GDR Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Gfs back north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Gfs back north. Looks like most of the gefs members went north also. Towel in hand getting ready! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 00z EPS steadfast on a general C NE/MSP/N WI special...I think St Paul is in a good spot along with SE MN to see the jackpot at this range. Knowing how this system performed in the previous cycle it is hard to argue. Lack of any truly strong HP will allow this system to cut towards the W GL's. 00z GEFS snow mean is a tad south but if the storm does in fact end up being stronger it'll trend NW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 I’m not sure if it’s possible for SLPs to avoid Iowa. At least I’ll get to see 995 or lower on the barometer with some drizzle. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 I’m not sure if it’s possible for SLPs to avoid Iowa. At least I’ll get to see 995 or lower on the barometer with some drizzle.We will have our chances after this system moves on. This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 We will have our chances after this system moves on. This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month. There should be a system around the 26th that tracks across southern Missouri and central Illinois that should deliver. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 There should be a system around the 26th that tracks across southern Missouri and central Illinois that should deliver.Co-sign....I agree, fits the LRC and East Asian Rule to the "T"...lets hope it can deliver the goods... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 We will have our chances after this system moves on. This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month. I think you’re right. The pattern looks pretty active to close out the month. I bet you guys downstream do well in a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 I think you’re right. The pattern looks pretty active to close out the month. I bet you guys downstream do well in a few weeks.I think earlier, than later...but yes, I agree, this is the best pattern of the season that is transpiring this weekend into early Feb to produce favorable storm systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 I can’t wait I love tracking these powerful storms!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Gotta admit, I'm kinda surprised at my point click forecast. I guess they're saying snow Sunday morning in case it starts early. I'm not sure about their "likely" wording on the rain in the afternoon, though. SundayA chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.Sunday NightRain likely before 7pm, then rain and snow likely between 7pm and 8pm, then snow likely after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 This run is very likely to go north. High pressure in Canada isn't very strong and surface low is much stronger in Colorado. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 GFS going north it appears thru hr 90. Looks like it’s getting its act together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 This run is very likely to go north. High pressure in Canada isn't very strong and surface low is much stronger in Colorado.MSP special all day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 MSP special all day...Even MSP is in jeopardy with this run.... Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Might be going too far west. Thermals an issue early. Pound town by 114 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yup a bigger push nw and the low is further w tracking through Iowa. Looks like a good rain maker for a few Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Punting. Although in hindsight we didn't have much of a chance anyway. Not sure if there'll ever be a day when a low tracks from STL to Chicago. Nowadays it always seems to be from Des Moines to La Crosse. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Sub 990 on this run. Watch this thing wind up and fly to the Arrowhead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Thru mby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Even MSP is in jeopardy with this run....True, it was last cycle also so something to monitor going forward... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Punting. Although in hindsight we didn't have much of a chance anyway. Not sure if there'll ever be a day when a low tracks from STL to Chicago. Nowadays it always seems to be from Des Moines to La Crosse. Dec '12 bliz Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Huge shift NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Huge shift NW.Nail biter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Sub 990 on this run. Watch this thing wind up and fly to the Arrowhead.Has always been on the table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Huge shift NW.Lol whats that weenie bullseye imby from?? Seriously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Occlusion could be the wildcard with this system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Well, there is my bullseye run before it goes even NW of me. It is cool to see a storm that appears to be able to gets it act together (as of now). Still time to turd out like has been the trend this season, but provides some hope nonetheless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 12Z GFS nice hit for Central Nebraska. Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Well, there is my bullseye run before it goes even NW of me. It is cool to see a storm that appears to be able to gets it act together (as of now). Still time to turd out like has been the trend this season, but provides some hope nonetheless!Far from over for you. Is a wet system on the table for you? Sure but there are ways for you to stay in the game for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Nail biter?If this shift took place within 24-36 hours I’d be concerned. But these 100 mile shifts will likely continue for a few days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 12Z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 If this shift took place within 24-36 hours I’d be concerned. But these 100 mike shifts will likely continue for a few days bRight... If i had to put money down I would bet on a hard cut like the GFS shows, but still way to far out to talk in terms of absolutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Snow January.png12Z GFS You prob have the best chance in NE to score a nice hit from this one. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Canadian shifted NW as well, Oma-dome in full force... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011712/138/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Far from over for you. Is a wet system on the table for you? Sure but there are ways for you to stay in the game for surePerhaps I was a bit vague. I don't have any reason to think this would be over at all. I was just thinking that without the HP up north this could skirt up that way, but at this range I just like to look at large scale things. As of now it doesn't appear that the split flow aloft will be as annoying as it has been this season with weakening and taking storms south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Well, there is my bullseye run before it goes even NW of me. It is cool to see a storm that appears to be able to gets it act together (as of now). Still time to turd out like has been the trend this season, but provides some hope nonetheless!You’re in the northern part of the TC metro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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