Jump to content

February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Sciascia
Sciascia

18z NAM, I know. But just for the sake of maps...   http://i63.tinypic.com/2z3qwz6.gif   LOT also updated their snow map through 6pm Friday. Thinking 8-12 for Chicago & most of N IL.  

Jaycee
Jaycee

Here, I'm going to try:       I will bet the sleep of several fortnights upon thee of the most east longitudes of this forum that a miniscule, yet triumphant storm will reign its might and fury upon t

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

It is snowing so heavily right now that I can now barely see the lights 1/8th mile away..

Posted Images

Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Per both NAM's, the wave seems to be digging more as HP presses down across the central Plains allowing the southerly flow out ahead of the system to nudge farther north.  I'm seeing better moisture transport out of the GOM over the past couple runs.

Also seeing some LES action once the first wave comes through

 

Edit: Darn...Tom beat me to it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

This just keeps getting worse.  Every run of every model is taking snow away from us.  The second wave may well whiff southeast, so we can't afford a north trend from the first wave, too.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Also seeing some LES action once the first wave comes through

 

Edit: Darn...Tom beat me to it.

Haha, yup, looks like Friday night into Sat the lake turns on over here...

 

FWIW, the end of the 12z NAM run it's trying to dig the secondary piece as heights rise along the EC.  That piece still has my attention as this jet structure looks intriguing...two jet streams trying to marry...

 

namconus_uv250_us_53.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrianJK Enthusiast

BrianJK

Posted
Posted

12z NAM...now has the heaviest band along the IL/WI border...is it believable???  We'll have to see...but this wave is trending stronger on the NAM.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020712/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Another 50-75 mile shift north and that sharp cutoff will be in the neighborhood.  Can  we discuss some factors that could either:

a) continue to push it north

B) inhibit its northward jog/come back south

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Another 50-75 mile shift north and that sharp cutoff will be in the neighborhood.  Can  we discuss some factors that could either:

a) continue to push it north

B) inhibit its northward jog/come back south

Well, it's hard to say at this point as this is the first 12z model run and I'd like to see what the rest of the suite of models have to show this morning.  The 12z NAM 3km looks very similar to the GFS as for placement of the 1st wave.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

It's still snowing at HR 60....

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_60.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Well, it's hard to say at this point as this is the first 12z model run and I'd like to see what the rest of the suite of models have to show this morning.  The 12z NAM 3km looks very similar to the GFS as for placement of the 1st wave.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

It's still snowing at HR 60....

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_60.png

Looks like it snows hard for another 6hrs after this for the 1st wave with LES kicking in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Nice reading this from IWX this am. GRR's was puke-worthy boring. You'd think we were looking at a 2-4" weekend ahead to read their overnight AFD.

 

Let's just hope we can verify. NAM looking north is a flash-back to last weekend, but we have cold air ahead of this and not a N stream clipper running north of us and SLP's popping up along a CF, which held up the progression of cold down my way.

 

My gut says NAM will come back south a bit. I-80 up to I-94 seems to be in the crosshairs 

 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

A more prolonged snow event is forecast from Thursday night into
Friday night. Isentropic lift should be focused over northern
Indiana into far southern Lower Michigan for an extended time that
may exceed 24 hours. Mixing ratios of 3 g/kg combined with
significant lift on the 295K surface should be enough to generate
snow amounts between 6 and 12 inches over this duration of time.
After coordination with CHI, GRR, DET and CLE, have issued a
winter storm watch for areas especially along and north of highway
6. This includes far southern Lower Michigan into far northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio. There should be a rather large
snowfall gradient south of highway 6 due to less lift and the
possibility of a wintry mix further south. For now given
uncertainty, kept all the precipitation snow. More snow is likely
Saturday as this pattern persists.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

I would ride the EURO in this setup

 

I just hope that second wave comes in stronger like it was previously. I'm scared the first wave will be the strongest and take the available energy for the second wave away (which is essentially where all of our snow will come from).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted

Nice reading this from IWX this am. GRR's was puke-worthy boring. You'd think we were looking at a 2-4" weekend ahead to read their overnight AFD.

 

Let's just hope we can verify. NAM looking north is a flash-back to last weekend, but we have cold air ahead of this and not a N stream clipper running north of us and SLP's popping up along a CF, which held up the progression of cold down my way.

 

My gut says NAM will come back south a bit. I-80 up to I-94 seems to be in the crosshairs 

 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 417 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

 

A more prolonged snow event is forecast from Thursday night into

Friday night. Isentropic lift should be focused over northern

Indiana into far southern Lower Michigan for an extended time that

may exceed 24 hours. Mixing ratios of 3 g/kg combined with

significant lift on the 295K surface should be enough to generate

snow amounts between 6 and 12 inches over this duration of time.

After coordination with CHI, GRR, DET and CLE, have issued a

winter storm watch for areas especially along and north of highway

6. This includes far southern Lower Michigan into far northern

Indiana and northwest Ohio. There should be a rather large

snowfall gradient south of highway 6 due to less lift and the

possibility of a wintry mix further south. For now given

uncertainty, kept all the precipitation snow. More snow is likely

Saturday as this pattern persists.

 GRR did mention 4-7 inches from I-96 south

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...