January Weather In the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

We now have good ensemble agreement on the pattern over the next two weeks. I thought the tropics were in our favour.

[Jesse]

We. Now have good ensemble agreement on the pattern over the next two weeks. I thought the tropics were in our favour.

Wow. Super torch.

[HighlandExperience]

Just read that Tokyo recently had its coldest day time high in 48 years.

 

Feels like everyone is getting hit with record cold except us lol

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. Super torch.

Super fugly

[ShawniganLake]

Long range looks like one of our rare DRY +PNA ridges.

[umadbro]

Balmy and very pleasant 55 degrees in Newberg.

[Timmy Supercell]

Enjoying a bit of freezing frog this morning. Going to be a break from relatively any weather I think for at least the next 5 days.

[MossMan]

Still hope for a Feb. 2011 redux!

[Timmy Supercell]

Still hope for a Feb. 2011 redux!

 

That must have been a Washington event since I recall some rains that month here at my elevation just a few months after moving here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just read that Tokyo recently had its coldest day time high in 48 years.

 

Feels like everyone is getting hit with record cold except us lol

I have to admit it is kind of depressing. — I do believe things will happen for us “someday”. From a meteorological standpoint I have to admit this year is incredibly interesting from a global performance and perspective.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That must have been a Washington event since I recall some rains that month here at my elevation just a few months after moving here.

Wasn’t bad in Oregon either.

[MossMan]

Sure has been a fantastic El Niño winter!!

 

oh wait...

[HighlandExperience]

I have to admit it is kind of depressing. — I do believe things will happen for us “someday”. From a meteorological standpoint I have to admit this year is incredibly interesting from a global performance and perspective.

Yup agreed. Sad to think just a few days ago the Euro was showing an arctic front coming down over us.

[Jesse]

Sure has been a fantastic El Niño winter!!

oh wait...

Don’t steal my bit!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How bout that Euro?!

[Farmboy]

We now have good ensemble agreement on the pattern over the next two weeks. I thought the tropics were in our favour.

So how many members were showing bsf vs. cold air? Couldn't that just as easily flip back to showing colder solutions?

[Jesse]

So how many members were showing bsf vs. cold air? Couldn't that just as easily flip back to showing colder solutions?

All the cold members are basically gone now.

[ShawniganLake]

All the cold members are basically gone now.

Yea there aren’t any cold members left on the GFS. The GEM is another story.

[Jesse]

Yea there aren’t any cold members left on the GFS. The GEM is another story.

I haven’t seen the GEM yet.

[ShawniganLake]

[Farmboy]

So weird, and to think there was such a decent signal for cold air a few days ago. Well, maybe it'll flip back.. it's only been a few runs showing the ridge over us, yet you guys act as though it's set in stone, shouldn't we wait until we see future runs before getting too hasty?

[umadbro]

So weird, and to think there was such a decent signal for cold air a few days ago. Well, maybe it'll flip back.. it's only been a few runs showing the ridge over us, yet you guys act as though it's set in stone, shouldn't we wait until we see future runs before getting too hasty?

This whole winter has been based on waiting for future runs. It it what it is.

[Jesse]

Easterlies holding on at PDX with 51. Aurora has switched to southerlies and is up to 56 though.

[MossMan]

Getting breezy again.

[Bryant]

So we have the people who don't really even know what they're talking about, but feed off the negativity and act like they knew it all along (luvssnow). We also have the people who moved east to a snowier climate but continue to troll because it makes them feel better (crf450ish).

[weather girl]

I am the first to admit that I am really bad at reading models.  But I have lived here long enough to know that we are likely heading into a really miserable spring and early summer.  At this point, I'm not really sure a pattern flip would have changed that. I did think it would flip this month, though.  Summer cancel?    

[Jesse]

I am the first to admit that I am really bad at reading models. But I have lived here long enough to know that we are likely heading into a really miserable spring and early summer. At this point, I'm not really sure a pattern flip would have changed that. I did think it would flip this month, though. Summer cancel?

