February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[bud2380]

About .2" for Cedar Rapids.  

[Madtown]

what's the euro say over this way?

[bud2380]

Euro with .6" for Waterloo

[jaster220]

Really dissolved quick around here. That d**n high pressure absolutely wrecks that second wave. I'm not confident we'll see more than 2-4" here either.

 

Going to have to avoid this thread once storm time rolls in, it's going to be infiltrated by Chicagoans saying "14" here already and LES now kicking in and under a heavy snow band! This is turning out to be bigger than the GHD blizzard!", while we struggle with a WWA that doesn't pan out.

 

WAIT a minute!  You're off script..go back to your (Nov?) post and re-study your lines amigo..

[FarmerRick]

I'm really not sure why all my fellow Nebraskans(or anyone else) is surprised by the change over the last few days in the models. That's pretty much what happens with every storm, isn't it?  

[james1976]

Euro with .6" for Waterloo

Just for first wave? (Which is prolly the only wave that will hit N IA anyway)

[jaster220]

Hoosier's kinda busy over there at the moment, so I'll post on his behalf..

 

"A couple models like the GEM and 3km NAM already have a stripe of 1" precip through 00z Sat.  If that's the case, then higher end storm totals in excess of a foot and a half  would certainly be reachable."

[bud2380]

Just for first wave? (Which is prolly the only wave that will hit N IA anyway)

yes.  I did a 14 day trial off accuweather

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ALO LAT= 42.55 LON= -92.40 ELE= 879

 

12Z FEB07

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

WED 12Z 07-FEB -13.5 -14.6 1030 81 66 0.00 536 513

WED 18Z 07-FEB -11.5 -15.7 1033 69 4 0.00 539 514

THU 00Z 08-FEB -16.1 -14.7 1033 75 7 0.00 542 518

THU 06Z 08-FEB -16.4 -12.4 1033 76 100 0.00 542 517

THU 12Z 08-FEB -14.1 -12.4 1031 79 52 0.01 545 522

THU 18Z 08-FEB -9.6 -7.8 1029 68 99 0.00 550 528

FRI 00Z 09-FEB -8.8 -7.2 1026 88 100 0.17 551 531

FRI 06Z 09-FEB -8.3 -7.9 1024 89 99 0.29 551 532

FRI 12Z 09-FEB -9.3 -11.5 1026 83 96 0.13 548 528 

[bud2380]

Euro has about 1/4" qpf for Iowa City about evenly split between the 2 waves.  So 1-2" each event.  Yuck.  

[NEJeremy]

I don't think north or south of us is going to be that great anyway. The second wave was always going to be the bigger producer, and now that looks like crap so totals aren't going to be that high. I'm guessing a general 2-5" over eastern Nebraska and adjacent area, total between the two systems. 

[Jaycee]

Euro has about 1/4" qpf for Iowa City about evenly split between the 2 waves.  So 1-2" each event.  Yuck.  

 

Assuming it's similar for us out here right?

[NEJeremy]

12z UK just took a giant turd on Iowa.... shifted the first wave a bit north, showing a razor-sharp south edge that screws all from CR southward, now joining other models shifting the second wave southeast, overall cut totals in half for many of us.... now says Omaha gets nothing.

 

UK_12zFeb07.png

OMADOME!!!  

[bud2380]

Euro with about .5" qpf for ORD for the first wave and just over .1" for the second.  

[Money]

what's the euro say over this way?

It says get out your snowblower

[Tony]

Euro with about .5" qpf for ORD for the first wave and just over .1" for the second.  

Does not surprise me it has come in much drier as this is what the Euro does.

[bud2380]

Assuming it's similar for us out here right?

.16" total

 

FRI 18Z 09-FEB -9.2 -11.4 1031 68 82    0.01 554 531

SAT 00Z 10-FEB -10.9 -11.1 1030 74 96 0.02 553 530

SAT 06Z 10-FEB -12.8 -12.5 1032 80 97 0.08 551 527

SAT 12Z 10-FEB -13.6 -13.6 1031 81 95 0.05 548 525 

[bud2380]

Madison about 1/4"

 

 

FRI 00Z 09-FEB -7.6 -11.7 1027 79 99   0.02 546 525
FRI 06Z 09-FEB -9.1 -10.4 1026 89 100 0.12 547 527
FRI 12Z 09-FEB -9.1 -11.7 1025 85 97   0.12 545 526
FRI 18Z 09-FEB -8.6 -13.1 1026 69 80   0.01 544 524 

[gosaints]

Dr.  No agrees with Tabitha

[NEJeremy]

Assuming it's similar for us out here right?

