Snowlover76 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Do you even look at anything? lol. The GFS looks crazy http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010500/162/snku_acc.us_c.pngMy back still hurts from shoveling all the snow the GFS has show this winter 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 With the warmth coming, that fluff usually gets nuked in the sunshine. Hopefully it sticks around because that would suck bad to see it disappear for you guys. A day at 40F will settle it (a bit), but we'd need 50's with a warm moist airmass, or hvy warm rain for the deeper areas he speaks of to go bare. Ofc, a 10-15 day stretch of 40's would do it as well. What's the secret to uploading into a post a short video?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Marshall scored yet another dbl digit below temp overnight at -11F Man this reminds me of those 90's in NMI - cold, cold, cold and tons of LES 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 A day at 40F will settle it (a bit), but we'd need 50's with a warm moist airmass, or hvy warm rain for the deeper areas he speaks of to go bare. Ofc, a 10-15 day stretch of 40's would do it as well. What's the secret to uploading into a post a short video??If those DP’s creep up, it won’t be good...and yes, it would take a good stretch of warm days/nights to completely whipe out the snow in the deeper LES belts, though doubtful. As for your vid, is it something you recorded? If so, might have to create a link for it. Have you uploaded it on a site somewhere? That would be the easiest way and share the link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 0z Euro trended towards the Gem somewhat for at least laying down a couple inches for this weekend. By 0z tonight we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect for the weekend. End of next week up for grabs at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 0z Euro trended towards the Gem somewhat for at least laying down a couple inches for this weekend. By 0z tonight we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect for the weekend. End of next week up for grabs at this point.Ya, even the 12z NAM has trended north with the accumulating snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Ya, even the 12z NAM has trended north with the accumulating snow. Lake Erie jack-pots! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Here is the 0z Gem run. Lets see how it matches up with the 12z Gem and 12z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Currently @ -2F w deep blue skies. Tbh, I can use a "January Thaw". It will feel nice for a change. As for the system this weekend. So far, couple inches looking likely, but its not all that impressive. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 @WestMJim Which Winter seems colder to you...... 2013-14 or this one? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 12z GFS likes NE and MSP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 994 just west of KC. Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 12z GFS...better for those out west, but not those in SE NE....there's your storm MN... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 The best looking storm at 500mb all season out in the central Plains....to bad it shears out...although, these finer details can be ironed out later, esp with teleconnections that support blocking... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Knowing the LRC's long term long wave trough position, I'm more inclined to believe a strengthening system cutting up towards the GL's.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 12z GEM getting on board with the GFS for late next week. Too bad it’s still an hour 138 dream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 f***** rain/snow line. In places that AREN'T screwed by the rain/snow line, GFS makes blizzard conditions look likely. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 This looks like a spring time storm set-up. Central Nebraska/Dakota/Minny special with the rain falling for us. Lots of time to change, just don't dry slot us we need the precip bad!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 @WestMJim Which Winter seems colder to you...... 2013-14 or this one?This year December at Grand Rapids had a mean of 24.4° In December 2013 the mean was 26.1° so this December was colder in snow fall This December GRR reported 32.9” in 2013 it was 34.7” so 2013 was a little snowier as of January 5th this year GRR had a seasonal total of 36.7” in 2014 as of January 5th the total was 45.9” so at this point in the winter of 2013/14 GRR had more snow fall. Note there was a 5 day January thaw in January from the 10th to the 14thAt Detroit December 2013 the mean temperature was 26.8° This year the mean was 26.6ׄ° so this December was just a little colder then 2013 at Detroit. As for snow fall in December of 2013 Detroit reported 15.5” of snow and this year it was 22.5” as of January 5th the seasonal snow fall in 2013/14 was 37.7” and this year it is now at 23.0” so the winter of 2013/14 was snowier but not colder at both Detroit and Grand Rapids. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I'm kinda cheering for rain. I have a flight that day. Sorry guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 If those DP’s creep up, it won’t be good...and yes, it would take a good stretch of warm days/nights to completely whipe out the snow in the deeper LES belts, though doubtful. As for your vid, is it something you recorded? If so, might have to create a link for it. Have you uploaded it on a site somewhere? That would be the easiest way and share the link. Tried, but having no success yet.. Anyhow, my surfing and posting time has really been cut into lately due to some pretty hardcore commuting conditions that are the snowiest for me in many years..perhaps since my days in the NMI snowbelts Around the Berrien/Van Buren cnty line: Downtown Hartford during a lul in the +SN Downtown Benton Harbor this morning after they plowed 7 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Tried, but having no success yet.. Anyhow, my surfing and posting time has really been cut into lately due to some pretty hardcore commuting conditions that are the snowiest for me in many years..perhaps since my days in the NMI snowbelts Around the Berrien/Van Buren cnty line: DSC00042.JPGDSC00046.JPGDSC00051.JPG Downtown Hartford during a lul in the +SN DSC00054.JPG Downtown Benton Harbor this morning after they plowed DSC00058.JPGAdd up that snowpack! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 This year December at Grand Rapids had a mean of 24.4° In December 2013 the mean was 26.1° so this December was colder in snow fall This December GRR reported 32.9” in 2013 it was 34.7” so 2013 was a little snowier as of January 5th this year GRR had a seasonal total of 36.7” in 2014 as of January 5th the total was 45.9” so at this point in the winter of 2013/14 GRR had more snow fall. Note there was a 5 day January thaw in January from the 10th to the 14thAt Detroit December 2013 the mean temperature was 26.8° This year the mean was 26.6ׄ° so this December was just a little colder then 2013 at Detroit. As for snow fall in December of 2013 Detroit reported 15.5” of snow and this year it was 22.5” as of January 5th the seasonal snow fall in 2013/14 was 37.7” and this year it is now at 23.0” so the winter of 2013/14 was snowier but not colder at both Detroit and Grand Rapids.Great info! That was where I was confused. Was not sure whether it was colder or snowier during that timeframe (13-14' vs this year). Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday on the GFS. Long ways to fall for it to switch to snow. I don't mind a little rain at the front if there's a quick switchover, but hate the storms that are 90% rain duration and then it snows for a couple of hours at the end. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 12z GFS has 7" in NW Lancaster and like 0.2" in SE. What a nightmare cutoff. 12z euro will be interesting, especially since last night's run was a KS/MO special. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 So, now that Grayson is outta the way, we will have to focus on Hunter. Lets see how this guy plays out. I am thinking since there is a very strong HP situated over the Carolina's, it pushes this system further north or North East, rather due east. Still some time for models to work this thing out. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I'm kinda cheering for rain. I have a flight that day. Sorry guysMe too actually. My wife is leaving town Thursday for the weekend leaving me a free man all weekend if she is gone with the kids. Snowstorm= no trip and no binge drinking for me 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday on the GFS. Long ways to fall for it to switch to snow. I don't mind a little rain at the front if there's a quick switchover, but hate the storms that are 90% rain duration and then it snows for a couple of hours at the end. I also don't like it when it snows several inches and then, afterwards changes to rain and melts off everything. That is another combo I dislike very much. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 These sharp cutoffs can be good or bad in Central Nebraska. Sometimes it goes to much Northwest and I am dry slotted. This is one to watch for sure, but not getting too excited. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 GEM looks very similar to the GFS. We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Canadian http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2018010512/168/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 UK is further south than the GFS. But frankly I'm going to be too far south and too far east for this storm. Iowa has been an SLP magnet these past two winters. Any reasonably strong storm has tracked right through the state just about everytime. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 This is a rather interesting fact comparing how cold N.A. has been lately:https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155032508346479/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Coldest place currently is Baudette, MN @ -26F....BRRRRRrrrrrrrr 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 This is a rather interesting fact comparing how cold N.A. Has been lately: https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155032508346479/ What? No AGW insinuations in that?? Bundle up, had -11F again last night in Marshall..pumping gas this morning it had warmed to -2F and without much wind was only a little uncomfortable. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 First glimpse into the long range that fits the period where I'm expecting a storm system. Remember the early Dec Blitz??? The current Bearing Sea monster??? I think it cycles through right around this period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I want to comment on the extended but the models cannot even figure out the near term. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 UK is further south than the GFS. But frankly I'm going to be too far south and too far east for this storm. Iowa has been an SLP magnet these past two winters. Any reasonably strong storm has tracked right through the state just about everytime. Eh a GFS model trend gif still doesn't lend to me punting yet. I still think that we are still in the range of possibility. (sorry the site wouldn't let me upload a gif) https://gfycat.com/MadWeeklyKawala Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 I want to comment on the extended but the models cannot even figure out the near term.Lol, good point but I'm only focusing on the general idea and not fixed on storm track right now. Data suggests a storm system during this period. That's all I'm saying amigo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Still -2F at noon with an expected high of 1F. Thankfully this should be the last day like this for a while. I need a break from the sting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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