February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Many times these weak lows with little wind that are a ways of the coast creep moisture further north. It is very close to Seattle. Even an inch from Olympia north would be cool.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gonna be real close if those maps are to be believed.  Might get warm nosed if that band is a bit too far north.  Hope it slides south through the day.

Thursday looks better for you down there in Monmouth.

[Perturbed Member]

Here comes the PDX NWS

 

 

The dry and cold conditions will prime the environment for another
potential low-elevation snow event later Tuesday as a low drops north
to south just offshore the Washington and Oregon coast. The 06z and
12z models are trending towards a moister forecast, and have
increased pops and qpf for Tuesday afternoon and night with the
morning update. This means there is a higher probability for low
elevation snow and the potential for higher snow accumulations.

The models are fairly consistent in showing a baroclinic band set up
across NW Oregon late Tuesday afternoon, but vary on where it will
set up. The Nam and the ECMWF forecasts the band will set up along
the WA/OR border near the Portland metro area, where as the GFS has
it over the Central Willamette Valley (near Salem). Models have
historically struggled with forecasting the location and speed of
progression of these type of weather systems through our area, and
usually forecast too little QPF and move it too quickly. Therefore
the forecast confidence on the location and amount of the snow will
be low, although the odds for low-elevation snow (with decent
amounts) are high. ~TJ

[TT-SEA]

Our neighbors are having a new roof put on right now. They just started the job this morning around 8am when it was 24*F and the roof they were peeling off had about half inch of crusted snow on it. NOT FUN!

 

I watched our contractors putting on the rolls of black underlining on the roof on Saturday in that insane wind via that camera.    It was crazy... no idea why they did not wait.   The would get one section down and then it would start blowing off and tearing when they were on the next section.  

[Front Ranger]

Seattle got no snow but it was cloudy all night... and now its already up to 31 at SEA and sunny.    Which option is that one?   

 

SEA did manage a low of 28, though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here comes the PDX NWS

 

 

The dry and cold conditions will prime the environment for another

potential low-elevation snow event later Tuesday as a low drops north

to south just offshore the Washington and Oregon coast. The 06z and

12z models are trending towards a moister forecast, and have

increased pops and qpf for Tuesday afternoon and night with the

morning update. This means there is a higher probability for low

elevation snow and the potential for higher snow accumulations.

The models are fairly consistent in showing a baroclinic band set up

across NW Oregon late Tuesday afternoon, but vary on where it will

set up. The Nam and the ECMWF forecasts the band will set up along

the WA/OR border near the Portland metro area, where as the GFS has

it over the Central Willamette Valley (near Salem). Models have

historically struggled with forecasting the location and speed of

progression of these type of weather systems through our area, and

usually forecast too little QPF and move it too quickly. Therefore

the forecast confidence on the location and amount of the snow will

be low, although the odds for low-elevation snow (with decent

amounts) are high. ~TJ

Sounds encouraging at the moment!

[TT-SEA]

Here is a live view from our front door camera.   Our basketball hoop blew down on Saturday.    Snow is melting off the driveway and walkway now.   

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Any bets on precip making it as far north as Seattle? I say 80% chance.

[Perturbed Member]

Sounds encouraging at the moment!

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see a WWA or something from them by this afternoon.

[Brennan]

Here is a live view from our front door camera.   Our basketball hoop blew down on Saturday.    Snow is melting off the driveway and walkway now.   

 

 

With an estate like you've got, you need a paved court with a real hoop and glass backboard. 

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks much warmer than the gfs early next week

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, another low slides south along the coast Wed-Thursday for another 2-3 inches in PDX metro. This had been shown by GEM and ICON on and off, looks like the Euro has come around to this too. 

 

Sliders are awesome.

 

Here comes the PDX NWS

 

 

The dry and cold conditions will prime the environment for another

potential low-elevation snow event later Tuesday as a low drops north

to south just offshore the Washington and Oregon coast. The 06z and

12z models are trending towards a moister forecast, and have

increased pops and qpf for Tuesday afternoon and night with the

morning update. This means there is a higher probability for low

elevation snow and the potential for higher snow accumulations.