Here's Nebraska from the Euro.

[Tony]

LOT will now have to cancel Winter Storm Watch after looking at the Euro

[gosaints]

The other thing that seems to be becoming apparent is that the heavy snow wont be much on spreading the wealth..

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I guess we gotta lower our standards again lol. If we end up with 4 to 6 ill be happy. Anything to be over last years total.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro - First wave.... a tick south of 00z.... I'm praying for a one-county south shift because this would kill me to have to watch.  This morning's UK and Euro are both showing a razor-sharp south edge.... could go from 6+ inches in one line of counties to 1" one county south.

 

[hlcater]

Well the euro is still north so at least there's that. But it's always been the grinch when it comes t thus storm, so I expected that again this run. That said, I did expect to see a southern shift that didn't happen. I'll take a blend of the euro track and GFS amounts please and thank you.

[james1976]

James jackzone on Euro. Haha

[Tom]

12z Euro...through Mon 6:00am

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro...through Mon 6:00am

 

Latest UK and Euro are hideous... HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC possibly going from amazing to worst-case scenario in two days.

[james1976]

Warning criteria on the table with first wave.

[snowman1]

Concerning the first wave Friday for the Illinois Valley....

 

Pessimist in me - NAM and EURO are definitely onto something. Today has been shown north as a Rockford special for a few runs now. We're going to have to scrap for a few inches.

 

Optimist in me - GFS has not wavered at all. Has consistently smashed us. We're going to get rocked.

 

Realist in me - Probably somewhere in between 5-6" should be an expectation.

[Niko]

Very interesting scenario shaping up. Its not even a low pressure area. Its from a frontal boundary where this snow will develop in those areas, by looking at the maps.

[Tom]

Latest UK and Euro are hideous... worst case scenario for HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC.

I wouldn't worry to much about that because it can easily fill in as we get closer.  Heck, last nights snow had the heaviest stuff SE of my area and ORD managed to get close to 2".  I really don't see "holes" as such that are being depicted out in IA/NE to be that bad.  You really need to take an average of all the models and paint an idea in your head.  The reality is, these are all computer models and we just have to sit back and relax and see what nature delivers.

[hlcater]

I wouldn't worry to much about that because it can easily fill in as we get closer.  Heck, last nights snow had the heaviest stuff SE of my area and ORD managed to get close to 2".  I really don't see "holes" as such that are being depicted out in IA/NE to be that bad.  You really need to take an average of all the models and paint an idea in your head.  The reality is, these are all computer models and we just have to sit back and relax and see what nature delivers.

Given the two wave prospects of this system, it is entirely possible that there is a wedge of screwage in between where the first one and second one track, as opposed to both systems tracking on top of each other which was the theme until last night. We could still trend back that way, but given that time is closing in, I think that trend is here to stay. That said, I think we get the northern wave here and miss out on the second.

[gabel23]

@Neb Wx, remember yesterday when you talked about my luck....well look what the EURO has going right through my area.....

 

I think we all do better than what the models are showing. Like what you said Tom, just need to sit back and wait to see what mother nature deals. 

[jaster220]

Latest UK and Euro are hideous... HW-30/I-80 corridor from Omaha to CR/IC possibly going from amazing to worst-case scenario in two days.

 

Thanks to that flatter 2nd wave staying south. Yesterday's split snow streaks screwed NWOH in a similar manner w/headlines north and south of 'em. Hoping Tom's onto something with the last-minute backfilling of qpf 

[Yerf]

[Yerf]

Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models

 

[hlcater]

Skilling:An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models

 

27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpg

That is a very interesting graphic, especially if it's the NWS preferred model blend. Any more details on what goes into that?

[james1976]

I like where im at!

[james1976]

Skilling:

An average of the top snowfall forecasts by a suite of NWS models

 

27709387_10156001839736760_1532393932243962529_o.jpg

Thats some serious spread the wealth

[Yerf]

That is a very interesting graphic, especially if it's the NWS preferred model blend. Any more details on what goes into that?

Actually this is the first time I have seen this graphic