bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 About .2" for Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 what's the euro say over this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro with .6" for Waterloo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Really dissolved quick around here. That d**n high pressure absolutely wrecks that second wave. I'm not confident we'll see more than 2-4" here either. Going to have to avoid this thread once storm time rolls in, it's going to be infiltrated by Chicagoans saying "14" here already and LES now kicking in and under a heavy snow band! This is turning out to be bigger than the GHD blizzard!", while we struggle with a WWA that doesn't pan out. WAIT a minute! You're off script..go back to your (Nov?) post and re-study your lines amigo.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'm really not sure why all my fellow Nebraskans(or anyone else) is surprised by the change over the last few days in the models. That's pretty much what happens with every storm, isn't it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro with .6" for WaterlooJust for first wave? (Which is prolly the only wave that will hit N IA anyway) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Hoosier's kinda busy over there at the moment, so I'll post on his behalf.. "A couple models like the GEM and 3km NAM already have a stripe of 1" precip through 00z Sat. If that's the case, then higher end storm totals in excess of a foot and a half would certainly be reachable." 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just for first wave? (Which is prolly the only wave that will hit N IA anyway)yes. I did a 14 day trial off accuweather ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ALO LAT= 42.55 LON= -92.40 ELE= 879 12Z FEB072 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 12Z 07-FEB -13.5 -14.6 1030 81 66 0.00 536 513WED 18Z 07-FEB -11.5 -15.7 1033 69 4 0.00 539 514THU 00Z 08-FEB -16.1 -14.7 1033 75 7 0.00 542 518THU 06Z 08-FEB -16.4 -12.4 1033 76 100 0.00 542 517THU 12Z 08-FEB -14.1 -12.4 1031 79 52 0.01 545 522THU 18Z 08-FEB -9.6 -7.8 1029 68 99 0.00 550 528FRI 00Z 09-FEB -8.8 -7.2 1026 88 100 0.17 551 531FRI 06Z 09-FEB -8.3 -7.9 1024 89 99 0.29 551 532FRI 12Z 09-FEB -9.3 -11.5 1026 83 96 0.13 548 528 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro has about 1/4" qpf for Iowa City about evenly split between the 2 waves. So 1-2" each event. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I don't think north or south of us is going to be that great anyway. The second wave was always going to be the bigger producer, and now that looks like crap so totals aren't going to be that high. I'm guessing a general 2-5" over eastern Nebraska and adjacent area, total between the two systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro has about 1/4" qpf for Iowa City about evenly split between the 2 waves. So 1-2" each event. Yuck. Assuming it's similar for us out here right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z UK just took a giant turd on Iowa.... shifted the first wave a bit north, showing a razor-sharp south edge that screws all from CR southward, now joining other models shifting the second wave southeast, overall cut totals in half for many of us.... now says Omaha gets nothing. UK_12zFeb07.pngOMADOME!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro with about .5" qpf for ORD for the first wave and just over .1" for the second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 what's the euro say over this way?It says get out your snowblower 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro with about .5" qpf for ORD for the first wave and just over .1" for the second. Does not surprise me it has come in much drier as this is what the Euro does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Assuming it's similar for us out here right?.16" total FRI 18Z 09-FEB -9.2 -11.4 1031 68 82 0.01 554 531SAT 00Z 10-FEB -10.9 -11.1 1030 74 96 0.02 553 530SAT 06Z 10-FEB -12.8 -12.5 1032 80 97 0.08 551 527SAT 12Z 10-FEB -13.6 -13.6 1031 81 95 0.05 548 525 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Madison about 1/4" FRI 00Z 09-FEB -7.6 -11.7 1027 79 99 0.02 546 525FRI 06Z 09-FEB -9.1 -10.4 1026 89 100 0.12 547 527FRI 12Z 09-FEB -9.1 -11.7 1025 85 97 0.12 545 526FRI 18Z 09-FEB -8.6 -13.1 1026 69 80 0.01 544 524 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Dr. No agrees with Tabitha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Assuming it's similar for us out here right?Here's Nebraska from the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 LOT will now have to cancel Winter Storm Watch after looking at the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 The other thing that seems to be becoming apparent is that the heavy snow wont be much on spreading the wealth.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I guess we gotta lower our standards again lol. If we end up with 4 to 6 ill be happy. Anything to be over last years total. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z Euro - First wave.... a tick south of 00z.... I'm praying for a one-county south shift because this would kill me to have to watch. This morning's UK and Euro are both showing a razor-sharp south edge.... could go from 6+ inches in one line of counties to 1" one county south. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well the euro is still north so at least there's that. But it's always been the grinch when it comes t thus storm, so I expected that again this run. That said, I did expect to see a southern shift that didn't happen. I'll take a blend of the euro track and GFS amounts please and thank you. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 James jackzone on Euro. Haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z Euro...through Mon 6:00am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z Euro...through Mon 6:00am Latest UK and Euro are hideous... HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC possibly going from amazing to worst-case scenario in two days. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Warning criteria on the table with first wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Concerning the first wave Friday for the Illinois Valley.... Pessimist in me - NAM and EURO are definitely onto something. Today has been shown north as a Rockford special for a few runs now. We're going to have to scrap for a few inches. Optimist in me - GFS has not wavered at all. Has consistently smashed us. We're going to get rocked. Realist in me - Probably somewhere in between 5-6" should be an expectation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Very interesting scenario shaping up. Its not even a low pressure area. Its from a frontal boundary where this snow will develop in those areas, by looking at the maps. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Latest UK and Euro are hideous... worst case scenario for HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC.I wouldn't worry to much about that because it can easily fill in as we get closer. Heck, last nights snow had the heaviest stuff SE of my area and ORD managed to get close to 2". I really don't see "holes" as such that are being depicted out in IA/NE to be that bad. You really need to take an average of all the models and paint an idea in your head. The reality is, these are all computer models and we just have to sit back and relax and see what nature delivers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I wouldn't worry to much about that because it can easily fill in as we get closer. Heck, last nights snow had the heaviest stuff SE of my area and ORD managed to get close to 2". I really don't see "holes" as such that are being depicted out in IA/NE to be that bad. You really need to take an average of all the models and paint an idea in your head. The reality is, these are all computer models and we just have to sit back and relax and see what nature delivers.Given the two wave prospects of this system, it is entirely possible that there is a wedge of screwage in between where the first one and second one track, as opposed to both systems tracking on top of each other which was the theme until last night. We could still trend back that way, but given that time is closing in, I think that trend is here to stay. That said, I think we get the northern wave here and miss out on the second. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 @Neb Wx, remember yesterday when you talked about my luck....well look what the EURO has going right through my area..... I think we all do better than what the models are showing. Like what you said Tom, just need to sit back and wait to see what mother nature deals. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Latest UK and Euro are hideous... HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC possibly going from amazing to worst-case scenario in two days. Thanks to that flatter 2nd wave staying south. Yesterday's split snow streaks screwed NWOH in a similar manner w/headlines north and south of 'em. Hoping Tom's onto something with the last-minute backfilling of qpf Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models 27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpgThat is a very interesting graphic, especially if it's the NWS preferred model blend. Any more details on what goes into that? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I like where im at! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models 27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpgThats some serious spread the wealth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 That is a very interesting graphic, especially if it's the NWS preferred model blend. Any more details on what goes into that?Actually this is the first time I have seen this graphic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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