St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow, followed by a winter storm. Gotta love March in the Midwest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z NAM nuclear run. MPX wisely said in their afternoon disco that they’re tossing that garbage. Will be interesting to see how this turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nam drunk.. 3km not nearly as drunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 What's the latest for this area...mkx seems to think it will snow but not accumulate too much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rolls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rollsYou seem to be in a great spot... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 00z 3k nam has 0.30-0.50" precip in the form of snow here. I'm going to take the under on that. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 GEM going ham too. This is entertaining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.10:1 ratios are way too high in this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 10:1 ratios are way too high in thisYup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Pivotal finally updated. Here’s the Kuchera guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point.Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc Temps look to be around freezing for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 One thing is a given in this. Whatever falls is going to be absolute concrete. Moving it is going to be a pain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Good luck to Minnesotans with this thing. Maybe we get a few flakes over her in CornLand. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 For stats sake, I'd love to get a tenth of an inch from this so at least we're guaranteed to have a last snowfall in March at the earliest. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 The 1st Blizzard of March is official! Parts of SD and into extreme N NE are under Blizzard Warnings this morning. SD is going to get walloped...wind gusts up to 60mph and up to 18" of snow is a winner in my book... Meantime, the north side of MSP is locked for another beauty... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc Temps look to be around freezing for thisLA crosse going 6-8 where the best band sets up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 4in here according to nws Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower.How much snow do you have OTG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 How much snow do you have OTG?We made it up to the mid 40s yesterday and that did some damage. I have 4-5” OTG. The official depth at the airport is 5”. MPX also talking gusts to 40mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are power outages with the heavy concrete snow. This should be pretty wild, regardless of how much snow actually accumulates. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yesterday's SPC outlook for today. Today's SPC outlook for today. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 The 3k NAM seems to have a better handle on this than the regular NAM. In Iowa rain looks to change over to snow between 12-3pm tomorrow. That’s bad news for accumulation as this time of year especially you want that changeover happening at night. I think timing alone will limit accums in Iowa. If it were 3 hours slower then the Mississippi River corridor from DBQ on north would be in a better spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Rgem blasts the metro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Heavy pinger storm at the moment. Accumulating on the driveway. No mention of frozen precip today so there’s that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Rgem with 15-16 for msp Gfs with 6-8 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030412&fh=54&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Rgem with 15-16 for msp Gfs with 6-8 Ihttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030412&fh=54&r=us_mw&dpdt=I would ride somewhere in between there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Its looking like a 3-6" event here. Lehs will be a wild card, although it doesn't look very impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I would ride somewhere in between there.Yeah those big totals rarely verify. I’d say somewhere between the two but we’re definitely in short term model timeframe. Those are gonna pick up on the convection elements better than the globals, and those are generally spitting out higher totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yeah those big totals rarely verify. I’d say somewhere between the two but we’re definitely in short term model timeframe. Those are gonna pick up on the convection elements better than the globals, and those are generally spitting out higher totals.Go small 4-7 is a good call for your area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Go small 4-7 is a good call for your areaDo u ever go big? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I’m also going smallish. 5-8 is my call. For MSP Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Stormgeek gonna go double digits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Good calls. Start small and if we get more it’s just bonus money. 4-8” would cause enough problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Do u ever go big?If this was dec or Jan it would be 10+ A lot going against big amounts 1. Marginal temps 2. Most of the snow looks to fall during the day which is never good for this time of the year.3. Some of the snow on the ground will probably be melting with more daylight/marginal temps etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Here’s the heaviest rates .5-6 qpf for msp http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_003h&rh=2018030412&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt= This is during the 18z-21z timeframe so in the middle of the aft Here are the temps at 21z http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2018030412&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt= 31-33 range. Obv the heaviest rates might help it accumulate some but you’re gonna lose some of that QPF to warmer ground temps etc Now it looks like temps cool some more as the night goes on http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2018030412&fh=39&r=us_mw&dpdt= 29-30 range but most of the heavier precip already moved east So my call: 3-4 during the afternoon 2-3 for the rest of the storm Total: 5-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so farYa I am banking on the gfs being slightly Warm up there which is a known bias. But could easily go either way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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