TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 We're f*cked. King GFS says otherwise. ECMWF has been relegated to just an amusing jester. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 9 highs... get toasty down south while there is actually some snow in WA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Not going to post 10 day map... suffice to say its much warmer than day 9. Just about 50 in most places. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Really lame how dry this looks. Still lots of time to change I suppose! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Really lame how dry this looks. Still lots of time to change I suppose! I would say the time to change would normally be narrowing down at this point but the models are all over the place. GFS solution would be epic... ECMWF solution would likely not even be remembered. And this all starts in 120 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The euro temp maps are comical. Not even close. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I would say the time to change would normally be narrowing down at this point but the models are all over the place. GFS solution would be epic... ECMWF solution would likely not even be remembered. And this all starts in 120 hours.The 12z run had better snowfall. Crossing fingers for tommorow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The euro temp maps are comical. Not even close. This is a silly statement. Day 7... sunshine and an 850mb temp of -9C in mid February and it only shows mid to upper 30s and you think its comical? Reality would likely be around 40. Day 8... the 850mb temp is only -6C but there are more clouds. Reality would again probably be around 40. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 New Euro Weeklies are...... well....... you be the judgeHaha, that looks like paleo composite from the LIA. Seeing a block over Greenland looks weird..it’s been so freakin’ long. Will take some getting used to. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 This is a silly statement. Day 7 for example... sunshine and an 850mb temp of -9C in mid February and it only shows mid to upper 30s and you think its comical? Reality would likely be around 40. Day 8... the 850mb temp is only -6C but there are more clouds. Reality would again probably be around 40.Sadly without snow you are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Sadly without snow you are right. Given the upper level parameters that it shows... the ECMWF is probably a little too cold with the surface temps as usual. Even with snow on the ground... -9C with full sun in mid February is going to get you into the upper 30s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 SSW underway: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 SSW underway: That seems sudden! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Bigtime step back on the Euro. Nothing of interest at all down here. Ensembles also trending worse too? I'm struggling to find them. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 28 degrees Federal Way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 People are going to like the 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Impressive! 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 6z was a work of art... Maybe a day or two with highs near freezing, convergence zone sagging into south King county... Lovely.. 2 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 An actual cold morning! Sitting at 25 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately. Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 26 in Federal way dew point 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately. Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night? oh Tim...Very weak “warming” signal and 850’s are still below average by a decent margin. What are you whining about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 oh Tim...Very weak “warming” signal and 850’s are still below average by a decent margin. What are you whining about? Not whining. But it is a big change from previous runs. With the 06Z GFS being consistent... I wonder if it was just a bad night for the European suite. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately. Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night? Take a deep breath. You couldn't wait to post that EPS map... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 It's pretty cold out there. At 23 right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 It's pretty cold out there. At 23 right now. I really think your thermometer runs a little cold. Its 31 at SEA and 32 at UW in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Take a deep breath. You couldn't wait to post that EPS map... If that were true then it would have been posted last night. The 12Z EPS from yesterday never did come out on WB so I still can't post it but I am sure it was cold like the operational run. WB finished loading the 12Z surface maps in the middle of the afternoon... about 6 hours late. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 27 at PDX! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 27 here as well... calm and clear. There has been no east wind here with this weak ridge. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Wow. Just when you thought the 00z GFS was the pinnacle of good model runs, the 06z comes along and says, "Hold my beer". The fact that the 06Z run did not even weaken a little makes me think the GFS in on track and leading the way here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 members on the 6Z GEFS go to -15 or lower on the 850s. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately. Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night? Still a big positive anom over the northern GOA. It will be fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I really think your thermometer runs a little cold. Its 31 at SEA and 32 at UW in Seattle.He doesn't live close to either of those places, both of which tend to run warmer than places away from the water. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Currently 24 chilly Willy degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 He doesn't live close to either of those places, both of which tend to run warmer than places away from the water.He is right across the lake from UW and on a hill. You can see Husky stadium from Kirkland. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 He is right across the lake from UW and on a hill. You can see Husky stadium from Kirkland.Are you familiar with the term "microclimate"? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Are you familiar with the term "microclimate"? Most of Kirkland readings are in the 27-28 degree range though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I can see DIA from the hill near my house. But there are many times my temp is 5-10 degrees different. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12Z GFS has started! A real test to see if it holds its ground against the very pedestrian 00Z ECMWF run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.