3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Money]

If the NW/strong solutions verify this will catch a lot of people off-guard 

[East Dubzz]

Still not buying it...but let's see what the GFS says!

[james1976]

this is way dif from other models. what is going to happen?!

[Geos]

My god the 0Z NAM... Near 5 inches per hour a one point lol. its probably off it's rocker, but what a run...

 

Probably.

 

Like Dominic says it is goes any further north there will be mixing issues. Really close at 800mb already.

 

[East Dubzz]

If the NW/strong solutions verify this will catch a lot of people off-guard 

No doubt about that. Just showed 12+" for Chicago and their not even under a watch. Would probably not be a good situation..

[Iowawx]

I can't see Chicago getting 14 inches from this. NAM is likely overdoing it somewhat.  Don't tell me I get an inch here and Chicago gets 16.......

[Money]

16-18 showing up for Chicago at HR 39

[Scott26]

watch the GFS go south of the 18Z

[East Dubzz]

watch the GFS go south of the 18Z

Isn't that what we should expect?

[DominicR]

Yes a hot run. Smacked with intial band and then deformation band. You bet to some lake enhancement comes into play if this happens.

[Money]

Not that it means much, but RAP/NAM identical through HR 18 with each other. RAP is about .5 mb stronger or so

[Tom]

Like I said, during cycle 1 & 2 the storm cut through N IL but I don't see it going much farther north due to the PV up in Canada.  However, if GFS comes in much farther NW then we may have a problem here in N IL.  I think if tonight's 00z run from the NAM comes true, any mixing problems from I-80 on north will be overcome from the dynamics of this system and quickly change over to snow.

[DominicR]

Gonna be alot of cars piling up like a cup of vanilla and rasins on lakeshore drive if this verifies...

 

[james1976]

uhhhh.....nice donut hole for my area.

[DominicR]

Detroit 2 feet!

[Scott26]

Isn't that what we should expect?

of the 18Z GFS I meant...

[Tom]

Money, I'd take half the totals the NAM is showing right now and be happy!  BTW, from the warmth over the weekend, today and even tomorrow I'd expect Lake Michigan to open up a lot more and create more open waters for LehS and backside LES.

[Geos]

Yes a hot run. Smacked with intial band and then deformation band. You bet to some lake enhancement comes into play if this happens.

 

Delta Ts have to be at least 11°C. Right now I'm not seeing that. Maybe 8°C.

[Money]

Detroit 2 feet!

 

and still snowing lol

[DominicR]

Let's break the all time record says the NAM Chicago!!!!!!!!

[Tom]

Dom, this would be the most severe winter storm this year and we can probably reach 1st place if this storm verifies like the NAM!  Gotta say, NAM did a great job with the NYE storm and Jan 4-5th storm.

[Money]

Where's the low currently? 

[DominicR]

Ah now the GFS.

[DominicR]

Where's the low currently? 

 

Siberia.

[Geos]

Siberia.

 

Lol, it's over the Pacific right?

[Niko]

Gonna be alot of cars piling up like a cup of vanilla and rasins on lakeshore drive if this verifies...

That is a 18"+ storm for me....

 

Lets go NAM...Lets go NAM........Nam saids, not only are we gonna break the record, but we are going to SMASHED the record big time with feet of snow.

[DominicR]

That is a 18"+ storm for me....

 

Let's make it 30 inches next run.

[Geos]

I guess were too close for the DGEX right!?

[DominicR]

I can't imagine what 4k NAM will look like. Caplain micro earlier was general 1-3 inches.

[Money]

Lol, it's over the Pacific right?

 

nah its on land somewhere lol

[DominicR]

So sexy!!!!!!!

[East Dubzz]

Hey guys, just wanna let you know, it's pretty warm outside right now...

 

[The Snowman]

0z NAM is insane.

[Tom]

There are going to be a lot of convective bands with Thundersnow in this system...

[Iowawx]

 There is still time for this to go South and no way Chicago gets 16-18 inches. 

[Scott26]

Blizzard...

 

[Geos]

What are the chances it can gain support?

 

I just hope I can keep my dental appointment that morning.

[6789]

Lol I laughed so hard East Dubzz! Anyways, I'm not going to get to excited about this storm yet! But, oh my god! If this verified and we broke the record I would s**t myself! Lol seems ridiculous! But, I'm worried about mixing issues, my heart would be a little crushed if this went to far north and we got rain....

[james1976]

whats the chance of this going another 100 miles NW? LOL!

[MKEstorm]

Still not buying it...but let's see what the GFS says!

 

Same here! But as Tom said, this storm has got the fuel it needs to potentially be be big! A classic battle of the seasons!