Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

[gosaints]

Actually, I think I have a shot at those accumulations. My lows drop tonight to near freezing. Tbh, I would not be surprised if precipitation starts off as snow and ends as snow IMBY. Once this system starts moving east, it will quickly intensify. I am expecting watches to be posted in the am hour (4am discussion). It will be a fun storm to watch, no matter what the outcome will be. Lots of changes can still occur and I end up with nothing. IMHO, this is looking like a raging snowstorm for some. The question is, who gets in on the fun. The more east you are, the better you stand.

love your optimism but you are gonna have to beat the models. There isn't a model that supports those amounts.

 

I hope you start as snow... Hrrr has about 5 hours of rain for u

[Money]

If niko gets a foot of snow from this system I’ll never post here again

[gosaints]

If niko gets a foot of snow from this system I’ll never post here again

NY state on the other hand. could be epic there

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM with 4 feet in eastern New York State.

[Niko]

http://i66.tinypic.com/15frqra.png

[Niko]

From a mostly rain event to a crippling snowstorm/blizzard. It can go either way. Very strong -NAO currently. It's a wait and see situation on how all this will evolve. As I said, some folks are going to get buried.

[Minny_Weather]

If niko gets a foot of snow from this system I’ll never post here again

 

Help, the irony is killing me.

[Hawkeye]

It appears Cedar Rapids won't see a drop of rain from this system.  The northernmost band is setting up through Iowa City.

[Money]

 

Help, the irony is killing me.

Lol if you think I was serious

[Tom]

Its been a rather heavy rainfall over the last few hours as I sit underneath the defo band of this system.  Raw, wet, chilly and blustery day as March opens up like lion.  Where were these dynamic systems in the winter months???

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Despite the lower snow ratios, model guidance
is in fairly good agreement with overall QPF amounts, which will
range from 0.25-0.75 of an inch I-69 corridor north, with a swath of
1-1.5 inches from the M-59 corridor south. The bulk of the QPF will
be spent on rain, especially for southern locations, but there will
still be plenty to work with for moderate to heavy snowfall
accumulations.

Latest thinking is for 5-9 inches of snow in Livingston and Oakland
counties, perhaps reaching into portions of southern Shiawassee and
Genesee counties or northern Washtenaw and Wayne counties. Elsewhere
in the advisory area, 3-6 inches is in play. Will need to closely
monitor hi-res guidance through the morning though, as there are
signals for even heavier QPF amounts (e.g. RAP in excess of 1.5
inches), which could lead to significantly higher totals than
currently forecast. There remains uncertainty in these snow totals,
and they may still be refined as mesoscale feature placement is
better defined. Regardless, accumulating snowfall that will impact
the evening commute will occur, with the potential for significant
amounts somewhere in the vicinity of the M-59 corridor. Further
expansion of the warning may be needed later today depending on the
mesoscale factors mentioned above.

[Niko]

Detroit could be in for a very rough commute later this afternoon. Some outputs are showing snowfall rates at a potential 1.5-2” per hour . This is going to be one raging snowstorm for SEMI. DTW has a chance to exceed 60" this Winter if all goes as plan.

[gosaints]

 

Detroit could be in for a very rough commute later this afternoon. Some outputs are showing snowfall rates at a potential 1.5-2” per hour . This is going to be one raging snowstorm for SEMI. DTW has a chance to exceed 60" this Winter if all goes as plan.

 

Whats your final call for macomb??

[westMJim]

Whats your final call for macomb??

Oakland and Livingston counties are higher in elevation than Machomb county. But Machomb is further east so my guess is that Machomb county will be near the 5-9 inch range. Not sure where in Machomb county Niko is. 

[westMJim]

At this time radar shows heavy rain to the south of Grand Rapids moving to the north. At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 36° and a cold NE wind.

[Niko]

Whats your final call for macomb??

I am thinking 5-10" w locally higher amounts for MBY are possible and numbers will be adjusted later this afternoon. So far, they have me near the 5-9inch range. We will see how all of this plays out.

[Niko]

At this time radar shows heavy rain to the south of Grand Rapids moving to the north. At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 36° and a cold NE wind.

Same here. Cloudy and a cold Wind blowing. Temps are at 34F.

[Niko]

The 12z NAM crushes DTW and shows a solid 10" from Ann Arbor to Detroit.

[gosaints]

The 12z NAM crushes DTW and shows a solid 10" from Ann Arbor to Detroit.

Really riding the edge in macomb

[gosaints]

Detroit temp held steady last hour at 35

[FV-Mike]

Crazy Radar out of Detroit

[Niko]

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

 

All snow for nearly everyone currently (MBY included)

[gosaints]

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

 

All snow for nearly everyone currently (MBY included)

How much you got?? Visibility?

[westMJim]

How much you got?? Visibility?

Here are some locations north and west of Detroit 

Howell, Livingston County

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KOZW

Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal 

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KARB

 

Troy, Oakland/Troy

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KARB

[westMJim]

Here at my  house it is just cloudy with a temperature of 38°

[gosaints]

Here are some locations north and west of Detroit 

Howell, Livingston County

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KOZW

Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal 

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KARB

 

Troy, Oakland/Troy

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KARB

Thanks.. fun to watch 

[jaster220]

How much you got?? Visibility?

 

Just RN in St. Joe along the shores of Lk. Mich, but Marshall hit 32F just b4 noon and now reporting snow with vis down to 3/4 surf mile. WRF likes mby for 8+ 

[jaster220]

Winterstorm "Niko" hits from DTW right on east to NYC!!

 

As usual, GRR's snow map is conservative (especially when an event misses their backyard) vs IWX's map:

 

 

[Niko]

How much you got?? Visibility?

Not that bad..just light snow currently.

[Niko]

Winterstorm "Niko" hits from DTW right on east to NYC!!

 

As usual, GRR's snow map is conservative (especially when an event misses their backyard) vs IWX's map:

 

20180301 GRR Snow-cast for Lwr MI Thur pm.png

 

20180301 IWX Snow-cast for Lwr MI Thur pm.png

Its been upped now to 8-12 inches.

[jaster220]

Was wrong, it's the ARW liking mby for 8+ in Marshall

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030100&fh=48

[jaster220]

Jackson via web-cam:

 

https://jtv.tv/sky-cam/

[jaster220]

Near Jackson airport from SMI poster: 

 

College cancelled my girl's scheduled finals this evening too

 

Just starting there, but massive flakes:

 

[jaster220]

http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/jawdown.gif  40dbz incoming??

 

[jaster220]

The elusive +SN wording in the grid back home:

 

[jaster220]

Its been upped now to 8-12 inches.

 

TWC again? Macomb is not in the WSWarning..even the 11:27 update on the warning still had 5-9+ 

[gosaints]

TWC again? Macomb is not in the WSWarning..even the 11:27 update on the warning still had 5-9+

Point and click for Macomb is 2 today. 3 tonight.

[Niko]

TWC again? Macomb is not in the WSWarning..even the 11:27 update on the warning still had 5-9+ 

Kinda weird if you think about it. That 8-12 makes no sense, but we will see.

 

Btw: how much for your area?

 

Also, its funny how some care for Macomb, MI so much today . Beware, a lot of haters on here today because we are getting the storm and not others. It clearly shows. :lol:

[gosaints]

Kinda weird if you think about it. That 8-12 makes no sense, but we will see.

 

Btw: how much for your area?

 

Also, its funny how some care for Macomb, MI so much today . Beware, a lot of haters on here today because we are getting the storm and not others. It clearly shows. :lol:

Haters gonna hate.  Fun storm to watch.  Just trying to get some accurate representations of conditions.

[gosaints]

Latest HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018030117/014/snku_acc.us_mw.png