January Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6z GFS Ensembles best yet. Yakima 850mb is downright cold and potential for a massive backdoor blast.

chart(4).png

 

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12z GFS in 3 hours 14 minutes

At the very least things are looking good for a modified Arctic Blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS says. NOPE

[TT-SEA]

LOL...This is not a warm nose situation,.

OK... then its just not favorably geographically here without the benefit of cold air damning.

[Timmy]

32f moderate snow, 1” so far

[Front Ranger]

Seattle might have their big event of the winter during the first week of February in two consecutive years.

February could be making a comeback. 2011, 2014, 2017, and now maybe 2018.

[TT-SEA]

32f moderate snow, 1” so far

Nice! Elevation is key today. Except in the Hood Canal area which does well in this situation.

[Jesse]

GFS says. NOPE

 

The run isn't even out to day 6.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is still very much on board!

 

The full North America view of the maps are coming out much slower... but the CONUS view is done through 240 hours and you can see that it did not back down at all from the 00Z run.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how much better the GEM is. Up to about 1/2" now..,.About time to leave for the airport! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z GEM is still very much on board!

 

The full North America view of the maps are coming out much slower... but the CONUS view is done through 240 hours and you can see that it did not back down at all from the 00Z run.

Yeah, the GFS once again looks like it's going to be the last one to jump onboard. I guess that's why some people call it GooFuS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM would be a ton of snow up here...

[Kayla]

Looks like to me that the GFS is slowly coming around. 

[HighlandExperience]

Gem looks snowy for Seattle just ten days from now.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GEM is still very much on board!

 

The full North America view of the maps are coming out much slower... but the CONUS view is done through 240 hours and you can see that it did not back down at all from the 00Z run.

It is so different than the GFS it is hard to know what to think about it.

 

I bet it snows at your house later today.

 

36F rain here this morning

[TT-SEA]

It is so different than the GFS it is hard to know what to think about it.

 

I bet it snows at your house later today.

 

36F rain here this morning

 

No.. precip is coming through this morning.   925 temps are warmer this afternoon.

 

This is not a snow set-up for me... 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like to me that the GFS is slowly coming around. 

 

Something of a back door push.

[TT-SEA]

I literally cannot load Tropical Tidbits maps on my computer right now.   It takes 3 minutes to pull up one image.   But I can crank through everything on my phone with no delay. 

 

So frustrating.   Everything else loads fine.  

 

I am having visions of throwing this laptop off the upper deck and watching it smash it pieces.   

[Kayla]

Something of a back door push.

 

Yeah...trending towards the ECMWF. I feel like the operational GEM is the biggest outlier at this point in terms of how we get there. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I literally cannot load Tropical Tidbits maps on my computer right now.   It takes 3 minutes to pull up one image.   But I can crank through everything on my phone though. 

 

So frustrating.   Everything loads fine.  

 

I am having visions of throwing this laptop off the upper deck and watching it smash it pieces.   

Same here yesterday it was slow but fast on phone. It is not my firewall. 

[TT-SEA]

Something of a back door push.

 

Majestic block on the 12Z GFS.    Its would not take much to become something great like the GEM.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The trend on the gfs in good. It is so close to very good.

[ShawniganLake]

I literally cannot load Tropical Tidbits maps on my computer right now. It takes 3 minutes to pull up one image. But I can crank through everything on my phone with no delay.

 

So frustrating. Everything else loads fine.

 

I am having visions of throwing this laptop off the upper deck and watching it smash it pieces.

Does weatherbell have similar maps?

[Kayla]

Fantasyland GFS says Montana is the new Arctic circle. 486dm...ouch. 

[TT-SEA]

It is so different than the GFS it is hard to know what to think about it.

 

I bet it snows at your house later today.

 

36F rain here this morning

 

Not only is too warm at the 925mb level for me today... there is not even much precipitation around here by this afternoon.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not often you see a 1070 high in souther bc getting ready to attack us. Clown range or not impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Does weatherbell have similar maps?

 

Yes... I suppose.   Too much information there to sort though.   I like the easy view of Tropical Tidbits for the operational runs and WB for surface map details.   

 

But Tropical Tidbits is completely worthless to me right now.   I feel like its 1995 and I am looking at weather maps over a dial-up internet connection!  

[Guest El nina]

Some snow in the rain this morning, 37°. Currently laying in bed with a high fever for the second day in a row.

[Kayla]

-40C @850mb in west central Montana at hour 384.

 

Does anyone know what the 1989 arctic outbreak verified at for the NW?

[Kayla]

-43*F in Montana. No big deal.

 

 

Beat me to it! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That's a big boy up in Alaska. Woah.

 

That is incredible. 

[ShawniganLake]

[Timmy]

The gefs hasn’t improved over the 06z through day 11. Ridge is slightly closer to the coast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Those Mounains way in the distance are buried.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Son called said it is white at home. Here is union and hoodsport.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles aren’t great.

[TT-SEA]

There must be some offshore flow today.

 

The radar shows solid precip here but there are only a few sprinkles...  37 degrees now.  

[Timmy]

GFS ensembles aren’t great.

curious though, although it makes sense with the nature of the beast we are looking at, the graphed may look better because the GEFS is just the mean, right?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[snow maniac]

Son called said it is white at home. Here is union and hoodsport.

light snow here also.

[Timmy]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi