jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 ^^^ Idk, but back in '14 this was the first day of a 33 day run of AOB the freezing mark in Marshall. Almost 40" of snow came during that streak as well #goodtimes Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro took a sig step towards gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 EURO weaker south. Thermals iffy. Concrete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Lets see if it will warm-up by weeks end. My temps keep dropping. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Still looks like it’s heading towards Iowa at hour 144. Need to see the next frame to be sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 EURO weaker south. Thermals iffy. ConcreteCheck out the differences in Canada between this run and 12z sun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z Euro pounds E NE/N IA/SE MN thru 156... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just north of Madison at 168. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Gosaints crush job... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Like all cutter systems, the placement of the HP to the north is going to be one of the important underlining factors where this system tracks. Normally, I'd shy away from starting a thread but I'm convinced a storm is in the making. And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168N/NW Wisco gets blasted with close to 2 feet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GL's monster in the making??? Would be nice to see for many on here but we all know how much the Euro likes to amp storms up in the 5-7 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GL's monster in the making??? Would be nice to see for many on here but we all know how much the Euro likes to amp storms up in the 5-7 range.Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Like all cutter systems, the placement of the HP to the north is going to be one of the important underlining factors where this system tracks. Normally, I'd shy away from starting a thread but I'm convinced a storm is in the making. N/NW Wisco gets blasted with close to 2 feet!Yeah id say thread time. All models have been showing it for a few days now.Im liking the stronger trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168You nervous being in the jackpot zone this early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah id say thread time. All models have been showing it for a few days now.Im liking the stronger trends.I'd wait. Remember what happened last time? 5-6 days is a really long time, and plenty to trend into a turd. I'd wait until 12z tomorrow, but that may just be me. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro 10:1 map http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011512/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_192.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 This was the 00z run; pretty solid shift SE. Keep it coming. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011500/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_192.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 You nervous being in the jackpot zone this early?Jack pot zone of one run 150 hours out... I would be nervous if this was 3 days out but not this range. Heck could still turn into nothing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yay! In the bullseye 6 days out. That usually ends up well. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I smell a southeast trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone...I have a good feeling about this one for some odd reason. Not saying we will be in the jackpot zone but we should see accumulating snowfall of several inches, especially if it keeps inching south. Liking the slow movement of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'd wait. Remember what happened last time? 5-6 days is a really long time, and plenty to trend into a turd. I'd wait until 12z tomorrow, but that may just be me. Nah, just title it Jan 21-22 Little wimpy mouse-turd storm. It's all about the title, can't go wrong.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 EURO weaker south. Thermals iffy. Concrete Shocker! Lol, we asked for some pattern other than strong NW trenders Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 From a poster elsewhere..I thought there's going to be some blocking in play, no? Teleconnections would favor a southern solution but there’s also lack of strong blocking to the north. Not really sure about this one. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Bring on the southward shift! Just a little bit..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I have a good feeling about this one for some odd reason. Not saying we will be in the jackpot zone but we should see accumulating snowfall of several inches, espcially if it keeps inching south. Liking the slow movement of this.Same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z EPS trends over the last 4 runs...missed the southern energy, ay??? It also is showing more separation from the lead wave across the north which would allow more HP to build across the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 There will be a storm to track..no doubt about that. Overwhelming support in the ensembles and my gut is telling me this one will deliver the goods to those who are lucky, esp knowing what its done in previous cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Gimme a foot or gimme rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 There will be a storm to track..no doubt about that. Overwhelming support in the ensembles and my gut is telling me this one will deliver the goods to those who are lucky, esp knowing what its done in previous cycles. Might as well start a thread.. Its what this thread will be filled with anyways. I can only imagine the model tugging we will be doing with this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z EPS trends over the last 4 runs...missed the southern energy, ay??? It also is showing more separation from the lead wave across the north which would allow more HP to build across the north. Can I get a truckload of that ASAP?!? Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Gimme a foot or gimme rain. Ehh, you'll golf in either, right? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I dont like seeing the EPS that far NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I dont like seeing the EPS that far NW.You’re in great shape Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Jack pot zone of one run 150 hours out... I would be nervous if this was 3 days out but not this range. Heck could still turn into nothingHaha. I’m just messing with you. People are so up and down 6 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Haha. I’m just messing with you. People are so up and down 6 days out.Part of the fun right.. I have excepted it. Snow weenie gonna snow weenie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 With such a large sub this will definitely be a tug-a-war system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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