February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Niko]

00z NAM is sweet. Great run.

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON worst run of the day for Iowa.  First wave is still north, weekend wave too far southeast.

 

GFS and ICON today have both shown less digging of the trough in the west, which means the flow is not backing to the sw as much and the cold push and second wave is able to progress farther southeast 

 

[Money]

Northern IL gets hit by all 3 waves on gfs

 

18-22 totals showing up just south of Chicago

[Madtown]

unreal

[Money]

GFS

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020700&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[bud2380]

Beautiful

[Hawkeye]

This is not a good trend this evening.  There's too much of a southeastward push following the first wave.

[Iowawx]

This is my best chance to get 8+ inches of snow here in quite some time. Wouldn’t be surprised if watches are issued in early morning.

[james1976]

Ill still take that 7" but dang....IL gonna get hit. Tom has been waiting all winter. This may be your weekend, buddy.

[hlcater]

This is not a good trend this evening.  There's too much of a southeastward push following the first wave.

Like you said, the its because the trough keeps trending flatter and isn't digging as much. Therefore the warm advection you'd associate with a SW/Sly flow doesn't happen and the cold wins out. For Iowa to see a truly big event. If this takes place, this event won't reach it's full potential. At least for our area. Hopefully it gets it's act together and trends towards the NAM, which is supposedly pretty aggressive with the WAA at the end of the run.

[bud2380]

I’m not going to complain about a model showing 13” where I live. I was actually encouraged by this run because the first wave is only 48 hours out and it hits my area very good. With the Euro being further north i was concerned the gfs May trend that way. The fact that it didn’t is encouraging to me.

[Money]

So many waves/moving parts that the potential big one is def still up in the air. Gotta wait until everything gets sampled.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This thing just smells of dirty tricks and fast ones lol. Changes are not over by a long shot. Not gonna complain when GFS has 6-7 here and CMC much higher. 

[bud2380]

I can only find black and white maps for the Canadian since tropical tidbits isn’t updating and pivotal is slow but the Canadian appears to be very strong with the first wave.

[Jaycee]

Not a fan of the trends tonight- most models keep the heaviest bands north and east. I feel like asking for the storm to move SW is possibly the most unlikely scenario in terms of directions to turn.

[Minny_Weather]

This thing screams "Too far South and East for anyone on here besides Michigan people who will get a foot"

 

And the initial wave is too far North. Bah.

[Tom]

Not gonna lie, I'm getting pretty stoked to finally have a chance at a big hit this season for what has been a season of misses to this point.  Even though the 00z GFS has the jackpot zone south of Chi on this run , it's close enough for my liking and matches up quite well compared to the 12z EPS.  Having said that, I think N IL/N IN/S MI peeps should fair quite well with this long duration system and be in the vicinity of the best pivot zone of both waves of energy.  

 

That secondary piece hanging back in the SW is kicking out faster than what has been advertised for days, some runs even cutting off, which I knew from the get-go was wrong bc it's never happened in this years pattern.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CMC is almost identical to the GFS, less emphasis with the second wave. Plenty of time for it to change though.

[Tony]

CMC first wave is a big big run and little North of GFS it looks like.

[Tom]

12z GGEM is juiced...this is only though Sat 6:00pm...

 

[GDR]

I’ll take the 12 the gfs is cooking

[Tony]

12z GGEM is juiced...this is only though Sat 6:00pm...

 

Looks like the NAM run

[Madtown]

Pretty solid consensus

[bud2380]

I’d love to see a winter storm watch. Since we haven’t had one all year. They will probably wait until tomorrow afternoon at earliest though.if they issue one at all.

[Hawkeye]

It looks like there will be more wind with this system, which I don't care for, because it makes measuring tougher.

[bud2380]

UK isn’t updating either. Should be out by now.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Pretty solid consensus

Solid consensus for the night lol, watch tomorrow be completely different.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018020700/144/snku_acc.us_c.png

[bud2380]

SREF plumes up to 6” for Cedar Rapids with a high of 16” that’s the 21z. I’d expect the 03z to go up.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

SREF plumes up to 6” for Cedar Rapids with a high of 16” that’s the 21z. I’d expect the 03z to go up.

Link to the SREF?

[bud2380]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[Minny_Weather]

Highest for here is around 15". I went ahead and hid that one, which brought the mean to about 4".

[Minny_Weather]

I see OAX has a handle on it. I love the elaboration. 

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Periods of light snow begin Thursday and last through Saturdaynight.

 

[james1976]

Im still wondering what offices will do regarding headlines. Is there enough duration between systems for the offices to separate headlines?

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... similar to the 12z, but the first wave moves through more quickly, so the snowfall is less.  The UK is taking the snowfall from the second wave across Iowa, not more southeast like the GFS/ICON/GDPS.

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

00z UK... similar to the 12z, but the first wave moves through more quickly, so the snowfall is less.  The UK is taking the snowfall from the second wave across Iowa, not more southeast like the GFS/ICON/GDPS.

 

UK_00zFeb07.png

Wow... .70 here. I like!

[Minny_Weather]

Im still wondering what offices will do regarding headlines. Is there enough duration between systems for the offices to separate headlines?

I'd say yes. They base headlines off of what happens in 24 hours. So 2 days worth of WWAs is a very good possibility instead of one WSW.

[Money]

How’s euro look?

[Snowlover76]

I'd say yes. They base headlines off of what happens in 24 hours. So 2 days worth of WWAs is a very good possibility instead of one WSW.

and I'm sure Lincoln will do it's best to do zero plowing

[Minny_Weather]

and I'm sure Lincoln will do it's best to do zero plowing

No kidding. I know it's a problem everywhere, but their standards for when they start plowing vs. just brining is just ridiculous. They think brine is a magic serum that melts snow on contact. No. Bring out the plows.