snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 A couple of really good signs...Forks has a dp of 29 with west winds and northern Whatcom County has already fallen to the low 30s with ENE winds. No way we have to worry about rain by late tonight. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 CZ looks to be firing up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 850s still at -10 on Thursday on the ECMWF! Holy sheeit! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Tacoma south looks really good for the Tuesday/Wednesday event on the 00z ECMWF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now. The Euro has this area getting snow too. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now.This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I'm beginning to think the next 10 days could average 10 or more degrees below normal. That would be insane, but very possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Snowing!Nice. I see there's some 33° temps showing up in your area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 The Euro has this area getting snow too.Yeah, I hope the models get snowier for both of us on Tuesday as we get closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed. They'll get a handle on it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 A couple of really good signs...Forks has a dp of 29 with west winds and northern Whatcom County has already fallen to the low 30s with ENE winds. No way we have to worry about rain by late tonight.DP at Forks is now 27! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 It's a balmy 40 farenheight here. I wonder when it will start dropping? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Everything is turning to snow on the radar now. Cold air is certainly taking over faster than expected. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Just changed over to snow here after some heavy rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 The Euro has this area getting snow too.Hope that trends snowier for us on the midweek storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 The hrrr is junk outside a few hours.This is correct. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Down to 37 here. I would imagine I will start seeing snow around 2-3am. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 This event is going to hit the area so hard. Few people here in stores etc. are mentioning the weather and with the way this winter has gone a lot of folks have just already assumed "winter cancel" so I wouldn't be surprised to see some hilarious impacts from this and the NWS office is going to be embarrassed.Yeah we don't need another episode where kids are stranded on school buses until close to midnight again. Hopefully the GFS jumps on board soon enough so all the models will be on the train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 out of the 4 major models, the EURO, GEM and NAM now all have a snowstorm for PDX Tuesday night into Wednesday. Only the GFS doesn't but it's close. Based on this they need to start putting snow into the forecast Tuesday night. Exact totals to be figured out later but need to put it in there now. GFS has slowly but surely been trending towards the others on that too. Things are looking pretty good for the midweek at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Tacoma south looks really good for the Tuesday/Wednesday event on the 00z ECMWF.us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021800_87_494_215.pngLooking tremendous! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Everything is turning to snow on the radar now. Cold air is certainly taking over faster than expected.I wasn't expecting areas in Snohomish County to flip over this early. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 The GFS had tons of snow above 1000' next weekend. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 GFS has slowly but surely been trending towards the others on that too. Things are looking pretty good for the midweek at the moment.Yeah and looks like quite possibly another system drops in on Thursday. I'm not going to get much sleep this next week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Yeah and looks like quite possibly another system drops in on Thursday. I'm not going to get much sleep this next week!No true winter weather fan around here will. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 DP at Forks is now 27! The maritime air being that dry is really going to help make it cold enough for all snow later tonight and tomorrow. I can't imagine rain anywhere in the northern 3/4 of WA tomorrow...probably not even the extreme south. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Tomorrow reminds me of a poor man's version of 1/1/17. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Wow spots are starting to show up all over the radar, including an intense band just north of Neah Bay, in Snohomish County and in Vancouver BC. Amazing!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 35 with random snow flakes 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I think it's highly possible the afternoon temps will be colder than progged tomorrow given the way things are unfolding. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Radiational cooling allows the temperature to fall to it's dewpoint. Without that you're risking trapping the warmth from daytime heating at the expense of evaporative cooling that will increase the dewpoint.Well, radiative cooling is a process of inversion and stratification. If you precipitate into an inversion you’ll just mix out the inversion. The reduction in convective overturning that creates the inversion (relative to the adiabatic/hydrostatic lapse rate present) warms the atmosphere just above the inversion. So when you mix that out, I’m not sure there’s any notable effect. The boundary layer can’t be analyzed as a parcel. Plus, under CAA, you’re probably not going to radiate well from the surface at all, regardless. The atmosphere will likely be far too turbulent. As for wetbulbing/evaporative cooling, it’s relevant across the entire boundary layer containing a non-zero dewpoint depression. There’s also dynamic cooling via melting of falling snow as well, if the base of the boundary layer is above freezing. So, IMO, precipitation > no precipitation. At least at this point in time. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Tomorrow reminds me of a poor man's version of 1/1/17.Puget sound posters cannot relate. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Things seem to be unfolding right on schedule to me. After 06z all the models showed the cold air just booking it south. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 temps in bham dropped 6 degrees in 15 mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Legitimate snow now! 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Snowing in South Everett. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Wow spots are starting to show up all over the radar, including an intense band just north of Neah Bay, in Snohomish County and in Vancouver BC. Amazing!!Snowing in Shawnigan now. Still a strong SW wind too. That band heading towards Victoria could be a surprise for some. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Snowing in Shawnigan now. Still a strong SW wind too. That band heading towards Victoria could be a surprise for some.Yeah I think that the upper levels may be cold enough to support some snow. Weird because that band wasn't modelled to hit Victoria, yet it's looking pretty robust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Model struggles becoming real. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Technology still has a ways to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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