February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Snowlover76]

No kidding. I know it's a problem everywhere, but their standards for when they start plowing vs. just brining is just ridiculous. They think brine is a magic serum that melts snow on contact. No. Bring out the plows.

the wheel tax goes to good use

[Minny_Weather]

the wheel tax goes to good use

I live off an arterial (Pioneers) and they'll always refuse to plow it, or they'll half-assedly plow one lane once just using the type of plow that shoves snow off to both sides, so basically onto the sidewalk and into the lane that they were too tired to plow. You'd think they'd treat a bus route better.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO is weaker for everyone but Chicagoland. A solid 4-6 across a good part of Nebraska. Overall 0z models weakened the system. lets see what happens tomorrow shall we?

[Hawkeye]

00z euro is awful.... really backing off the great potential.  The first wave is still aimed at northern Iowa, so it refuses to budge from that, but it's weaker this run and passes through more quickly just like the UK tonight, and now the second wave is weak garbage.  Much of Iowa now only gets 0.25-0.40" qpf for the entire multi-wave event.  Heck, we got that much yesterday.  If that's all we manage to get this week, it would be a huge disappointment.

 

[Snowlover76]

I live off an arterial (Pioneers) and they'll always refuse to plow it, or they'll half-assedly plow one lane once just using the type of plow that shoves snow off to both sides, so basically onto the sidewalk and into the lane that they were too tired to plow. You'd think they'd treat a bus route better.

the worst is for if you don't live off a main road you will never see a plow unless there is 5 or 6" lincoln actually has a policy for this.

 

Like I said that wheel tax goes to good use.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not bad!

 

 

[shakjen]

LOT already put a a winter storm watch for Thursday into Friday. And that’s only for the first wave. Hopefully the second is just as strong.

[shakjen]

LOT: Thursday evening and continue through much of the day Friday. NAM and GFS are in reasonably agreement within a few counties painting a stripe of QPF of 3/4 to

near an inch across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana by Friday night. Forecast soundings do show nice cross-hair signatures within the greatest QPF axis which would help promote higher SLR, though in general remain conservative (12-15:1).

[GDR]

Looks like icon and gfs are south a little more

[bud2380]

DVN talking advisories again. They are already calling for 5-6” Friday and a few more Saturday. Not sure why you wouldn’t just issue a watch. And they might yet this afternoon.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Tom]

The season's first Winter Storm Watch hoisted from LOT:

 

 

 

 

Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
332 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

ILZ006-013-014-022-INZ001-002-071745-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0002.180209T0500Z-180210T0500Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-Will-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, Chicago, Joliet, Gary,
and Valparaiso
332 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
possible.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Tom it’s still supposed to snow after the watch expires, no? Isn’t LOT expecting total accums to be more than 5-9”?

[Tom]

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020706/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

06z NAM...secondary wave developing at the end of the run...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020706/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Tom it’s still supposed to snow after the watch expires, no? Isn’t LOT expecting total accums to be more than 5-9”?

Yes, this is just for the 1st wave through Fri night...

[Tom]

00z/06z GEFS still look pretty healthy qpf wise across our general region...looks like the lower lakes region may in fact be the jackpot zone...

 

 

 

[Tom]

For comparison, here is the 00z EPS/Control and you can see the Euro is a bit farther north with the heavier band compared to the GEFS about a county or two.

 

FWIW, the 00z EPS has dried up a bit but it's been going back and forth each run.  The 12z EPS run may trend back wetter so we'll see.

[St Paul Storm]

Yes, this is just for the 1st wave through Fri night...

Enjoy your big dog buddy!

[Tom]

Here's a local snowfall map of the Euro through Friday night...

 

[Madtown]

just another 2-3" here. Maybe we find our big dog next year! Enjoy Tom!

[Tom]

Enjoy your big dog buddy!

Thanks amigo!  Been waiting a few years for a big one and this system looks like it will be the one.  My parents are still here to enjoy it as well, well, maybe not my Dad but my Mom def likes to see the snow!  Their flight out is at 7:00am on Sunday so that second wave is going to be something I'll be paying attn to for them.

[Niko]

This will be one prolonged, heavy snowevent.

[snowman1]

Here's a local snowfall map of the Euro through Friday night...

 

 

The King has got us worried down here in the Illinois Valley. Seems to be out on its own with as far north as it is, no? Huge contrast for us from Euro at 3.9" and GFS giving 9+ for this first wave on Friday. What gives?

[WBadgersW]

Good luck to you guys in Illinois. Hopefullly it all works out

[Tom]

The King has got us worried down here in the Illinois Valley. Seems to be out on its own with as far north as it is, no? Huge contrast for us from Euro at 3.9" and GFS giving 9+ for this first wave on Friday. What gives?

At this point, I'd side with something in between.  Can't argue the GEFS ensembles that paint a better picture down by you.  Let's see where the models trend today.

[Tom]

12z NAM throwing in a curveball and trending north...way north actually...

[Madtown]

digging more in the sw?

[WBadgersW]

.75-1" of qpf showing up on both sides of the boarder.

[Tom]

12z NAM...now has the heaviest band along the IL/WI border...is it believable???  We'll have to see...but this wave is trending stronger on the NAM.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020712/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

Still expect a little fluctuation north and south with these coming runs but being in the middle for once sure does help. Hoping the 2nd wave can get its act together

[Money]

Interesting.

 

I’ll take the nam and run

[Tom]

Still expect a little fluctuation north and south with these coming runs but being in the middle for once sure does help. Hoping the 2nd wave can get its act together

My thoughts exactly...for once it feels a whole lot better being in the middle ground somewhat as I expect to see some variances among the models.

[St Paul Storm]

Huh. Trend setter or just the NAM being dumb? You have to sweat out a few bad runs in order to earn a big dog. It’s never easy.

[Tony]

Interesting.

 

I’ll take the nam and run

I knew you would like this run of the Nam

[Madtown]

[Tony]

Roughly about 27hrs of snow with the first wave on the Nam.

[Money]

3k nam also took a jump north. Lines up with the 12k

[Tom]

Per both NAM's, the wave seems to be digging more as HP presses down across the central Plains allowing the southerly flow out ahead of the system to nudge farther north.  I'm seeing better moisture transport out of the GOM over the past couple runs.