St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wasn’t supposed to start snowing here until around 2-3pm, but a band of snow has developed and is pushing up from the SW. Nothing heavy at the moment. 2-5” in the point for today. Too bad the Vikings don’t play outdoors. Currently -2F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 d**n, 12z NAM picking up on a solid lake plume hugging the shoreline of WI/IL! #BonusAwesome! Score a nice one today Tom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I did not believe this clipper would hold together but trends are actually looking better with each run. Wild card is lake enhanced but pivot point is favorablle for the area. Long duration event will actually feel like winter for the 1st time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I did not believe this clipper would hold together but trends are actually looking better with each run. Wild card is lake enhanced but pivot point is favorablle for the area. Long duration event will actually feel like winter for the 1st time.And then it melts next week when that system cuts west of us lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Big warm-up next week.....possibly 50s and rain in the forecast. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 And then it melts next week when that system cuts west of us lolHuh, I haven’t even looked at the models past today’s event. Maybe 40 here on Friday. That sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'll take what I can get at this point. Not worried about next weekend just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 If the current band is any indication, ratios with the main event later today are gonna be as high as predicted. Nice fatty flakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 If the current band is any indication, ratios with the main event later today are gonna be as high as predicted. Nice fatty flakes.Glad to hear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z GFS continue the wetter theme! I see you Lehs...MSP/LSE and points SE towards N IN do very well...LOT's prob gonna pull the trigger... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011412/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 First flakes are flying out here. Seems dry air is being overcome. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Grid forecast increased to 3-6 in. nice to see an increase over the last couple of days. Lets just hope it works out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Light snow for a while now. That was not predicted. Ground is white already. Clipper is still way up in Dakotas and MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z GGEM...a little more love than the others... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011412/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not even the current hour run of the HRRR has picked up on the band currently hitting MN and IA. This has overachiever written all over it. About 0.25” down already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there?They'll prob wait till the afternoon AFD. I'd be shocked if they don't. Latest 12z GEFS has a 2.5"-3" mean at 10:1 over N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not even the current hour run of the HRRR has picked up on the band currently hitting MN and IA. This has overachiever written all over it. About 0.25” down already.Looks like there is a band also coming down from the north out ahead of this thing right now. In the St. Cloud area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks like there is a band also coming down from the north out ahead of this thing right now. In the St. Cloud area.Yeah we should see that whole area fill in on the radar. That’s probably what’s happening now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there?This must be where the offices use their own judgement when issuing advisories. MPX calling this a healthy clipper and 2-5” in the forecast, but they say this is ‘not headline worthy.’ Advisory or not, we’re all getting a good snow today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z Euro...looks about the same over here but also filled in out in IA... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Update from MKX... Lake effect threat seems to be growing. I'm not sure if I'm going to get the brunt, but its going to be close. Continuing to evaluate the need to raise snowfall accumulations inthe northern and eastern areas near Lake Michigan. This would bedue to the lake enhanced snow band pivoting southward throughthese areas Monday into Monday evening, and for lake effect snowexpected later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need toraise amounts a few inches in these areas.Also contemplating the need for a Winter Storm Warning forSheboygan south to Milwaukee County, given the possible higheramounts and impact on the Monday/Tuesday morning commutes. Thelake enhanced band will continue to be the variable that will bemost tricky to pin down, thus the most uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Snow all over S Dakota. Makes me feel pretty good over here. Euro latching onto that. Maybe ill get 3" out of this yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I think it is pretty dumb that the NWS isn't issuing a WWA given the snow forecasts along with the wind and cold to follow. It really doesn't make any sense. In many cases the snowfall alone actually meets criteria and they still aren't issuing one. I have a feeling they will issue one after conditions have already deteriorated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Snow all over S Dakota. Except here; though there were a few stray flakes at noon with a temperature of 40 F. This is the worst place on the planet for snow...and no reasonable person could argue the contrary. People talk about an "OmahaDome"...they should try three months here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Except here; though there were a few stray flakes at noon with a temperature of 40 F. This is the worst place on the planet for snow...and no reasonable person could argue the contrary. People talk about an "OmahaDome"...they should try three months here. Gee, I just took a look out the window a second ago and all of a sudden it is snowing nicely. The reverse psychology must have worked... *Smirks* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 or 4 heavier bands setting up between here and St Cloud. Time to get down to business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Milwaukee issues a Wintet Storm Warning for lakeshore counties for 8-10 Going with 5.7 here on their map 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 You can clearly see the LE band set up tomorrow on the nam http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011418&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=022 Sits in the same areas for hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 light snow has begun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 WWA for Chicagoland. Radar filling North and West 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gettin’ blitzed. Vis down to 0.5 mi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 HRRR has no snow in WI or Minneapolis right now http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2018011419&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 HRRR has no snow in WI or Minneapolis right now http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2018011419&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=Yep, it’s ridiculous. We’re getting raked over the coals. Makes you wonder if the models have any clue about this thing. Might be better to watch the radar trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The bonus snow right now isn't bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The bonus snow right now isn't badBig flakes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Anyone know what the ratios are predicted to look like for this storm? Haven’t paid much attention over the past few days except looking at a few model runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Anyone know what the ratios are predicted to look like for this storm? Haven’t paid much attention over the past few days except looking at a few model runs.La Crosse feeling 20:1 as are most models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just left the gym and crushed legs! First flakes are flying and they have good size to them. No virga issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Big flakes?Yes nice floaters. Not giant but good dendritic stuff none the less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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