February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

While I'm thankful for the chances we have coming up, I'm not liking how most of these systems are coming in from the NW. While that trajectory is good for some areas, and those people rightfully have a reason to be excited, King County generally gets shafted in these situations.

 

Most models, including the fairly-snowy 12z GFS, show a large discrepancy between Central Sound totals and those to the north and south. Really don't feel like going through another yesterday multiple times this week/next weekend.

 

Honestly, the best shot for King County will be a prayer that tomorrow night's system has the precip shield going further north and we can squeeze and inch or two out of it. Otherwise, it's looking like a lot of "pull your hair out because it's so close" forecasting for the Central Sound.

Exactly we really need the systems midweek to over perform in Oregon so that we can get some snow up here.

 

I’m confident in this weekend at all. I can see another sad situation occurring.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here are what the 12z UKMET, ICON and NAM have to say. Just insane agreement all across the board. Now time for the 12z King EURO to deliver it's coldest and snowiest run to date for the rest of the week, bring it! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

[Perturbed Member]

12z UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.7.gif?t=1519059680

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.8.gif?t=1519059680

 

 

Gives just under .40 in qpf with surface temps at PDX at or below freezing. Sounds fun.

[HighlandExperience]

Ukmet looks better for precip field going north. Hawks12 what you think?

[Perturbed Member]

Ukmet looks better for precip field going north. Hawks12 what you think?

 

UKMET and Euro seem to push the precip field quite a bit further north. Maybe up to around SEATAC or so. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.7.gif?t=1519059680

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.8.gif?t=1519059680

 

 

Gives just under .40 in qpf with surface temps at PDX at or below freezing. Sounds fun.

Hopefully the EURO looks like the UKMET. Would give a nice snowstorm for PDX Metro!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

While I'm thankful for the chances we have coming up, I'm not liking how most of these systems are coming in from the NW. While that trajectory is good for some areas, and those people rightfully have a reason to be excited, King County generally gets shafted in these situations.

 

Most models, including the fairly-snowy 12z GFS, show a large discrepancy between Central Sound totals and those to the north and south. Really don't feel like going through another yesterday multiple times this week/next weekend.

 

Honestly, the best shot for King County will be a prayer that tomorrow night's system has the precip shield going further north and we can squeeze and inch or two out of it. Otherwise, it's looking like a lot of "pull your hair out because it's so close" forecasting for the Central Sound.

This. And you should try it living in Poulsbo.

[Jbolin]

While I'm thankful for the chances we have coming up, I'm not liking how most of these systems are coming in from the NW. While that trajectory is good for some areas, and those people rightfully have a reason to be excited, King County generally gets shafted in these situations.

 

Most models, including the fairly-snowy 12z GFS, show a large discrepancy between Central Sound totals and those to the north and south. Really don't feel like going through another yesterday multiple times this week/next weekend.

 

Honestly, the best shot for King County will be a prayer that tomorrow night's system has the precip shield going further north and we can squeeze and inch or two out of it. Otherwise, it's looking like a lot of "pull your hair out because it's so close" forecasting for the Central Sound.

Remember last year when a very similar setup occurred and parts of PDX approach a foot of snow and that precip shield barely made it north to KOLM?

[MossMan]

Remember last year when a very similar setup occurred and parts of PDX approach a foot of snow and that precip shield barely made it north to KOLM?

I always try and think positive and remember when the precip shield moved much further north than modeled which occurred in February 2011 if I remember correctly. Seattle was the cutoff line but it ended up moving much further north than that so you just never know. I’m too far north it’s looking like, however you might just get a surprise!

[Winterdog]

The clouds cleared out and the wind died a bit here allowing a low of 20F this morning.  Still have 3" of snow but it's going to be leaving soon.  

[The Swamp]

The trends to have the system further east and the precip shield further north are encouraging. Generally, precip shields are notorious for spreading further north than what is modeled.

 

That being said, this is a fairly weak low by all accounts so I'm not sure it will have enough oompf to get fair amount of snow up here to count. Not optimistic but not calling it DOA either.

 

Right now I have zero snow on the ground after 8-9 hours of it falling out of the sky yesterday.

 

Anything on Tuesday Night/Wednesday will be a appreciated.

 

I have heard others always say the moisture comes in further north than the models say.  Guess we'll find out soon.

[MossMan]

The clouds cleared out and the wind died a bit here allowing a low of 20F this morning. Still have 3" of snow but it's going to be leaving soon.

