February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Once again, computers rule the day as far as the valley snow situation right now. Pretty soon human forecasters will be obsolete. 

[snow_wizard]

About the only good news for the Seattle area is it's clear tonight and it will get really cold.

[Deweydog]

Euro from last night did very well. You'd think they'd have learned that you shouldn't bet against it.

I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like we could stay in Hawaii for another month and probably still come home to multiple chances for snow.

 

Doesn't look like a particularly snow pattern to me, but to each their own:

 

[TT-SEA]

Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB.   

 

Its like having a crystal ball in most cases.    Thank God for the Europeans!  

[wxmet]

Fair enough. I just wouldn't read too much into what just happened. 

 

And I would also point out that a system moving in from the SW requires specific configurations and tracks for Seattle to score, too. Can't be too far south, can't be too far north, can't be too warm, etc.

 

Systems coming from the southwest are less prone to rain shadowing being on the windward side of the Olympics. 

[TT-SEA]

I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it.

 

 

Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB.   

 

Its like having a crystal ball in many cases.    Thank God for the Europeans!  

[snow_wizard]

Once again, computers rule the day as far as the valley snow situation right now. Pretty soon human forecasters will be obsolete. 

 

Perhaps.  They did have some pretty epic fails for Seattle during the weekend though.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is terrible on this run.

[Lisa0527]

Anyone have the Euro snowfall maps for this weekend?

[wx_statman]

Euro from last night did very well. You'd think they'd have learned that you shouldn't bet against it.

 

The NAM did pretty well also.

[Deweydog]

Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB.

 

Its like having a crystal ball in many cases. Thank God for the Europeans!

I totally lean on this place for that info.

[TT-SEA]

Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week?    About time. 

 

 

  

[jcmcgaffey]

Off topic. But since Seattle got screwed I had nothing better to do than to look around the US on my accuweather app there are areas on the east coast that are sitting in the mid 60s currently at almost 2am with snow cover. That would be weird. Alot of stations will have highs in the upper 60s and lows 70s tonight and will have lows tomorrow in the low 20s.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Flurries just ended here. Finished with 4.25".

[TT-SEA]

Flurries just ended here. Finished with 4.25".

Also impressive.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking the chances are at least 50% Seattle won't score a decent snow out of this entire cold snap.  Tonight's Euro is really bad, but it could be wrong.

[wxmet]

Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week?    About time. 

  

 

Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather.

[Perturbed Member]

I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it.

 

So will tonight's 00z Euro nail it too? Looks good for tomorrow night...

 

I know I said I wouldn't look at any more models for tomorrow but this stuff is basically crack. I can't stop.

[Dave]

The rainfall downn her is chillyy

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week?    About time. 

 

 

 

No thanks. Save that garbage for summer.

[Front Ranger]

Systems coming from the southwest are less prone to rain shadowing being on the windward side of the Olympics.

I get that. But any slider that is strong enough or takes the right track can deliver snow.

 

Today's system would have produced a Seattle snowstorm if it was either 1) 100 mi closer to the coast or 2) looped inland to the south of Seattle instead of staying offshore. Either scenario can happen with lows approaching from the NW.

 

It was not the Olympics that prevented meaningful snow in Seattle today.

[TT-SEA]

Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather.

 

I agree.   The ECMWF is very nice for next week.    Looks like a decent pattern for early March... 50s and sunshine during the second part of the week.   

[snow_wizard]

Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather.

 

I want a dry / northerly flow dominated spring.  I hate the dreary miserable springs we have normally been getting lately.

[snow_wizard]

No thanks. Save that garbage for summer.

 

It doesn't agree with the 12z EPS at all so it's probably wrong.

[TT-SEA]

No thanks. Save that garbage for summer.

 

Very confusing post.   That is an 850mb temp anomaly map which is in relation to the normal 850mb temp at this time of year.  

 

You said you don't like hot weather, but now you want only warm 850mb temp anomalies in the summer?  

[Perturbed Member]

The rainfall downn her is chillyy

 

I should have ran to the liquor store like you, that way I would have been better prepared 

[snow_wizard]

I get that. But any slider that is strong enough or takes the right track can deliver snow.

 

Today's system would have produced a Seattle snowstorm if it was either 1) 100 mi closer to the coast or 2) looped inland to the south of Seattle instead of staying offshore. Either scenario can happen with lows approaching from the NW.

 

It was not the Olympics that prevented meaningful snow in Seattle today.

 

Yup.  There is simply no mechanism to turn the systems inland over southern WA.  Snow would be a virtual lock if that could happen.  Terribly frustrating to have a 150 block and not get anything out of it.  In all seriousness NW OR is due to be snubbed for about 5 years while Seattle gets nailed regularly.

[TT-SEA]

It doesn't agree with the 12z EPS at all so it's probably wrong.

 

The EPS will not depict a ULL pattern very well in the blended mean in the 7-15 day period.    Don't look for much help there.   

 

The ECMWF might be wrong but it does make sense that this pattern could evolve in that direction.   

[Jesse]

Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather.

No thanks. Folks up north haven’t even gotten their shot at snow yet.

 

Luckily this is a La Niña year so it will probably be a chilly spring.

[snow_wizard]

So will tonight's 00z Euro nail it too? Looks good for tomorrow night...

 

I know I said I wouldn't look at any more models for tomorrow but this stuff is basically crack. I can't stop.

 

Looks like it shows 2" for Portland tomorrow night.

[snow_wizard]

No thanks. Folks up north haven’t even gotten their shot at snow yet.

 

Luckily this is a La Niña year so it will probably be a chilly spring.

 

You can almost bet on it now that we have had this big flip.  Probably lots of GOA ridging.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

When I miss out on snow like this I just need to remind myself that there are things in this world that are way more important than snow.

 

[wx_statman]

49/27 today in Eureka, CA. Impressively cold day for any time of year. The minimum tied the coldest they have ever been this late in the winter, 27 degrees on Feb. 27th in both 1890 & 1962. 

[Jesse]

See...the people in Oregon couldn't give a s**t about us up here. Not saying it wouldn't be the same if the situation were reversed. Simply the ugly side of human nature.

What exactly should we be doing? Trust me I would love to see you guys score. I don’t see why that means we can’t enjoy it when we get snow. It’s pretty rare down here too....

[TT-SEA]

You can almost bet on it now that we have had this big flip.  Probably lots of GOA ridging.

 

So is that a spring that you and I would like?   Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee Covington and never look back.  

[Front Ranger]

So is that a spring that you and I would like? Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee and never look back.

From what I remember, the 2014-16 springs had a lot of warm/dry weather.

[Jesse]

So is that a spring that you and I would like? Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee Covington and never look back.

Jim and I like the same kind of spring weather.

[TT-SEA]

From what I remember, the 2014-16 springs had a lot of warm/dry weather.

 

They did. 

 

But Jesse is right that a very gloomy and wet spring could be in the cards this year... which is also fairly typical for the PNW.

[snow_wizard]

Latest GFS ensemble shows 850s bottoming at around -11.5 for SEA Thursday morning.  Incredible sustained 850s below -9 from Sunday through Friday morning with this event.