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February 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The 12z Euro Control now properly destroys SW South Dakota with a delightful blizzard.

 

Like I said; these things sometimes take time...

 

*Evil Grin*

 

It disappeared again at 12z today...at least for out here.

 

This is troubling; if the storm does not come, I may have to take matters into my own hands as that hierophant was instructed during his investiture quite some time ago...

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I woke up a few times last night from the howling and gusting winds out of West and my window is west-facing.  Some reports of 50-60mph wind gusts earlier tonight:

 

 

59mph Michigan City

54mph Valparaiso

52mph Bartlett

48mph Midway

 

58 mph Bolingbrook
56 mph Munster, IN (2:02AM)
55 mph Chicago-Albany Park (1:46AM
54 mph Glendale Heights (1:29AM)
54mph Chicago-Roscoe Village (2:56AM)

 

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Late season sledding up north looks ideal with a widespread 10-20"+ snow depth across the Northwoods into the U.P...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northern_Great_Lakes/nsm_depth/201802/nsm_depth_2018022505_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201802/nsm_depth_2018022505_Upper_Midwest.jpg

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Lot of wind out there. Currently under a wind advisory. Gorgeous weather shaping up of next week w Spring-Like temps. Speaking of Spring, 23 days left until it arrives. Time is running out for cities that are averaging below normal. ;) As far as I am concern, I stand pretty good this Winter, so if my area receives no more snow, then, I am fine w that. Detroit kicked a** this Winter, especially the burbs where I am at!  :lol: 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Winter of 2017-18 Records set at Detroit, MI

*records go to 1880 for snow, 1872 for temps/precip)

 

Daily Records:

Nov 1: Record snow Trace

Dec 13: Record snow 6.3”

Dec 27: Record low -4F

Jan 11: Record high min 43F

Feb 9: Record snow 9.2”

 

Monthly Records:

December: 5th snowiest December on record 22.5”

February: 11th snowiest February on record 21.0” THRU 2/19/18

 

Record Cold Snap:

12 consecutive days (December 26 - January 6) failed to reach 20F in Detroit. My area remained in the S.D's for highs.

 

Oddity: Heavy Snowfall in February the last decade:

7 of the top 11 snowiest February’s have occurred since 2008

Not bad at all. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Lot of wind out there. Currently under a wind advisory. Gorgeous weather shaping up of next week w Spring-Like temps. Speaking of Spring, 23 days left until it arrives. Time is running out for cities that are averaging below normal. ;) As far as I am concern, I stand pretty good this Winter, so if my area receives no more snow, then, I am fine w that. Detroit kicked a** this Winter, especially the burbs where I am at!  :lol:

 

By June 15, 2018...I will have more snow than you.

 

I'll bet you a penny...as that is all I can afford on my salary.

 

I know I already owe you a penny from last time...so I need to get my money back.

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With 3 days left in February I thought it would be a good time to see where several locations are in the seasonal snow fall totals we have 1 location still in the running for the least seasonal snow fall total.

Alpena with just 37.1” of snow fall this season is still in the running for the least seasonal snow fall total of 43.8” that was set in 2010

Grand Rapids  66.8”

Muskegon   91.6”

Lansing   45.3”

Detroit   52.7”

Flint 65.7”

Saginaw  31.1”

West Branch   28.7”

Houghton Lake   34.9”

Gaylord     92.2”

Petoskey   99.9”

Sault Ste Marie    87.6”

Marquette    110.0”

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I woke up a few times last night from the howling and gusting winds out of West and my window is west-facing.  Some reports of 50-60mph wind gusts earlier tonight:

 

 

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Dittos!  Up around 50 mph over in my area

 

0433 AM NON-TSTM WND GST W K KELLOGG AIRPORT 42.31N 85.25W

02/25/2018 M48 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

 

0430 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL 42.23N 85.55W

02/25/2018 M48 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION AZO, KZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL

AIRPORT.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Today's 12z Euro buries MN again...pretty looking map...St Paul, get out the yard stick!  All kidding aside, that would be a wonderful track for your region.

Starting to close in on it. 200 hours and counting. ;) 

 

Really nice out there today. Stuff is melting away with the high sun angle and the moderating temperatures. My quinzee is going to melt though ;(

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Looking forward to seeing sunshine today through Tuesday which has been non existent here over the last week or longer.  Lot's of peeps will be enjoying the outdoors for "Taco Tuesdays" in Chitown with temps in the low 60's!

 

Heck yeah Tom.  And tomorrow in honor of the beautiful weather, im firing up the grill and making tomorrow Steak Taco Tuesday.

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Honestly don't mind this dry pattern. Hoping to get the snow piles outta here and get the frost layer outta here too. Then I would love a warm, wet Spring so corn and soybeans can be planted earlier cuz I hate looking at blank, snowless fields.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It's now up to 62, here, the first 60 of the year.  B)

 

There's still plenty of thawing to do.  The river, lakes, and ponds are still mostly frozen over and my lawn is still frozen in the shady areas.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This March 3rd Storm has now disappeared entirely.

 

Will it come back?

 

As Judge Rayford once said; while high above eastern Maryland on a winter day in 1979:

 

"Maybe; maybe not"

 

That storm that I have been chatting about for a couple of weeks look rather inauspicious on the 0z runs; maybe the European will be the first to breathe new life into it in an hour or so.

 

It would be a refreshing change for a storm to strengthen; rather than diminish, on the models as the actual day of the storm draws near.

 

It has not snowed here in the past 8 days; and that should extend to at least 12 days...before the next chance of snow presents itself on Sunday.

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Last day of February, first morning of 2018 where I woke up to singing birds. 32.4°F.

 

The red-winged blackbirds showed up here late yesterday afternoon.  Walking outside and hearing those calls from the treetops is always the first real sign of spring.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I don't know if you guys are aware, but the flooding down by Davenport on the Illinois side is some of the worst I've seen. I drove through the area on Sunday and was blown away--there are houses off the Rock River that are almost completely underwater because of the ice jams. It's insane. They're at the point where they'll likely have to be demolished afterwards.

 

 

Speaking of flooding, anyone remember 2008 in Nebraska/Iowa?

 

Cedar Rapids:

 

http://wendolonia.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/mays_island.jpg

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Speaking of flooding, anyone remember 2008 in Nebraska/Iowa?

 

Cedar Rapids:

 

http://wendolonia.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/mays_island.jpg

 

Oh, yeah, that historic flood may never be approached again.  For a hundred years, the Cedar River's max crests had always been in the 18-20 ft range, with nothing more than 20.  In 2008, it hit 31 ft.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last day of February, first morning of 2018 where I woke up to singing birds. 32.4°F.

 

The red-winged blackbirds showed up here late yesterday afternoon.  Walking outside and hearing those calls from the treetops is always the first real sign of spring.

 

Here in St. Joe the 1st Robins of spring were sitting in a tree singing as well..sure signs that whatever is left of winter won't be too harsh..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The sun came out a couple hours ago and the temp has surged well into the 50s again, with light wind.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

 

12z European with a huge step in the right direction; as a Low cuts off and lingers in eastern SD...putting down copious amounts of snow.

 

Still about 75 miles too far to my east to get into the excellent snows; but getting progressively closer and still two or three days to work with.

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12z European with a huge step in the right direction; as a Low cuts off and lingers in eastern SD...putting down copious amounts of snow.

 

Still about 75 miles too far to my east to get into the excellent snows; but getting progressively closer and still two or three days to work with.

 

The control run at least another 75 miles east of the operational...though some of the individual members were good snow events in this locale.

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