CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2018 Report Share Posted March 12, 2018 Forum is starting to go quiet. I enjoy the arrival of spring, but am a little sad at the end of our winter discussions. Not quite the winter I was hoping for or expecting around here, but the fellow posters make it a fun hobby, even if we don’t always agree. Hope for a couple more snow events, but this time of year it doesn’t stick around for long. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted March 12, 2018 Report Share Posted March 12, 2018 18z GFS lays a pretty decent swath of snow Sun-Mon across NE Nebraska for what it's worth! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2018 Report Share Posted March 12, 2018 18z GFS lays a pretty decent swath of snow Sun-Mon across NE Nebraska for what it's worth!Wash, rinse, repeat. Same places different storm. They have actually had quite a winter compared to many other parts of Nebraska. Right now we just need a moisture laden storm in any form. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Forum is starting to go quiet. I enjoy the arrival of spring, but am a little sad at the end of our winter discussions. Not quite the winter I was hoping for or expecting around here, but the fellow posters make it a fun hobby, even if we don’t always agree. Hope for a couple more snow events, but this time of year it doesn’t stick around for long. It sucks, but I'll be back next fall. I just don't care about severe weather and stuff. It's interesting, but it's not as fun as snow. Having fun snow time is a rare treat, you get to watch for storms and watch the weather and get excited about going snowmobiling, having a powder day skiing/snowboarding, x-country skiing, etc. Even now, as everyone else noted, March snow is useless. It disappears way too fast. Even the ski hill is losing a decent amount, they're already at the point bald spots show up and they have to comb them over the next day with snow where it's thicker. Snowboarding/skiing can really suck this time of year. The snow gets soft, everyone pushes it up and carves trenches and makes hills. Then the sun goes down and it all freezes like that. You can watch all the regulars start the season all excited, and this timeof year everyone is pretty down and just clinging onto what's left of the hill. Tomorrow should be really good though, party cloudy and it's going to stay below 31. Hopefully it doesn't get too soft. It didn't melt enough that it'll turn back into ice when it refreezes and it'll still stay like snow cone snow. General attitude is of disappointment for everyone who is still holding onto winter, specially because even if you get something, it's not going to last very long. Though we did get a record melt off with that last really good snow we had, and that wasn't even in March. I sure hope we can go back toward more forward loaded winters. Getting the good snows at the end of February and into March is such a waste. You get a few days of fun and then it all goes away. Hopefully the sun keeps heading the way it has been, and we can start to see more and more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 This is a bit of a surprise... Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL325 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018ILZ006-013-014-022-023-INZ001-131500-Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-Will-Kankakee-Lake IN-Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, Chicago, Joliet,Kankakee, and Gary325 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018...Scattered Snow Showers Likely this Afternoon...Snow showers are likely to develop over portions of the area thisafternoon as a weather disturbance moves over the area.Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for brief bursts ofmoderate to heavy snow, which may cause rapid reductions in thevisibility to under a mile and possibly some minor snowaccumulations. While the snow may struggle to accumulate on arearoads, it could cause slick conditions on area bridges andoverpasses. Given that this could have an impact on the afternooncommute, motorists should plan on extra time to reach theredestination. Latest 06z NAM 3km showing the band developing in NE IL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Folks, if you thought for a chance winter was over, mother nature is not going to be your friend for the remainder of this month. All the models are backing off any warmth in the longer range. The long standing idea of back to back systems starting this weekend is lining up quite well on the models. In fact, the models are trending to more snow than rain across portions of NE into IA for Fri-Sat. Following this system, the anticipated Spring Solstice Storm is coming together later next week, of which, will not be ushering Spring-like wx, but rather, more wintry precip instead. Let's dive in... 00z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031300/120/snku_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031300/132/qpf_acc.us_c.png 06z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031300/084/snku_acc.us_c.png I don't have the Euro maps, but I'm assuming it is showing snow as well with cold 850's across NE for the Fri-Sat system. Might decided to start a thread for this system today if trends hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Here's the 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Sheesh, the 00z EPS is cold Week 2... The silver lining with colder pattern and blocking, you get an active west/east storm track and a much wetter pattern develops across the central Plains and into the MW/GL's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 I wonder what the AGW crowd will be saying about Antarctica's wx this summer when the southern hemisphere will be locked in winter. CFSv2 suggesting another very cold outlook, but I thought its supposed to be warming at the Poles??? Moreover, the model sees most of the continent in a trough-like pattern over the next 9 months suggesting more evidence we are heading towards global cooling. IF this is right, and IF, the CFSv2 is right on the idea of cooler ENSO conditions into Autumn of next year, I really believe that we will see a significant drop in global temps by end of this year into the following year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change. Way too small a sample size to declare any sort of meaningful trend or change. Wasn’t too long ago that we had 10 consecutive days between 80-90 degrees this time of year. That was pretty amazing thinking back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change. Way too small a sample size to declare any sort of meaningful trend or change. Wasn’t too long ago that we had 10 consecutive days between 80-90 degrees this time of year. That was pretty amazing thinking back.I agree, March '12 was a torch and a torchy year all together and the pattern that set up in Oct-Nov '11 lead to that warm start to Spring and eventually a hot summer. Now, as I stated, this may just be the start of a longer (5-10 year) trend so we will have to look back in 2025 to see if I was right or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Sounds like a plan. We’ll meet up in Houghton in 2025 and reflect - lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 12z NAM flashing snow/ice potential... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/snku_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/zr_acc.us_c.png More importantly, much needed moisture across the ag belt of NE/IA... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/qpf_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 12z NAM flashing snow/ice potential... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/snku_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/zr_acc.us_c.png More importantly, much needed moisture across the ag belt of NE/IA... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031312/084/qpf_acc.us_c.pngHave not seen any local forecasters even talking about this. NWS Hastings has a High of 51 and a chance of Showers on Friday. I will have to check the afternoon disco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 At this time NW Grand Rapids is getting a very heavy snow shower with large flakes and a lot of wind the temp here is now at 30. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 At this time NW Grand Rapids is getting a very heavy snow shower with large flakes and a lot of wind the temp here is now at 30.I'm about ready to get in on these convective snow showers in a bit. Just came back from doing a little shopping before the streets get wet so I don't dirty up my clean ride! http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1556.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 GFS really fizzles out as it gets to Iowa. Seems about right. I don't care if we get rain or snow, but we could use some moisture here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Canadian and ICON show the same thing. So not only are we not getting our nice warmup models were showing, we're also just getting cold with no precip here. Double whammy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Getting some heavy snow showers while driving up to Grafton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Winter still hanging on strong up in the U.P....this shot is near Marquette, MI... Captain Obvious!! (hehehe) When isn't winter hanging on UP there?? The place that has icebergs dotting the shoreline at the end of June more than once.. RPM model also painting maybe 1-2" of LES...wasn't it right around this time last year we had that LES event?? Like last year, an inland Nor'Easter developed which tugged down cold air and LES. Changing times??? I find it rather interesting that March's have turned colder around these parts and the fact that last year we had a similar wx pattern provides some evidence of such change. I've posted on the parallels between this season and last and here's another one..March snowfall for mby this year = 4.7 and last year = 4.6 On this date a year ago, I had a solid 3" in Marshall as that slider system headed east on it's course to become the ECoastal major storm..same stuff basically, a year later.. This current storm is jackpotting a little east of the last one, but still, that region's scoring their 3rd major in 2 wks while we cheer on white scraps (or cheer for signs of spring, lol). I won't miss the pattern of these 2 seasons tbh, even if this one's total snowfall will be a bit better Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 OAX NWS tweet about an hour ago: “Pretty decent warmup coming tomorrow as highs reach the 60s in many areas. But we're also looking at potential for a snowstorm for some areas by Friday. March can be a crazy month! #newx #iawx” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Looks like another possible Nor'Easter next week for the EC once again. Meanwhile, Boston is getting pounded w more than a foot of snow. Blizzard Warnings for them. Atm, no severe weather IMBY looking likely at all for the rest of this month as cold air remains put. Bummer! Hopefully, April can provide some severe potential alerts for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 The lake I live by is almost entirely unfrozen for the first time since December. Only one small patch of ice remains. It was a good season for ice fishers. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 I have awoken with snow on the ground 1/2" to an 1") every morning for the last 5 days. It is gone just after sun up. Just had a heavy snow shower move through and put down 1/4" to 1/2". It melted within 10 minutes of the sun popping out. Wash Rinse Repeat. Annoying weather pattern here in Michigan. Lousy Smarch weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Pockets of 35 dbz returns heading this way into N Cook...skies have darkened and day light has dimmed, has that feel of a summer time thunderstorm approaching... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1824.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 All of the 12Z models, CMC, ICON, GFS, show plenty of moisture coming through the Central Plains in the next 10-15 days, (some rain, freezing rain, or snow). We really need to start building up the moisture in these next couple of months in any form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 12Z Euro putting down a large swath of precipitation down across all of Nebraska in the next 6 days (some parts rain, some parts snow). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 These are the most incredible snow fall rates I have seen in my life! Huge dendrites, wind, 1 block visibility, my goodnees...this is prob a taste of what the EC Blizzards are like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 RPM model nailed this somewhat looking plume right smack dab into Cook/Lake/DuPage country earlier today... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1846.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblownToo bad I am out of town but enjoy the heavy snowfall. LE is the best if you get under those bands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Too bad I am out of town but enjoy the heavy snowfall. LE is the best if you get under those bandsTony, this is something else! I’ve never seen it snow this hard in Chitown. It’s magical! Now I know what it feels like to live in the snow belts! I’ll take a final measurement when this settles down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 I have awoken with snow on the ground 1/2" to an 1") every morning for the last 5 days. It is gone just after sun up. Just had a heavy snow shower move through and put down 1/4" to 1/2". It melted within 10 minutes of the sun popping out. Wash Rinse Repeat. Annoying weather pattern here in Michigan. Lousy Smarch weather. Not sure if you "typo'd" on the Smarch or intended, lol but either way I love it and thanks for backing up my other posts wrt how truly annoying this tweener pattern's been, at least for SWMI. There's been some decent stuff to our N and/or E These are the most incredible snow fall rates I have seen in my life! Huge dendrites, wind, 1 block visibility, my goodnees...this is prob a taste of what the EC Blizzards are like. Just measured 1.5” in less than 30 min! Epic snow fall right now. #mindblown 'grats over there buddy! This time of year, gotta go dynamic or go home as they say.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Radar snap shot basically shows what I'm experiencing ATM...blob of yellow for the last 30 min or so... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180313.1902.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 2.5” and counting...not letting up, with another squall approaching from the North...amazing what nature can do! If you were to take a napski about an hour ago, you would wake up thinking you warped in time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 2.5” and counting...not letting up, with another squall approaching from the North...amazing what nature can do! If you were to take a napski about an hour ago, you would wake up thinking you warped in time! What you talkin' bout?? Blue sky and sunshine here in St. Joe...#rolereversalinprogress 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 What you talkin' bout?? Blue sky and sunshine here in St. Joe...#rolereversalinprogress Might actually pick up 3" from this squall in the span of 1 hour...hands down, one of the best snow squall events that I'll never forget. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 13, 2018 Report Share Posted March 13, 2018 Might actually pick up 3" from this squall in the span of 1 hour...hands down, one of the best snow squall events that I'll never forget.March LE at its finest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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