February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

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[TigerWoodsLibido]

I don't see how the west central valley switches to rain given the low track still giving an offshore component.  Maybe daytime heating?

[BLI snowman]

And yet, the winters where OLM does really well are more closely tied to winters where SEA does well. Just as winters where the Willamette Valley does well overall also tend to be winters where PDX does well.

 

2016-17 and 2013-14 were both very good winters for Portland, and for the Willamette Valley. OLM? Not so much. Seattle? Not so much.

 

Again, you're sidestepping the point here. Yes, OLM to BLI is a big region. So is Kelso to EUG. One is further north, the other is further south. That's the point. Some winters tend to favor either northern areas or southern areas. The south has had the edge since 2012.

 

Yes, but not BLI    OLM is often a different world compared to BLI, and that area fits in reasonably well with the rest of the SW WA interior albeit they're relatively dependent on Fraser River outflow as opposed to Kelso or Vancouver.

 

OLM also didn't perform too poorly in 2016-17. They did well in December and February.

[Jesse]

Yes, but not BLI OLM is often a different world compared to BLI, and that area fits in reasonably well with the rest of the SW WA interior albeit they're relatively dependent on Fraser River outflow as opposed to Kelso or Vancouver.

 

OLM also didn't perform too poorly in 2016-17. They did well in December and February.

Thanks for picking up the baton here. Flatironing can be exhausting and time consuming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see how the west central valley switches to rain given the low track still giving an offshore component. Maybe daytime heating?

Yes and lighter precip until the band slides south later in the overnight hours.

[Deweydog]

PDX hanging in there at 38!

[BLI snowman]

Thanks for picking up the baton here. Flatironing can be exhausting and time consuming.

 

It's definitely kind of silly to just lump little sub-regions together, since just like every snowflake, every "My Location" is unique and special.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, but not BLI    OLM is often a different world compared to BLI, and that area fits in reasonably well with the rest of the SW WA interior albeit they're relatively dependent on Fraser River outflow as opposed to Kelso or Vancouver.

 

OLM also didn't perform too poorly in 2016-17. They did well in December and February.

 

The point was northern region vs. southern region. There are general trends that tend to match up well when you look Seattle vs. Portland, northern areas vs. southern areas.

 

And OLM did not do that well in 2016-17 relative to their long term average, which of course is easily higher than PDX or SEA.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks for picking up the baton here. Flatironing can be exhausting and time consuming.

 

Facts are definitely more exhausting than fallacies.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41 with the occasional breeze from the north.

[Jesse]

Facts are definitely more exhausting than fallacies.

BLI is much closer to SEA than EUG is to PDX, yet you leave Bellingham out of your Puget Sound deductions while lumping PDX and EUG together to prove the “Portland area’s” supposed recent winter domination.

 

Fallacy, and that’s a fact.

[Phil]

I’m ready! Bring it! I had to order paw boots for my dogs this morning and pay the price to get them by tomorrow...soft fluffy snow of yesterday is now chunky hard snow, my dogs now have bloody toes from running in it and since it’s not going anywhere for a while I figured I better get them protected! The good news is that the ball now stays on top of the snow!

Love that picture, man.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pdx probably tops out at 40. Not a disaster by any means

[Jesse]

PDX hanging in there at 38!

Nailbiter day!!

 

They will probably hit 40. Too bad yesterday had the midnight high because they scored a legit afternoon 39 then.

[FroYoBro]

Nailbiter day!!

 

They will probably hit 40. Too bad yesterday had the midnight high because they scored a legit afternoon 39 then.

 

They should get a sub 40 high tomorrow. 

[BLI snowman]

The point was northern region vs. southern region. There are general trends that tend to match up well when you look Seattle vs. Portland, northern areas vs. southern areas.

 

And OLM did not do that well in 2016-17 relative to their long term average, which of course is easily higher than PDX or SEA.

 

That's mostly all reliant upon big generalizations, though. I'd say just keep the focus limited to one spot versus another since it's more quantifiable.

 

OLM probably finished with about 15" last winter. Right about at their long term average, and well above what their 30 year average would be. Not a "great" winter but hardly a shitshow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BLI is much closer to SEA than EUG is to PDX, yet you leave Bellingham out of your Puget Sound deductions while lumping PDX and EUG together to prove the “Portland area’s” supposed recent winter domination.

 

Fallacy, and that’s a fact.

Plus everyone remembers the times their area gets screwed. Like ppl in Eugene bitching about January 10,17 or December 2008. While not taking into account January 08, dec 2013, March 2012 etc....

[Deweydog]

Nailbiter day!!

 

They will probably hit 40. Too bad yesterday had the midnight high because they scored a legit afternoon 39 then.

40 was always a 50/50 deal for today in my opinion even with a clearer/colder start.

[Farmboy]

 

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Your posts crack me up...

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON is pretty lame. Wimpy baroclinic band and nothing at all from the main precip shield of the low. 

 

The 18z NAM is pretty much a best case scenario with the low coming close enough to the coast to give NW OR precip from the main shield and then setting up the baroclinic band way up north and then have it gradually slide south. Snow to way more places. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gotta think NWS PDX is going to have to start issuing advisories, esp if precip is supposed to arrive in the morning.

