March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The irony is I’m bummed about missing the best weather in several months back home. But it looks like we may get some snow at my place when I get back...

 

High unlikely... GFS has been in carrot mode for 2-3 weeks.  

 

When the ECMWF comes on board then maybe.  

 

I would have been seriously pissed if I missed this weather.  

[TT-SEA]

65 at SEA at 11 a.m.

[Front Ranger]

65 at SEA at 11 a.m.

 

Crazy. Assuming the high clouds don't thicken up too fast, the record of 68 from 1998 seems well within reach.

 

PDX's record today is a much more attainable 70, which they should hit...despite only being at 62 right now.

[TT-SEA]

For our Iowa friend... the new 12Z ECMWF only shows precip around Whistler late tomorrow afternoon and into Wednesday and that is just light precip and then its dry and maybe even sunny again by Thursday.    Also shows sunny weather on Friday.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF cuts off the low next week so far offshore that it allows a system to come in from the north on day 9.  

 

My guess is that it will be a ULL pattern as shown but that the ULL offshore will end up a little closer to the coast... accounting for its bias to push ULLs too far to the south and west.  

 

People like to throw out the ECMWF whenever it shows a ULL, but the reality is often that it just ends up farther to the north and east most of the time.   

 

Now those who throw out the ECMWF will be cheering for its ULL bias.  

 

If it does work out... its likely to be a decent shot of cold air behind the system on day 9.   There is even a little snow in the foothills north of Seattle next Wednesday on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder how those GFS ensembles look

[TT-SEA]

Wonder how those GFS ensembles look

 

Irrelevant lately.

 

They always show amazing cold.  

[TT-SEA]

68 at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Irrelevant lately.

 

They always show amazing cold.

Obviously wasn’t asking you

[Phil]

For me, it's summer mornings. They are so clear and quiet, and it's just warm enough to be outside and be comfortable. And I love the sound of sprinklers. Summers are almost perfect in the PNW. Thankfully, we don't deal with humidity out here the way you guys do on the east coast.

It was amazing when I was out there last July. It was actually somewhat cool/crisp in the morning, and the evenings were right around room temperature with no humidity to speak of. And the air smelled so clean. Also very few bugs compared to here.

 

Easily the most amazing summer weather I’ve ever experienced. It felt like early/mid October does here, except the days were long enough that it felt like summer.

[bainbridgekid]

68 at SEA.

64 in Everett. Yesterday they were 52 at this time.

 

70-71 at SEA seems like a good bet. 72 if the high clouds can hold off, but they seem to already be streaming in a bit.

[Phil]

I wonder if (after the late March troughing) there is one final round of ridging/warmth in early April. I’m starting to think there will be one more retrograde/offshore dig around that time..a bunch of CCKWs are breaking off the IO convection and propagating across the Indo-Pacific, but the lower frequency forcing is moving pretty slowly that way. Should be brief, but the signal is there.

 

Then, almost all of the viable QBO/ENSO analogs flip into a 2012-ish pattern (cold PNW, warm everywhere else) as we move into mid/late April. This regime could persist for awhile thereafter depending on how strong the intraseasonal forcings are.

[Phil]

Have I reiterated just how much I hate NC now? What the bloody f**k is going on this year?

 

(Sorry Eric..no love lost, but you suck. ).

 

[TT-SEA]

71 at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if (after the late March troughing) there is one final round of ridging/warmth in early April. I’m starting to think there will be one more retrograde/offshore dig around that time..a bunch of CCKWs are breaking off the IO convection and propagating across the Indo-Pacific, but the lower frequency forcing is moving pretty slowly that way. Should be brief, but the signal is there.

 

Then, almost all of the viable QBO/ENSO analogs flip into a 2012-ish pattern (cold PNW, warm everywhere else) as we move into mid/late April. This regime could persist for awhile thereafter depending on how strong the intraseasonal forcings are.

 

Summer is over in early April?

 

Darn.   One last hurrah!  

 

BTW - 2012 was a spectacular summer here once it going.  

