February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the nam us correct it shows snow fallinf for about 12 hrs from portland to Seattle.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That low off the coast is in a good position to help the west valley with the cold air dam.  Might see decent totals in places like Forest Grove, McMinnville, Grand Ronde, and Dallas and if easterly flow can prevail it will help keep that warm nose at bay.

[Perturbed Member]

What about Olympia, Chehalis, Longview?

 

The claim that Portland as a stand alone location has done so amazingly well recently compared to all Puget Sound locations is a myth, and mostly bourne from the fact that many posters up there see everything from Olympia to Eugene as Portland. The whole southern half of this forum gets lumped together, kind of like you are doing in this post.

 

You cited December 2013 and December 2016 as great events down here, for instance, when my area didn't really get more than a dusting with either.

 

I too share this opinion that a lot of folks here perceive SW WA through most of the Willamette valley to be "Portland".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM looks like rain for places below 500' in the Willamette Valley.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I too share this opinion that a lot of folks here perceive SW WA through most of the Willamette valley to be "Portland".

 

 

Well we do share a watershed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice snow hole over the valley...

 

[Jesse]

Well we do share a watershed.

 

In that case I will consider Portland part of the greater Spokane region from this point forward.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Significant banding.  Looking like a regional event folks.

[Front Ranger]

Olympia to Tacoma are the big winners on this run, though all of SW WA does well. 4-6" for some spots.

 

[Perturbed Member]

That band sets up much further north than previous runs. Lighter precip to the south and rain/snow mix for a part of tomorrow. 

 

I'm surprised to see any rain at all over PDX tomorrow with the cold air in place and that main low going off to the south...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That band sets up much further north than previous runs. Lighter precip to the south and rain/snow mix for a part of tomorrow. 

 

I'm surprised to see any rain at all over PDX tomorrow with the cold air in place and that main low going off to the south...

 

This run is actually better for the valley. Most places see at least a solid band moving through as snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fills in as the low pulls south though...I guess this really is a best case scenario...

 

[Front Ranger]

I too share this opinion that a lot of folks here perceive SW WA through most of the Willamette valley to be "Portland".

 

That's missing the point, though.

 

No matter where you want to draw the lines geographically, the Portland area AND other southern areas have done better overall since 2012. Better than the Seattle area, better than the Puget Sound region (which I would consider OLM to BLI, a pretty d**n big area).

[BLI snowman]

What about Olympia, Chehalis, Longview?

 

The claim that Portland as a stand alone location has done so amazingly well recently compared to all Puget Sound locations is a myth, and mostly bourne from the fact that many posters up there see everything from Olympia to Eugene as Portland. The whole southern half of this forum gets lumped together, kind of like you are doing in this post.

 

You cited December 2013 and December 2016 as great events down here, for instance, when my area didn't really get more than a dusting with either.

 

The SW WA interior has generally done the best this decade, at least with regards to getting screwed the least. Lewis County also had one of its greatest storms on record in January 2012.

 

In general though the Vancouver to Olympia corridor has always been better than Seattle for snowfall, so it's not that unusual to see us consistently outperforming them.

[wx_statman]

Coldest sounding since Nov 2010 up at UIL this morning. 850's at -12.5c, edging out -12.3c in Feb 2014. 

 

Nice trough!

[Perturbed Member]

This run is actually better for the valley. Most places see at least a solid band moving through as snow.

 

 

I like the track of the low better, I'm just skeptical that we switch over to rain at all as the NAM shows. Cold air in place, relatively low dps, no annoying SW winds, etc. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has the potential to be a big event for almost everyone. The difference between the 12 and 18z is dramatic so either the nam is just crap or the models can finally see what is up. 18 gfs will be very interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z NAM is actually significantly better for PDX and all of the Willamette Valley than the 12z...

[Front Ranger]

The SW WA interior has generally done the best this decade, at least with regards to getting screwed the least. Lewis County also had one of its greatest storms on record in January 2012.

 

In general though the Vancouver to Olympia corridor has always been better than Seattle for snowfall, so it's not that unusual to see us consistently outperforming them.

 

Obviously. Talking relative to average here.

 

If you really want to simplify it to simply Seattle vs. Portland, compare the cold/snow seen at official Seattle NWS stations vs Portland NWS stations since 2012. Objectively, Portland has done better than Seattle - no way around it.

[Perturbed Member]

This has the potential to be a big event for almost everyone. The difference between the 12 and 18z is dramatic so either the nam is just crap or the models can finally see what is up. 18 gfs will be very interesting.

 

 

It is very interesting that such a dramatic change happened from run to run when we are so close to this event. 18z NAM literally shows snow starting here at 6 AM tomorrow. 

[BLI snowman]

NAM looks like rain for places below 500' in the Willamette Valley.

