February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[james1976]

Looks i get hit mostly from 1st wave. Luckily it dumps pretty good.

IL is in the pivot area for all the waves. Models are consistent with that.

[Jaycee]

Still ends up hitting Chicago lol

 

They get hit with all 3 waves

 

It's insane no? I have never seen models be consistent for days on end for one specific area like this.

[GDR]

Gfs way south in ia

[gimmesnow]

Are weather.com and wunderclown insane? They're saying I'm going to get less than 2 inches from all of this, and all the models are saying more like 4 to 8

[BrianJK]

It's insane no? I have never seen models be consistent for days on end for one specific area like this.

 

Very strange to say the least

[Tony]

Still ends up hitting Chicago lol

 

They get hit with all 3 waves

 

High Pressure sends it down south of everyone though.

I still believe that this last wave will be farther NW then what is being currently modeled. I know it's not a super strong wave but can't see it being pushed that far SE with really not that strong of a HP. Still a ways to go but thinking trends will be to bring it back north again.

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS (Canadian)

 

[hlcater]

Bad trends continue, this is going from being really something to a garden variety WSW. I'll still take it, but the trends of seperating everything and shunting it south certainly aren't good for us.

[Tabitha]

How many times have I written that the GFS & CMC & ICON vastly overdo QPF beyond 72 - 84 Hours; especially with systems that have practically no upper level support; before they figure it out with 36 or so hours to go?

 

It is an algorithmic flaw written into the numerical modeling that the model designers have never bothered to correct.

 

It is almost like "how many times does a person need to be lied to before they figure out the entity telling the lies is a liar?"

[Madtown]

looks like last weekend was our main event now

[Tabitha]

especially with systems that have practically no upper level support;

 

 

It is a mathematical impossibility to get a major snowstorm (even in locations with large bodies of water adjacent...the exception being lake-effect...and that's not a synoptic storm anyway) unless the surface reflection of low pressure is replicated far up into the higher levels of the troposphere; i.e. the lowest level of the atmosphere...the level beneath the stratosphere.

 

This is because in order to effectuate exceptional QPF totals; there needs to be lift, convection, rising air; sharp vertical temperature contrast between the surface and say 15,000 feet above it. 

 

This lift can only manifest when the storm is present at the 925 mb level, the 850 mb level, & the 700 mb level.

 

This generates what is known as vertical motion; the process by which heavy snow is created.

 

Without it; you are going to be left with pedestrian QPF totals; no matter where you are...on the Great Plains; or on the East Coast.

[Tom]

12z GFS...seems to be placing the jackpot zone just south of Chicago....00z/12z runs have been pretty steady about this placement.  @Snowman1, I don't think you should worry to much.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020712/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

For comparison, instantwxmaps seem to be agreeing with the Kuchera method in terms of fluff factor...

[indianajohn]

Man of these model hold up NWI is going to get hammered!!!!

[Niko]

Accu-Weather buries my area.

[gosaints]

Accu-Weather buries my area.

Take them to the bank

[Tabitha]

Since 1884-85 / 133 years Chicago has about 10 storms greater than 15 inches; but all of a sudden they are going to get another; with an utter lack of upper level support.

 

GFS Kuchera says so!

 

Whatever; let me now how it works out.

[Money]

Ukie took a jump north

[Tom]

Man of these model hold up NWI is going to get hammered!!!!

Finally, the tides have turned in our favor!  I think you look golden and may be near the epicenter, if not very close to it.  Just took a glance at the RPM model and it looks a lot like the 12z NAM 3km pounding Chitown and N IN into S MI.  From what I'm seeing, this set up is looking very similar to the one we saw a couple days ago which had the heaviest returns on the southern periphery of the main snow shield.  In essence, the ones who appear to be cashing in on the highest totals will prob be close to I-80 across N IL and about a county north of there.

[Money]

Ukie

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=042&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

 

Looks like it also has a bigger storm after hitting NE/IA at 72

[Niko]

Feel very confident that watches and warnings will be posted later this afternoon.

[Tom]

12z GEFS total qpf...trends in total qpf...confidence is increasing that Chitown has a good chance at seeing 10"+ out of this one.  However, meso scale banding is going to be important factor.

[bud2380]

Wrong

 

Look out in Minnesota/Dakotas etc

Not wrong.  Look at the 12z GFS vs the 00z, they are almost identical on the northern edge.

