Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol). Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06 or maybe 2011/12. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow.The models don’t want to cooperate? You mean the weather hasn’t wanted to cooperate so far. Contrary to popular belief, the models do not control the weather. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow. You do realize it's Jan 1 right? I know you would have said the same in 1989 and other years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here. Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold. They have us EC for January itself. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.There was also an insane east wind event in Tacoma with that. 60+ mph gusts, only east windstorm I ever recall there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Down to 30, going to be another chilly night. Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here. Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold. They have us EC for January itself.There is no way to know how it will play out... going to just have to see what happens. No use in trying to convince everyone. We all know it can fail even with everything lined up. We will have a better idea in 2-3 weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Down to 30, going to be another chilly night. Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat...Dry weather is chilly in the winter... its so nice when we have blocky years with extended dry periods. Even if we don't get much snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 There was also an insane east wind event in Tacoma with that. 60+ mph gusts, only east windstorm I ever recall there. I remember that event clearly. I drove to Tacoma just a couple of days later and there were a lot of uprooted trees. At my place the temperature bottomed out at 23 during the strong winds. That is a pretty serious cold shot when you figure in down sloping. Down to 30, going to be another chilly night.Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat... It would be quite insane for sure. I remember when I did my ranking of winters of since 1900... 2008-09 didn't even make the cut for a top 10% winter when all of the factors were weighed. It did come close though. That gives you an idea of how much more common really good winters used to be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It was a worst-case scenario from a low level perspective. From mid February sun angles to the backdoor trajectory to the void of any kind of transition event, it wasn't much to write home about. In addition to all that, it didn't line up with the calendar. Our 32 degree maximum on the afternoon of 2/17 was wasted with a 37 degree reading at midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It was very impressive, -14c 850mb temps over us. 2005-06 was generally interesting from mid February onwards. The early March trough was also impressive. The 11 degree high at Government Camp on 2/17 was really impressive. Latest on record. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Today was the 16th dry day here since the meteorological start of winter on 12/1. That is a really nice ratio... and it looks like it will generally continue. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February. 20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish. 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Holy crap. I don't necessarily trust the source, but according to this, snowfall was reported on 24/31 days during Jan 1950 at EUG. I'm in my 40's. Is it too much to ask for this to happen once in my lifetime? https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEUG/1950/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=1&yearend=1950&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, the ECWMF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February. 20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.January 22nd - 29th 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February. 20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.Feb 1989 was delicious. I'd be stoked for a repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Feb 1989 was delicious. I'd be stoked for a repeat.Was it like Feb 2014? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Was it like Feb 2014?No, it was much colder. We had a high of 17 and several days of single digit lows, including a low of 2. At least 8 inches of snow on the ground. Dexter Lake completely froze. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 The models don’t want to cooperate? You mean the weather hasn’t wanted to cooperate so far. Contrary to popular belief, the models do not control the weather.Prove it. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 You do realize it's Jan 1 right? I know you would have said the same in 1989 and other years.FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here. Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold. They have us EC for January itself.I do realize that but the medium and long range models look poor right now. The new CPC 30 day mean 500 MB OBS has ridging returning late January/early February. All the Arctic air heads east again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_30_maps.02.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February. 20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.It is indeed the next wishcaster's window. MLK is starting to become too real. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 In addition to all that, it didn't line up with the calendar. Our 32 degree maximum on the afternoon of 2/17 was wasted with a 37 degree reading at midnight.Yeah, makes it look that much more bland. I was in Gresham that afternoon and it was cold outside. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It is indeed the next wishcaster's window. MLK is starting to become too real.Sounds like you are looking to become a member of the pitchfork emporium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sounds like you are looking to become a member of the pitchfork emporium.I'll let you in on a little truth from above. No one knows for sure what's gonna happen over the next eight weeks. What we do know is sun angles will be MUCH higher after said eight weeks. Happy New Year!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is one of the more interesting Fraser outflow episodes I can remember. The cold air is paper thin and yet BLI continues to experience respectably cold outflow winds. There was a ton of cold air over southern BC for quite a while so it's taking a long time to play out. For all of the bellyaching about this winter so far it hasn't been that bad for the northern half of WA and some areas south of there also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is one of the more interesting Fraser outflow episodes I can remember. The cold air is paper thin and yet BLI continues to experience respectably cold outflow winds. There was a ton of cold air over southern BC for quite a while so it's taking a long time to play out. For all of the bellyaching about this winter so far it hasn't been that bad for the northern half of WA and some areas south of there also.It was extremely unlikely that this winter would match the last one for us so the only bellyaching should be from people who were torturously close to snow like Bryant and myself. And even then the lowland snowfall "drought" won't last forever. There will one day be another Dec 2008 or Jan 1950. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 I do realize that but the medium and long range models look poor right now. The new CPC 30 day mean 500 MB OBS has ridging returning late January/early February. All the Arctic air heads east again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_30_maps.02.gifI’m sure you realize a 30 day mean could look like a ridge even if it had 1 week of arctic air surrounded by 3 weeks of +PNA. Not likely but possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It was extremely unlikely that this winter would match the last one for us so the only bellyaching should be from people who were torturously close to snow like Bryant and myself. And even then the lowland snowfall "drought" won't last forever. There will one day be another Dec 2008 or Jan 1950.According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Prove it.I better find some evidence... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Joe Bastardi this morning said this east coast cold pattern won't last as long as models are showing. In this instance he was more directly referring to the CFS showing east coast cold for 3 months, but the message remains that he sees the PNW getting back to the nina state pattern.Did he say this on his twitter? Can you post a link to where he said this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Did he say this on his twitter? Can you post a link to where he said this?He did post something similar on twitter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 He did post something similar on twitterThanks, yeah I found it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020Lol, I don’t think I said that. Next winter will have a muted/neutral ENSO, though, and I’m thinking 2019/20 is a moderate Niño. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. Global warming freaks are going to freak out! Because the planet is not actually warming even if its entirely natural. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. Wow, didn't realize the air mass was that impressive. Insane winter so far in MT. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lol, I don’t think I said that. Next winter will have a muted/neutral ENSO, though, and I’m thinking 2019/20 is a moderate Niño.Oh, and the early 2020s will almost certainly be dominated by moderate/strong Niñas. Classic response at that stage of the geomag cycle. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Oh, and the early 2020s will almost certainly be dominated by moderate/strong Niñas. Classic response at that stage of the geomag cycle. Yeah, I remember noticing that awhile back. Most low points in the solar cycle the past century have featured multiple Ninas. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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