 

Probably a rain to snow transition for sure south of Portland. They'll do fine still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its a slow moving slider that stalls the precip for some time. These can be very good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given the track and almost non-existent warm air advection I don't see PDX getting rain with the NAM solution, as it shows for a period before it turns back to snow. However, I could see several hours of light non-sticking snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[Front Ranger]

Probably a rain to snow transition for sure south of Portland. They'll do fine still.

 

Yup. As long as the low remains offshore.

[Perturbed Member]

Its a slow moving slider that stalls the precip for some time. These can be very good.

 

Seems PDX NWS might be right about this baroclinic band. They claim these setups often produce more precip than modeled and models struggle to pin down where they setup.

[Arctic Front]

[Perturbed Member]

Given the track and almost non-existent warm air advection I don't see PDX getting rain with the NAM solution, as it shows for a period before it turns back to snow. However, I could see several hours of light non-sticking snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

The 3km NAM shows no rain at all so far unlike the regular NAM. I don't see a rain to snow thing happening tomorrow. 

 

[BLI snowman]

That's missing the point, though.

 

No matter where you want to draw the lines geographically, the Portland area AND other southern areas have done better overall since 2012. Better than the Seattle area, better than the Puget Sound region (which I would consider OLM to BLI, a pretty d**n big area).

 

OLM is a lot closer to Portland than it is to BLI.

[Jbolin]

OLM is a lot closer to Portland than it is to BLI.

114 miles vs. 155 miles

[BLI snowman]

Obviously. Talking relative to average here.

 

If you really want to simplify it to simply Seattle vs. Portland, compare the cold/snow seen at official Seattle NWS stations vs Portland NWS stations since 2012. Objectively, Portland has done better than Seattle - no way around it.

 

I agree, but it's not as big of a disparity as some are saying. 

 

Seattle has struggled at seeing big events lately. Not a lot of 5"+ accumulations right in the center of the metro. Once upon a time not too far back they were pretty frequent (Two in Nov. 1985, Feb. 1989, Mar. 1989, Feb. 1990, Dec. 1990, Nov. 1996, two in Dec. 1996). Also not many snowfalls leading into cold airmasses, that's one area where the Central Sound usually does a bit better than us down here. Just not recently.

[Winterdog]

The cloud shield ahead of Portland's next snowstorm is timed perfectly to trap our afternoon warmth and insulate us from getting too cold tonight.  How nice.

[Front Ranger]

OLM is a lot closer to Portland than it is to BLI.

 

And yet, the winters where OLM does really well are more closely tied to winters where SEA does well. Just as winters where the Willamette Valley does well overall also tend to be winters where PDX does well.

 

2016-17 and 2013-14 were both very good winters for Portland, and for the Willamette Valley. OLM? Not so much. Seattle? Not so much.

 

Again, you're sidestepping the point here. Yes, OLM to BLI is a big region. So is Kelso to EUG. One is further north, the other is further south. That's the point. Some winters tend to favor either northern areas or southern areas. The south has had the edge since 2012.

[ShawniganLake]

[BLI snowman]

Given the track and almost non-existent warm air advection I don't see PDX getting rain with the NAM solution, as it shows for a period before it turns back to snow. However, I could see several hours of light non-sticking snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

Mid day time heating combined with lighter precip is about the only mechanism where we may see a rain/snow mix with that setup. Otherwise it should stay snow with the offshore flow. Definitely a chance for a

 

I mentioned it before but February 1917 is looking like a great analog for this pattern. Eugene actually did the best of everybody with that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 3km NAM shows no rain at all so far unlike the regular NAM. I don't see a rain to snow thing happening tomorrow.

 

Yeah, I'm not seeing any rain at all for PDX Metro. In situations like this, the highest resolution models will be more accurate and it's good to see what it shows we all think is likelier to happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM has the Thursday morning system too, but is very weak with it.

 

[Front Ranger]

I agree, but it's not as big of a disparity as some are saying. 

 

Seattle has struggled at seeing big events lately. Not a lot of 5"+ accumulations right in the center of the metro. Once upon a time not too far back they were pretty frequent (Two in Nov. 1985, Feb. 1989, Mar. 1989, Feb. 1990, Dec. 1990, Nov. 1996, two in Dec. 1996). Also not many snowfalls leading into cold airmasses, that's one area where the Central Sound usually does a bit better than us down here. Just not recently.

 

Yep, but they did fine in Feb 2011, Nov 2010, Dec 2008, Jan 2007, and Nov 2006. 

 

Ebbs and flows.

[FroYoBro]

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Beautiful. This week could be a lot of fun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

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Wow. NAM shows 5-7" here.

 

It did fairly well yesterday, though I got a little more than it was predicting.

[Randyc321]

Its a slow moving slider that stalls the precip for some time. These can be very good.

 

What time does it show it starting up at?