Phil Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Not that it means much at this point, but this is the Weather Channel's outlook for June. The maps for July and August had the PNW painted in with above average as well. Their June outlook seems to stand in contrast to Phil's thoughts of a troughy June. Not sure what the Weather Channel uses to base these long term outlooks on...This ain’t the year for persistence forecasting. I think that’s gonna bust bigly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Big time jet extension on many EPS members after D9. Looks 2016-ish with a little 1980 thrown in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Careful when using that. Not calculated the same way as the official PNA data. Different parameters used for the calculation of the descriptive EOF. We talked about this during the winter, and people attacked me for it. But it’s true.Yeah, there's more to it than just the PNA. I just use it as a general guide along with other parameters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Yeah, there's more to it than just the PNA. I just use it as a general guide along with other parameters.TWC’s seasonal forecast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 TWC’s seasonal forecast?Nope you should know by now I forecasted a rather average June for the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Big changes on the 00Z GFS. Yet despite looking more troughy... it's also much drier than the 12Z run. In fact it's basically dry for everyone for the 3-day weekend. A front is moving in on Monday evening on this run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 August 1981 was between 1977 and 1994. June 1984July 1993August 1986September 1991 Come September both Tim and Jesse will commit seppuku. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 June 1984July 1993August 1986September 1991 Come September both Tim and Jesse will commit seppuku.I’ve lived through 2014-17. 1986 and 1991 ain’t . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Brrrr...down to 49 already! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I’ve lived through 2014-17. 1986 and 1991 ain’t s**t. 1991 still has the 2nd highest average September maximum at PDX. 1974 (COLD PHASE!) surprisingly is still in 1st. Both marks are ripe for a little modern day Modestofied takedown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 FWIW, Brett Anderson's update from 2 days ago. "Signs continue to point toward most of the heat being concentrated across the West into mid-June, while several cool fronts will likely dive into eastern Canada, reducing the risk for any prolonged heat and humidity." https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-clues-to-the-long-range-outlook-through-june/70004988 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 This ain’t the year for persistence forecasting. I think that’s gonna bust bigly. How bigly? Am I gonna need Gore-Tex & thermal underwear? Will there some scintilla of warmth/dryness to remind us that it's still summer? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 The Weather Channel is such a joke. Their 15 day forecasts are no better than the built in apps on our phones that change like the wind, all their videos are clickbait, and they hype up everything so much to the point it makes you cringe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I just got a chance to look at the 00z GFS and it’s pretty awesome. I guess what they say about a watched pot is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I just got a chance to look at the 00z GFS and it’s pretty awesome. I guess what they say about a watched pot is right.I thought that was just for snow events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I thought that was just for snow events.A rain event or a below normal day would be about as momentous as a snow event at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 A rain event or a below normal day would be about as momentous as a snow event at this point.The grass is about to turn brown right now. The ground is super hard and it doesn't look like there's much rain coming up. It never fails to amaze me how fast soil moisture just dissapears in such a moist climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Going to assume it's going to be another bad fire season here in Oregon. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Clear skies last night allowed the temperature to drop to 41 this morning. The clouds have filled in now though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I've measured 0.19" of rain this month. My next driest May is 1.30". With no significant rain in the forecast, I'm curious what the driest May's ever are for Portland, does anyone have any data handy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I've measured 0.19" of rain this month. My next driest May is 1.30". With no significant rain in the forecast, I'm curious what the driest May's ever are for Portland, does anyone have any data handy? 1992 - .101982 - .461994 - .561938 - .572015 - .59 2018 - . 15 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here.I looked it up and I couldn’t find much about any records being set. It appears western Europe is in a pattern very similar to the one we are stuck in though, with split flow and meandering cutoff lows. And it is a direct indicator that our summer will be hot, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Interesting changes on recent runs. The next week is now looking dry but cooler...tomorrow could be the only day well into the 80s down here, with temperatures back to seasonal levels by late week into the weekend. The manner in which the cutoff low phases does seem to open the door for a pattern change, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Interesting changes on recent runs. The next week is now looking dry but cooler...tomorrow could be the only day well into the 80s down here, with temperatures back to seasonal levels by late week into the weekend. The manner in which the cutoff low phases does seem to open the door for a pattern change, though. The fantasy range of the 06Z GFS looks like something you drew up! I wouldn't mind seeing it verify rather than the most recent CPC maps though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here.Yeah, both are related to that +NAO/vortex positioning. Though it will be weakening going forward. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.I'm so torn over whether to make fun of this. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I'm so torn over whether to make fun of this. I just thought it was the perfect mix of seasonal variety. Likely will be the complete opposite. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Southern California says good morning to the Pacific Northwest from the Mt. Wilson Observatory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Southern California says good morning to the Pacific Northwest from the Mt. Wilson Observatory. towercamMay21.jpgLooks familiar! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here. Believe it or not I haven't checked out the CFS monthlies in about 6 months. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 I just thought it was the perfect mix of seasonal variety. Likely will be the complete opposite.Hot summer/mild winter is always the most likely outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.Expect a cold summer and a torchy December and January, then. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Haha. It'll probably end up the opposite! LOL! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Expect a cold summer and a torchy December and January, then.Our December was torchy here. So torchy in fact that you got smoke from our fires. Southern California is almost like the Southern Hemisphere in terms of their warmest and coldest times of the year. Normally the beaches average warmer in January than June. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Wow... 12Z GFS is even more progressive. The models are really playing catch up. The cut off low late this week has moved east about 1,000 miles over the last few days of model runs. It was supposed to end up over us by maybe Sunday... now its likely going to go through SoCal and Arizona and not come north at all. Of course this is all being driven by a much deeper and more active northerly flow. Here was the 00Z GFS on Saturday evening for this coming Saturday... And now the new 12Z GFS for the same time... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Boo! I want my Benderstorms! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Our December was torchy here. So torchy in fact that you got smoke from our fires. Southern California is almost like the Southern Hemisphere in terms of their warmest and coldest times of the year. Normally the beaches average warmer in January than June. What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Huge improvements for the Memorial Day weekend on the 12Z GFS as a result of the changes. Sunday and Monday now look gorgeous. Might be cancelling those reservations yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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