 

The models are fairly consistent in showing a baroclinic band set up

across NW Oregon late Tuesday afternoon, but vary on where it will

set up. The Nam and the ECMWF forecasts the band will set up along

the WA/OR border near the Portland metro area, where as the GFS has

it over the Central Willamette Valley (near Salem). Models have

historically struggled with forecasting the location and speed of

progression of these type of weather systems through our area, and

usually forecast too little QPF and move it too quickly. Therefore

the forecast confidence on the location and amount of the snow will

be low, although the odds for low-elevation snow (with decent

amounts) are high. ~TJ

 

Would be nice to see them stay conservative for once. Hard not to call for at least 1-2" though.

[Brennan]

Euro looks much warmer than the gfs early next week

 

GFS called shotgun though... Euro sittin in the back, b i t c h. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like PDX officially got .2" last night.

[Front Ranger]

Here is a live view from our front door camera.   Our basketball hoop blew down on Saturday.    Snow is melting off the driveway and walkway now.   

 

 

It's currently 14 degrees here, cloudy, and snowing lightly...but the snow isn't sticking to blacktop. That's the power of February sun angle.

[Perturbed Member]

Sliders are awesome.

 

 

Would be nice to see them stay conservative for once. Hard not to call for at least 1-2" though.

 

 

Last night's AFD was weirdly conservative saying probably just a mix at the valley floor but yeah it is honestly looking like a pretty good setup and we are under 24 hours from the start of it.

[Arctic Front]

Euro snowfall map anyone?

[TT-SEA]

Euro snowfall map anyone?

 

For what period?

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over next 10 days... not sure when this happens though.

 

[Jesse]

PDX up to 36. Basically no way they stay below 40 today, even with 850s of -10C.

[MossMan]

397A4049-A4D7-4411-A1C0-A3D0F67DDAF5.png

Lookin fantastic!!

[MossMan]

Love days like this...currently 27 and full blazing sun on the snow cover yet no melting...just the sound of ice chunks falling from the trees!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still only 31 here with a stiff north wind. This area does well with outflow as far as staying cold during the day.

[ShawniganLake]

Lookin fantastic!!

[Jbolin]

A8D27E73-DDE2-46DD-B4D7-04454414A6DD.png

That hole in the central sound needs to ******* DIE!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the cmc gem. The trend has been to move the precip north. I bet 18z runs all show pricip field further north.

[TT-SEA]

That hole in the central sound needs to f***** DIE!

 

 

There is a SEA and PDX hole on that map.  

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Worst case scenario for TigerWoodsL

 

PDX up to 36. Basically no way they stay below 40 today, even with 850s of -10C.

 

Probably 40-42 for most of the valley. Maybe a few upper 30s and mid-40s...I expected most places would get to around 40 under full sun, so no real big shock. And has little effect on potential lows tonight and zero effect on our snow chances tomorrow.

[Esquimalt]

The 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks by the NOAA are looking most likely below normal temps and above normal precipitation.  Good news! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

There is a SEA and PDX hole on that map.  

 

And now a warm nose for the central and south valley...aaargghhhh

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sitting here thinking about Jim. I hope his dream comes true and he moves to a better climate. I know how he feels and it is no fun.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Moss man is cut off for the season!! Done son!!

[Jbolin]

There is a SEA and PDX hole on that map.  

Yes but PDX has scored more often that KSEA especially over the last year

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And now a warm nose for the central and south valley...aaargghhhh

 

More like a tiny warm nose right over Corvallis/Monmouth. lol

[wxmet]

That hole in the central sound needs to f***** DIE!

 

Get rid of the Olympics 

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 31 here. Surprised to see places in the Fraser Valley never even went below the mid 20’s last night. Pretty underwhelming.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can remember watching many of these sliders coming down the coast when doppler was invented. And i remember watching the moisture creep north to around Seattle more times than not.

[HighlandExperience]

Sitting here thinking about Jim. I hope his dream comes true and he moves to a better climate. I know how he feels and it is no fun.

I have a better wish. A good storm for us