[TT-SEA]

It was amazing when I was out there last July. It was actually somewhat cool/crisp in the morning, and the evenings were right around room temperature with no humidity to speak of. And the air smelled so clean. Also very few bugs compared to here.

 

Easily the most amazing summer weather I’ve ever experienced. It felt like early/mid October does here, except the days were long enough that it felt like summer.

 

I thought sideways rain and 52 degrees was the was most amazing summer weather you ever experienced on Hippa Island... and with even longer days!  

 

Why can't it be 52 and raining all summer you lamented.   That was summer perfection.   Our 80-degree sunshine must have felt like the Dante's Inferno.  

 

Side note... you have experienced low humidity and 80-degree weather in the summer there.  I even pointed it out to you after you had returned home last year.   

[TT-SEA]

Obviously wasn’t asking you

 

Does not matter who you ask.   The answer is that they always look good.   And always cold.

 

No need to even ask.   

[Phil]

Summer is over in early April?

 

Darn. One last hurrah!

 

BTW - 2012 was a spectacular summer here once it going.

Sorry, I’m only looking at the next ~ 7 weeks with this analysis. I should have clarified that.

 

Of course there will be additional episodes of ridging interspersed throughout 2018 given the typical yin/yang of intraseasonal forcings. Even years like 2011 have periods of ridging inter-mixed.

[Geos]

A toasty 72 in Bothell now. Looks like it's cracking 70 at home now. 

[Deweydog]

Marine seepage really doing its thing around Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA has reached 72... putting today in the top 5 warmest March days in history per Scott Sistek.   Today is also earlier than any of the other days.

 

Some warm summers on this list.  1947 was not that warm... but was consistently nice.   Way better than some of our ugly summers.

 

78° 3/29/04 2)

75° 3/31/87 3)

74° 3/29/94 4)

73° 3/28/94 5)

72° - 3 times 3/30/95 and 3/15-16/47

[bainbridgekid]

72 at SEA!

[Phil]

I thought sideways rain and 52 degrees was the was most amazing summer weather you ever experienced on Hippa Island... and with even longer days!

 

Why can't it be 52 and raining all summer you lamented. That was summer perfection. Our 80-degree sunshine must have felt like the Dante's Inferno.

I still enjoyed it, comparatively speaking. I would take a sideways 52*F mist over 100*F+ heat indices and swarming insects any day, especially since I work a physically demanding job outdoors.

 

Side note... you have experienced low humidity and 80-degree weather in the summer there. I even pointed it out to you after you had returned home last year.

Lol, not really. A few nice days in late August doesn’t even count when they’re surrounded by 78 days with 100*F+ heat indices. Last summer actually had very frequent troughing relative to average, and it didn’t prevent us from racking up 56 days above 90*F, and over 100 days with heat indices at/above 90*F.

 

Until you spend a summer here, don’t lecture me on how “nice” you think it is. There’s a reason everybody leaves DC during July/August (even congress). It sucks.

[TT-SEA]

I still enjoyed it, comparatively speaking. I would take a sideways 52*F mist over 100*F+ heat indices and swarming insects any day, especially since I work a physically demanding job outdoors.

 

 

Lol, not really. A few nice days in late August doesn’t even count when they’re surrounded by 78 days with 100*F+ heat indices. Last summer actually had very frequent troughing relative to average, and it didn’t prevent us from racking up 56 days above 90*F, and over 100 days with heat indices at/above 90*F.

 

Until you spend a summer here, don’t lecture me on how “nice” you think it is. There’s a reason everybody leaves DC during July/August (even congress). It sucks.

 

 

I understand about DC.

 

The problem with your take on 52-degree sideways rain and 100-degree heat and humidity is that you completely ignore a wide swath of perfect weather in between.

 

Your choice is based on two generally miserable scenarios for summer.   I don't really care which one is less miserable.   I am glad we usually stay right in middle of those two extremes for most of summer.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SEA has reached 72... putting today in the top 5 warmest March days in history per Scott Sistek.   Today is also earlier than any of the other days.

 

Some warm summers on this list.  1947 was not that warm... but was consistently nice.   Way better than some of our ugly summers.

