Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Depending on what the first wave does the goalposts are wide for the second one...Stebow just said that’s as far west as you’ll see the secondary low tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 It is interesting though that models are placing more emphasis on the secondary wave and having it as strong as it is, normally the first wave gets priority and the second one isn't ever really allowed to develop. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Stebow just said that’s as far west as you’ll see the secondary low thoI like where u are if the first piece is over played... Of course the northern stream could dominate as well.. As could the first piece.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Okay I brain farted Money. For some reason when you said second wave I thought you meant the clipper that's coming here Friday. Yeah the ACTUAL second wave is potent. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Id be so pissed if ours went to and chicago got slammed with 2nd wave lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I like where u are if the first piece is over played... Of course the northern stream could dominate as well.. As could the first piece..Yup a lot of moving parts. Going to be a lot of people fighting for this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 What ever happens let’s all not freak out and just admire the fact Mother Nature is a teaser!! Here in nebraska we might get hit or we might not. Regardless I’m thinking we’re all going to be just fine this winter, Things will change for the better for us! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yup a lot of moving parts. Going to be a lot of people fighting for thisYa including Stebow. 1. First wave dominates it's cutting hard and I think I could see a Rainer. 2. first wave is a dud or not there. Depending where the energy ejects track could be all over with the main event. There isn't solid snow cover anywhere... Especially by the end of the week. 3. If it's somewhere in between and there is a decent first wave then Stebow might be right, but I also think the Euro shows about as perfect of a scenario for that as there can be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Id be so pissed if ours went to s**t and chicago got slammed with 2nd wave lolWhy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 ^^^lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm Lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm Lol.Oh OK.. Can't wait to read your complaints if that happens... If this storm does hit you then maybe you won't hit the board with same posts the next time you get missed. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gonna pretend like i didnt read that comment. Anywsys i doubt that will happen Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 You said this storm was over etc yesterday tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 It would take an epic fail by the models for this to completely miss us. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I mean climo this time of year would argue Chicago should be more likely to get this storm compared to Omaha right?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Be interesting to see how the euro ensembles look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I mean climo this time of year would argue Chicago should be more likely to get this storm compared to Omaha right??Climo does not determine the track or amounts for one storm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Climo does not determine the track or amounts for one storm.This is true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I know Tom is lurking. What’s your thoughts on the secondary system?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z nam was much colder for Wednesday in the 30s. Thats interesting Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Something about the way that the euro handles the dissipating of the first wave seems a bit off to me. I can't exactly pinpoint what it is. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Looks fine to be. Hopefully all the snow is gone this week so I can get out in the yard and start working on the golf game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I know Tom is lurking. What’s your thoughts on the secondary system??I am, but today I'm not quite 100% and haven't been posting much and just reading everyone's posts while I re cooperate. I've been in the kitchen whipping up some good soup to detox! Anyhow, this season I've seen many times the southern energy becomes the dominant player. There have been several examples of this in Oct and in Nov. The 12z Euro op had a very strong 500mb vorticity track due west/east across the southern Plains, of which, a piece of energy did track up towards the W GL's, however, the main show dug towards the Texarkana region and looked like several systems in the past that took this track (Oct 9th-11th, Oct 22nd-24th, Nov 17th-18th, Nov 28-29th) and then eventually cuts NE up the OV as the Atlantic ridge steers the storm while phasing with the northern stream. Just glanced at the 12z EPS and it has weakened the 1st wave and focusing more energy on the southern piece. The snow mean has lessened out west and picked up substantially in IL/IN/OH/MI as there are many more members (some even have snow down into S MO/TN/KY. The 4" snow mean is as far west as Chicago/Indy and points east and north do better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 North Platte's -- Special Weather Statement ...POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A storm system will move across the region Wednesday night intoThursday. It appears that at least light snow accumulations arelikely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At this time it isuncertain if heavy snow will occur. Regardless, strong north windswith gusts over 40 mph and rapidly falling temperatures throughthe teens can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.Visibility will likely be restricted late Wednesday night intoThursday morning due to blowing snow. This would even occur withjust light snow accumulations. Please stay tuned for laterforecast statements regarding this potential winter storm. OAX -- HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through SaturdayA winter storm is forecast to move onto the central Plains Wednesdaynight into Thursday. While the specific details remain uncertainthis far out, confidence remains somewhat high that at least someportion of the outlook area could experience a few inches of snowalong with blowing and drifting snow and sharply colder temperatures.Please stay tuned to later outlooks as details become more clearlater this week.Additional snow chances are in the forecast both Friday andSaturday as a couple of clipper systems move through the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 18z nam has a 995.5 L in central OK at 84. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I like the direction NAM is going. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nam looks compact and intense Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Trends in the EPS indicating a neg tilt trough somewhere along the OV...this is for the secondary piece of energy...if trends persist over the next day or two, might want to consider extending the dates on this thread or maybe create a new separate one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nam looks compact and intenseLol it’s weakening it by the end of the run already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Getting excited by the nam this far out is a bad idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I like the direction NAM is going.What run was I looking at? 18z looks awful. Way too fast and thin to produce anything really good here. Still shows a defo band which may provide for some good rates but behind that there's almost nothing. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 18z GFS thru hr 78 is stronger at 988. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Man, GFS is just not budging with this. Sure, it moves a little, but for this far out it is so consistent. Hoping other models cave to it. I will start thinking this materializes if we have some consensus still on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfs by far strongest with the first wave Almost 5 mb stronger than nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 DMX talking potential blizzard conditions- -PoPs will then increase sharply into Wed Night as the stormapproaches. Although typical differences exits in the details atthis time range, the 12z ECMWF, GFS and CMC all depict animpactful winter storm for some portion of Iowa. The leadingwarm/theta-e advection surge may not result in much but there isan abrupt and sharp increase in frontogenetic forcing and responsealong and north of the surface front Wed Night and is quicklyfollowed by an equally strong mid level kinematic DPVA anddeformation contribution. This phases into deep and strong forcingWed Night into Thu morning with with EC and GFS both very similarin this evolution resulting in increased confidence for this timerange. QPF amounts are similar as well and show moderate to heavysnow amounts across the NW half of Iowa with a tight MSLPgradient boosting sustained winds to 15-20kts. The mixing depthdoes not appear too deep, but the strength of the system andpressure gradient would still support gusts of 30-35kts. Thedegree of forcing and subsequent precip rates, phased with thesewinds, could support appreciable blowing snow potentiallyapproaching or exceeding blizzard criteria. It is of course tooearly for confidence in this materializing to be too high, but iscertainly something to watch and consider in the coming days withthe EC, GFS and CMC all suggesting QPF around a half inch in thedeformation zone. The lift in the Dendritic Growth Zone and it`sdepth does not appear to be significant per the GFS at this point,but even snow ratios toward climatology /13:1/ in this QPF wouldproduce appreciable accumulations. Elevated values well throughthe 90th percentile of precipitable water, specific humidity andintegrated water vapor transport just ahead of this system per the12z NAEFS would support this fairly high QPF amounts as well. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yeah. Just wish it wasn't so progressive with it. The precip is completely out of here by sunrise on that run. Not good considering it has the changeover just after midnight and it'll take a bit for accumulations to start happening. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Regardless of amounts, I can see blizzard warnings going up for the Plains. With gusts up to 45mph possible, any snow that does fall will blow like crazy. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 GFS is making Friday's clipper look stronger. May kinda make up for missing the first wave for Iowa. Especially in James' area. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Stronger with the secondary low 12+ for nw Ohio and Detroit area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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