[Jesse]

40 was always a 50/50 deal for today in my opinion even with a clearer/colder start.

Yeah same. Although I got carried away by the excitement of the models trending a little colder in the home stretch and went for 37 today.

[Front Ranger]

SEA long term average snowfall: 10.4"

PDX long term average snowfall: 6.0"

 

PDX average snowfall 2013-17: 4.3" (72% of long term average)

SEA average snowfall 2013-17: 4.0" (38% of long term average)

 

PDX long term sub-freezing high average: 3.1

SEA long term sub-freezing high average: 2.7

 

PDX average sub-freezing highs 2013-17: 3.8

SEA average sub-freezing highs 2013-17: .8

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The icon shifted precip north as well.

[Jesse]

Plus everyone remembers the times their area gets screwed. Like ppl in Eugene bitching about January 10,17 or December 2008. While not taking into account January 08, dec 2013, March 2012 etc....

This is true Andrew my friend.

[Front Ranger]

BLI is much closer to SEA than EUG is to PDX, yet you leave Bellingham out of your Puget Sound deductions while lumping PDX and EUG together to prove the “Portland area’s” supposed recent winter domination.

 

Fallacy, and that’s a fact.

 

Again, northern regions vs southern regions. PDX is at the far north end of the Willamette Valley. BLI is at the far north end of the Puget Sound region.

 

I never lumped PDX and EUG into the "Portland area". That is a fallacy to say I did.

[Deweydog]

Yeah same. Although I got carried away by the excitement of the models trending a little colder in the home stretch and went for 37 today.

Tomorrow should have a better shot!

 

#highcloudshocker!

[Jesse]

SEA long term average snowfall: 10.4"

PDX long term average snowfall: 6.0"

 

PDX average snowfall 2013-17: 4.3" (72% of long term average)

SEA average snowfall 2013-17: 4.0" (38% of long term average)

 

PDX long term sub-freezing high average: 3.1

SEA long term sub-freezing high average: 2.7

 

PDX average sub-freezing highs 2013-17: 3.8

SEA average sub-freezing highs 2013-17: .8

Looks way closer than people are making it out to be, which was the point all along.

 

And we all know that SEA’s third runway is entirely to blame for their recent high temp fails. Totally unrepresentative of the area as you have argued many times.

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

That's mostly all reliant upon big generalizations, though. I'd say just keep the focus limited to one spot versus another since it's more quantifiable.

 

I just did that with SEA vs. PDX.

[BLI snowman]

18z ICON is pretty lame. Wimpy baroclinic band and nothing at all from the main precip shield of the low. 

 

The 18z NAM is pretty much a best case scenario with the low coming close enough to the coast to give NW OR precip from the main shield and then setting up the baroclinic band way up north and then have it gradually slide south. Snow to way more places. 

 

 

 

Don't know that I'd call a widespread 2-3" "lame". Just not the full blown 12 hour orgasm that the NAM shows.

[Deweydog]

[Front Ranger]

Looks way closer than people are making it out to be, which was the point all along.

 

And we all know that SEA’s third runway is entirely to blame for their recent high temp fails. Totally unrepresentative of the area as you have argued many times.

 

So 72% is close to 38%? 3.8 average highs below freezing is close to .8?

 

Either way, the facts support the position that the Portland area has done better than the Seattle area. That was the point all along.

 

I've actually made the argument several times that SEA's issues with high temps are much more a warm season thing. That's what the evidence indicates.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ten degrees at my cabin. Crazy cold for this time of year. -2 last night 26 inches of snow.

[BLI snowman]

I just did that with SEA vs. PDX.

 

Yes, you just did that I after I mentioned that you should.

 

Way to go!

[Jesse]

So 72% is close to 38%? 3.8 average highs below freezing is close to .8?

 

I've actually made the argument several times that SEA's issues with high temps are much more a warm season thing. That's what the evidence indicates.

Raw totals are very close. Which is what most people care/b*tch about. I doubt everyone is making the percent average calculation in their head when they become enraged at a picture of a snowy yard in Eugene (south Portland).

[Front Ranger]

Yes, you just did that I after I mentioned that you should.

 

Way to go!

 

You think I'm that fast? 

 

I started that post before I ever saw yours. And what did it show? Exactly what I've been saying.

[Front Ranger]

Raw totals are very close. Which is what most people care/b*tch about. I doubt everyone is making the percent average calculation in their head when they become enraged at a picture of a snowy yard in Eugene (south Portland).

 

Ok, so let's just ignore the fact that SEA has averaged nearly twice the snowfall PDX has historically. 

 

Micro-climates are SO overrated.

[wxmet]

Really nice 18z NAM run and it's within the "good" range of the NAM. It did well with the system on Sunday, so it will be interesting to see whether or not it can do it again. Flow coming up from the south and southwest would allow precip to get into the Pugent Sound, isentropically. 

[BLI snowman]

You think I'm that fast? 

 

I started that post before I ever saw yours. And what did it show? Exactly what I've been saying.

 

I also acknowledged the difference earlier. I'm aware of the stats. Portland has outperformed Seattle. Not a huge disparity overall, but it's there.