 

 

12z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020700/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

RPM model thru Fri 10:00pm:  ORD: 8.6", Midway: 9.2", Peru: 5.4", Romeoville: 9.5", Valpo: 11.4"

[snowman1]

12z GFS...seems to be placing the jackpot zone just south of Chicago....00z/12z runs have been pretty steady about this placement.  @Snowman1, I don't think you should worry to much.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020712/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Nice 15.7 blip right over us. We're riding or dying with the GFS down here! Let's anchor this thing down.

 

 

NAM has the 6+ amounts for Friday barely into IL though. That's got me a little worried as far as Friday is concerned.

[Tony]

Since 1884-85 / 133 years Chicago has about 10 storms greater than 15 inches; but all of a sudden they are going to get another; with an utter lack of upper level support.

 

GFS Kuchera says so!

 

Whatever; let me now how it works out.

We have a tight baroclinic zone and abundance of moisture which seems like we have plenty to work with even without upper level support. Every model suggests a high end warning type snows. Will it reach your 15" mark, I don't know but 12" at this point seems like a good bet. Just my thoughts for whatever it is worth.

 

Edit: Forgot to add in meso banding. Wherever this sets up will get pounded on and possibly for a long duration in the same areas.

[Money]

Not wrong.  Look at the 12z GFS vs the 00z, they are almost identical on the northern edge.

 

 

12z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020700/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

You’re factoring in the snow that fell last night in those areas

 

Use 24 hr snowfall

[Hawkeye]

12z UK just took a giant turd on Iowa.... shifted the first wave a bit north, showing a razor-sharp south edge that screws all from CR southward, now joining other models shifting the second wave southeast, overall cut totals in half for many of us.... now says Omaha gets nothing.

 

[shakjen]

Finally, the tides have turned in our favor!  I think you look golden and may be near the epicenter, if not very close to it.  Just took a glance at the RPM model and it looks a lot like the 12z NAM 3km pounding Chitown and N IN into S MI.  From what I'm seeing, this set up is looking very similar to the one we saw a couple days ago which had the heaviest returns on the southern periphery of the main snow shield.  In essence, the ones who appear to be cashing in on the highest totals will prob be close to I-80 across N IL and about a county north of there.

That would be nice, considering I can see I-80 as I type this.

[BLIZZARD09]

Boy Tom , you really were on the button with you ur call for a wild Feburary--congrats

[jaster220]

There’s another wave developing at hr 90 with a ton of precip breaking out in NE/CO etc farther north than 6z so far

 

That's our problem, it's just a "wave" without a SLP reflected til it pops one off the EC. The arguement that this can't slide more E to SE (like everything has this season) is false thanks to this fact. What T has been harping on wrt to lack of upper lvl dynamics. Was hoping for a better defined storm system out of the 2nd piece but not looking like that happens - again

[Minny_Weather]

Yay, another WWA for 2-4" upcoming for here!!

[Jaycee]

Really dissolved quick around here. That D**n high pressure absolutely wrecks that second wave. I'm not confident we'll see more than 2-4" here either.

 

Going to have to avoid this thread once storm time rolls in, it's going to be infiltrated by Chicagoans saying "14" here already and LES now kicking in and under a heavy snow band! This is turning out to be bigger than the GHD blizzard!", while we struggle with a WWA that doesn't pan out.

[Snowlover76]

Depressing

[VMB443]

Here I was, starting to get depressed and Milwaukee just issued a Winter Storm Watch, here's the info:

 

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday evening...

* what... heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the morning commute on Friday. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches are possible.

* Where... portions of southeast Wisconsin.

* When... from Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* Additional details... significant reductions in visibility are
possible. Blowing and drifting snow is possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

[Stacsh]

Depressing

More like suppressing....amiright?

[Snowlover76]

More like suppressing....amiright?

I'm sure money will be in here soon to mock Nebraska posters like he normally does

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow im really getting discouraged here. looked so good yesterday now its just splitting us here. Heaviest north and south. Not again what the hell!

[bud2380]

Euro stays further north in Iowa.  Heavy snow for Dubuque Thursday night into Friday.  Much less down by Iowa City.  Over .4" vs. about .1"

[Money]

I'm sure money will be in here soon to mock Nebraska posters like he normally does

Stick to politics plz