You just got on Dewey’s list.

[Front Ranger]

A lot of people based on what I see posted on here. Puyallupjon, luvssnow, Phil and a couple others and myself seem to be the rare few who understand that 99.9% of the time, western WA & western OR will NOT have cold and snowy winters. It just doesn't happen anymore. Maybe one day it will be like it was in the 50's 60's 70's and 80's......but until then, expect what has been the norm for the last 30 years. No amount of wish casting or mode analysis/riding is going to change that. Period.

I thought you were predicting low solar would be delivering colder winters?

 

And as someone else pointed out, Phil was predicting a very cold January for the PNW.

 

So basically, nothing you're saying is really adding up or making sense.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am the first to admit that I am really bad at reading models. But I have lived here long enough to know that we are likely heading into a really miserable spring and early summer. At this point, I'm not really sure a pattern flip would have changed that. I did think it would flip this month, though. Summer cancel?

Well, persistent spring troughing through early July at least. Very wet spring incoming. Feels like it often happens after a blowtorch winter.

[James Jones]

Is Tim dead? I figured he wouldn't be able to contain himself after seeing that 12z GFS run.

 

Pretty unreal to see a run like that during a Nina. Warmest Nina winter other than '33-'34?

[Jesse]

SLE up to 59. PDX at 54.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is Tim dead? I figured he wouldn't be able to contain himself after seeing that 12z GFS run.

 

Pretty unreal to see a run like that during a Nina. Warmest Nina winter other than '33-'34?

 

And easily the worst/most boring winter since I moved here in 1989.  02-03 might be tied with it.  What's crazy is 02-03 was a Nino.  This Nina was even worse than that three-peat in the late 90s-early 00s.  At least the Central Willamette Valley had some marginal snow events those years.  This is now 3 years out of 4 with nothing here.  I don't think that has happened since I moved here either. Depressing.

[Jesse]

Is Tim dead? I figured he wouldn't be able to contain himself after seeing that 12z GFS run.

 

Pretty unreal to see a run like that during a Nina. Warmest Nina winter other than '33-'34?

 

It looks like his most recent post was the night before last around 10pm. But for him even going half a day without posting is really unusual.

 

For the last time his account was active it says private, which I thought was a little strange.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro shows 10 days of warm front rain thru the first week of February. YVR has only had 1 dry day since January 3rd. Hard to think we are cruising towards a wet spring.

[James Jones]

It looks like his most recent post was the night before last around 10pm. But for him even going half a day without posting is really unusual.

 

For the last time his account was active it says private, which I thought was a little strange.

 

That is odd. My post was like 10% serious, this is definitely his longest hiatus since I joined the forum. Hopefully the dude's alright.

[kokaneekidz]

Euro shows 10 days of warm front rain thru the first week of February. YVR has only had 1 dry day since January 3rd. Hard to think we are cruising towards a wet spring.

It seems the arctic front just can;t make it past the Coast Range in early Feb. Then it shows it pummelling all the way down to Mexico which seems more unusual than it coming here... Tired of our bad luck !!!

[Jesse]

Euro shows 10 days of warm front rain thru the first week of February. YVR has only had 1 dry day since January 3rd. Hard to think we are cruising towards a wet spring.

 

Tim's back! He's ok guys!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Wasn’t bad in Oregon either.

 

Yeah but I recall nothing over the top for snowfall in single events for the mountains or east sides. More or less average. Even though the season itself was a bit above average for my area there was no ground accumulations above about 6-7 inches all at once.

[Phil]

Phil predicted a three week arctic blast this month.

 

So are you recommending we shut the forum down.

Two of my greatest seasonal busts of all time..both occurring within a span of six months. To say I’m frustrated would be an understatement.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah but I recall nothing over the top for snowfall in single events for the mountains or east sides. More or less average.

Major late season arctic air mass. I think a 33/19 day at PDX on the 27th.