 

78° 3/29/04 2)

75° 3/31/87 3)

74° 3/29/94 4)

73° 3/28/94 5)

72° - 3 times 3/30/95 and 3/15-16/47

 

That March 15-17, 1947 event really sets the standard for SEA. Three straight 70+ highs, and there are only 2 (well now 3) 70+ days on record earlier.

 

Interesting how none of those years were -ENSO like 2018.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Can someone provide me a list of Tim-approved weather opinions? Apparently I’m in serious violation of this strict code of conduct.

[Geos]

Still a good amount of sunshine out there.

 

[Geos]

What on mother earth are you talking about?

 

Wasn’t I just lamenting on how perfect I thought the weather was while visiting last July? I think you’re just trying to trigger me.

 

 

God forbid I have my own opinions. Right?

 

Having experienced both, I happen to believe that cool drizzle is less “miserable” than swamp weather. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t prefer sunny 75*F days with low humidity over both scenarios, but it does mean I would prefer drizzle over a steamy blast furnace.

 

Why you seem to think my opinion is a sin, I’m not sure.

 

I'd side with you on the cool drizzle is less miserable than a steamy blast furnace. Don't miss that at all. 

[Phil]

Interesting how none of those years were -ENSO like 2018.

Runaway runways?

[Phil]

I'd side with you on the cool drizzle is less miserable than a steamy blast furnace. Don't miss that at all.

You just made Tim’s list. Repent!

 

It really is brutal. Especially when it lasts 4+ months every year, guaranteed.

[Guest Sounder]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see SEA hit 75 today. Beautiful day out there.

[Guest Sounder]

I'd side with you on the cool drizzle is less miserable than a steamy blast furnace. Don't miss that at all. 

Maybe if you're poor and don't have air conditioning. I'll take 95 and sunny over 40 degree drizzle any day.

[Front Ranger]

Can someone provide me a list of Tim-approved weather opinions? Apparently I’m in serious violation of this strict code of conduct.

 

Sunshine - always good, MUST be celebrated

Snow - good, as long as it's not too sloppy and falls before February

Clouds - evil, except when they create a photo-worthy sunset/sunrise

Rain - pure evil, ruins life

Drought - does not exist in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

You just made Tim’s s**t list. Repent!

 

It really is terrible. Especially when it lasts 4+ months every year, guaranteed.

I agreed with you about DC.

 

I already know we have generally awesome summer weather. Your choice between too cold or too hot is fun to discuss but sort of irrelevant.

 

Speaking for myself... I would not want Hippa Island or DC weather in the summer.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe if you're poor and don't have air conditioning. I'll take 95 and sunny over 40 degree drizzle any day.

Me too. Every. Single. Time.

[weatherfan2012]

Have I reiterated just how much I hate NC now? What the bloody f**k is going on this year?

(Sorry Eric..no love lost, but you suck. ).

one word la niña along with a over all weak lame Pacific jet stream and weak Stj and to much northern stream this the storms are eather suppressed or to far north.give us a simple Stj storm any day over these phasing events those it makes you wonder how the hack we did so well with the January 25th 2000 storm doing a moderate niña winter.

[Front Ranger]

Maybe if you're poor and don't have air conditioning. I'll take 95 and sunny over 40 degree drizzle any day.

 

If you're in a climate-controlled space, why does the weather outside matter at all?

[TT-SEA]

Sunshine - always good, MUST be celebrated

Snow - good, as long as it's not too sloppy and falls before February

Clouds - evil, except when they create a photo-worthy sunset/sunrise

Rain - pure evil, ruins life

Drought - does not exist in the PNW

Close!

 

Sun is almost always welcome in this climate.

 

I don't mind rain at all... just excessive rain. Which happens sometimes here.

 

Drought does exist in the PNW. But you would think based on some posts on here that its always life and death in the PNW... endless drought no matter how much it rains and snows.

[Geos]

Maybe if you're poor and don't have air conditioning. I'll take 95 and sunny over 40 degree drizzle any day.

 

I like spending a lot of time outside, so I like something in between the immediate Pacific Coast weather and DC. Even though last summer was extremely dry, smoky at times, and really warm - it was better than typical DC/Southeast summer weather.