St Paul Storm Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 If there is one thing you should not do, it is that. Talking up totals like that never seems to end well with the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing coming onto the table. We shall see.He’s one of the biggest anti-snow weenies there is. That makes his tone so interesting here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 The general trend this morning is to have the upper low feel a bit more northeastward pull from the flow up north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Ukie says you should buy a canoe either wayYeah 4+ qpf on all the models through this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 NWS Hastings update- 11:10 AM: yes they are using the word blizzard. Huh? Looking ahead, models are still focusing on winter weather makinga return Friday into Friday night with rain changing to snow.We`ll be looking at the details closely with the afternoon updateabsorbing all of the new model info, but we are becomingincreasingly concerned with the strong winds, combined with snowpotential of a few inches possible. Models are hinting at nearblizzard conditions possible across parts of the central Plains.While we do not have any winter weather headlines in effect yet,we`ll be collaborating with other NWS offices through theafternoon and will provide more details with the afternoonforecast package. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 EURO slightly north of the GFS at 48 it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Barely makes any progress east between 48-72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Barely makes any progress east between 48-72 Euro a bit colder over E NE into MN, but overall looks the same...should be an interesting run...this thing just crawls as the Hudson Bay "road block" looks strong as ever... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Barely makes any progress east between 48-72 Yeah it’s stuck in the mud/slush. It just sits there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 HR 96 has a 1000 L in northern IN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 12z Euro creeping blizzard conditions near OMA area...just to the west, meanwhile, C/N NE gets pounded by a Blitz up into SD/MN...epic snowstorm in the works for mid April. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Looks like MSP crush job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Looks like the secondary piece amps up and a defo band swings through N IL into WI on Sun into Mon and produces snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 So much cold rain for so many areas through 90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Looks like the secondary piece amps up and a defo band swings through N IL into WI on Sun into Mon and produces snow.Doesn’t look nearly as impressive as last two runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Doesn’t look nearly as impressive as last two runsActually, it doesn't look like it snows...surface temps suggest upper 20's on Sun into Mon based on weather.us maps.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Actually, it doesn't look like it snows...surface temps suggest upper 20's on Sun into Mon based on weather.us maps....https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018041112/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180416-1200z.html Looks similar to gfs up this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngLittle farther south please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngCraig should be in to turn on his magnet soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Craig should be in to turn on his magnet soonWhere’s geos when we need em Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 So, what was the big difference between today’s run and last nights? Didn’t dig south enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 So, what was the big difference between today’s run and last nights? Didn’t dig south enough?Not that different really synoptically from what I can see. Models are gonna struggle with evolution of the snow shield. I think in the end we see more of a consolidated system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Depends where you live I guess on the differences. Euro with a drastically different solution for Eastern Iowa from just 24 hours ago. And I'm not really that sad about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Depends where you live I guess on the differences. Euro with a drastically different solution for Eastern Iowa from just 24 hours ago. And I'm not really that sad about it. Right there are large differences everywhere sensible weather wise but and 500 and pressure wise the differences are not huge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Snowshoe sits in the jackzone per the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Expect watches to get expanded east this afternoon. I'm interested in seeing what Hastings will do. I'm thinking a lot of their CWA will be put into a watch, crazy for mid April. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Craig should be in to turn on his magnet soonLol very happy needless to say. Each run has been a tad further east and south. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Lol very happy needless to say. Each run has been a tad further east and south. U should be in a warning by morning right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 U should be in a warning by morning right?Totally! I won't feel comfy about anything until Friday late night, this storm is huge and will throw some curveballs. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 U should be in a warning by morning right?You meant ‘complaining by morning’. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Lol Euro now with 5" here. Bet that's what Craig was talking about. I'm not gonna live on one model run showing jacked up numbers for a low-ratio event. Especially since the air temperature 12 hours before the snow starts falling is gonna be 70. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Expect watches to get expanded east this afternoon. I'm interested in seeing what Hastings will do. I'm thinking a lot of their CWA will be put into a watch, crazy for mid April. My thoughts exactly. I am thinking Winter Storm Watch will be issued. Disco coming in the next hour or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 You meant ‘complaining by morning’. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Lol Euro now with 5" here. Bet that's what Craig was talking about. I'm not gonna live on one model run showing jacked up numbers for a low-ratio event. Especially since the air temperature 12 hours before the snow starts falling is gonna be 70. The temperatures before the storm doesn't matter. We've had snow accumulate on the roads on May 1st a few years ago. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 The euro just isn't cutting off the low like it was last run, and especially two runs ago. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 My thoughts exactly. I am thinking Winter Storm Watch will be issued. Disco coming in the next hour or so.Holy cow Central!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NEIssued by National Weather Service OMAHA/VALLEY NE318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 ...POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .An early spring storm will develop Friday into Saturday,bringing a chance of rain changing to snow, with up to a fewinches of snow possible. Northwest winds will increase 25 to 40mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, which could create nearblizzard or whiteout conditions. Travel may eventually beimpacted. NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>076-082>084-120430-/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,St. Libory, Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk,Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney,Grand Island, Aurora, York, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege,Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Near blizzard conditions possible. Winds gusting as highas 50 mph could cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.Significant drifting of the snow is also possible. Total snowaccumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Another shift north on the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 11, 2018 Report Share Posted April 11, 2018 Holy cow Central!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NEIssued by National Weather Service OMAHA/VALLEY NE318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 ...POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .An early spring storm will develop Friday into Saturday,bringing a chance of rain changing to snow, with up to a fewinches of snow possible. Northwest winds will increase 25 to 40mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, which could create nearblizzard or whiteout conditions. Travel may eventually beimpacted. NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>076-082>084-120430-/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,St. Libory, Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk,Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney,Grand Island, Aurora, York, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege,Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Near blizzard conditions possible. Winds gusting as highas 50 mph could cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.Significant drifting of the snow is also possible. Total snowaccumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible.School just ended and my phone is going off. My prediction was correct. I will have to look at information a little closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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