I measured 7” left of crunchy hard snow. With low DP’s I don’t see a lot melting away this week. I also had a low of 20, hoping for teens tonight but Jesse alluded to some possible clouds rolling in tonight unfortunately.

[Geos]

While I'm thankful for the chances we have coming up, I'm not liking how most of these systems are coming in from the NW. While that trajectory is good for some areas, and those people rightfully have a reason to be excited, King County generally gets shafted in these situations.

 

Most models, including the fairly-snowy 12z GFS, show a large discrepancy between Central Sound totals and those to the north and south. Really don't feel like going through another yesterday multiple times this week/next weekend.

 

Honestly, the best shot for King County will be a prayer that tomorrow night's system has the precip shield going further north and we can squeeze and inch or two out of it. Otherwise, it's looking like a lot of "pull your hair out because it's so close" forecasting for the Central Sound.

 

I hear you there. 

I'm hoping tomorrow nights system spreads the wealth further north too. 

 

Low of 26 this morning. Dew point of 14 right now. Would have been nice to have snow cover this morning and have the chance and having the coldest morning low this season so far. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My focus is on hr 66 of 12z. Weak low closer to wa coast. It is there on all models. Looks amazing on icon for the sound. Same track on gfs but weaker. Nam also has light snow for sound at same time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Also, i have lived here all my life and have pd attention to the weather for 35 years now and seattle can score with lows coming down the coast from the north. Seen it many times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-8.1C 850 mb temps over SLE this morning...I would expect this afternoon to be cooler.

[MossMan]

Also, i have lived here all my life and have pd attention to the weather for 35 years now and seattle can score with lows coming down the coast from the north. Seen it many times.

That’s what I was thinking as well. Didn’t Jan. 1996 have that trajectory? Seattle did well!

[Jbolin]

That’s what I was thinking as well. Didn’t Jan. 1996 have that trajectory? Seattle did well!

I think you're right 

 

Dec '96 was pretty ******* epic 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO running now. The low is in the exact same spot 24 hours from now as on the GFS...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-8.1C 850 mb temps over SLE this morning...I would expect this afternoon to be cooler.

 

-16C at Spokane this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely awesome thunderstorms over night... most intense lightning I can remember seeing in a long time.

 

And then this morning dawns sunny and 75 degrees.   

 

[Perturbed Member]

Widespread 1-3 inches from OLM to SLE on the 12z ECMWF

[FroYoBro]

Any snow maps for the King?

[Farmboy]

Widespread 1-3 inches from OLM to SLE on the 12z ECMWF

 

Awful track...

[ShawniganLake]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully can get more than an inch but I'll still enjoy any accumulating snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Widespread 1-3 inches from OLM to SLE on the 12z ECMWF

Yeah looks like light snow arrives just before noon before the heavier stuff after sunset. Everything looking great!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through Thursday afternoon....

 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, another low slides south along the coast Wed-Thursday for another 2-3 inches in PDX metro. This had been shown by GEM and ICON on and off, looks like the Euro has come around to this too. 

[FroYoBro]

Through Thursday afternoon....

 

 

Here comes a score gif...

[wxmet]

Bad tracks on the ECWMF 12z overall for SEA through Thursday. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is a live view from one of our security cameras at home... this one is in the dining room window pointing towards the new garage that we are building right now.   I can keep watch on the contractors this way.    No one has showed up today though... must be too cold. 

 

[epiceast]

Seattle got no snow but it was cloudy all night... and now its already up to 31 at SEA and sunny.    Which option is that one?   

Why Oregon is a better state????

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Through Thursday afternoon....

 

Solid!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gonna be real close if those maps are to be believed.  Might get warm nosed if that band is a bit too far north.  Hope it slides south through the day.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like there were some -20 to -25F readings in interior BC this AM.

[Perturbed Member]

Awful track...

 

You aren't that far from the northern edge, you never know.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here is one of the best kept secrets for some amazing powder. Not fancy and pretty small but very fun. This is 8 miles from my cabin. http://skisitzmark.org/webcam.html

[Brennan]

Here is a live view from one of our security cameras at home... this one is in the dining room window pointing towards the new garage that we are building right now.   I can keep watch on the contractors this way.    No one has showed up today though... must be too cold. 

 

 

 

Our neighbors are having a new roof put on right now. They just started the job this morning around 8am when it was 24*F and the roof they were peeling off had about half inch of crusted snow on it. NOT FUN!

[Front Ranger]

A low of only 31 at PDX is a pretty ridiculous fail. They should cruise to 40 pretty easily today.

 

Heading towards a midnight low...