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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

Anti Marine Layer

By Anti Marine Layer
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by The Ms. Anthrop,

Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts. 

insta pin. glorious cloud pics!

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Posted by Gradient Keeper,

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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Posted by ajreich,

NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
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Posted by BLI snowman,

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.
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Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm a

OysterPrintout
OysterPrintout

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.   

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Saw this posted on social media. 

Posted Images

Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will be in 7 soon and the SSW has come in two phases.  You can see the second phase just starting to kick in at the end of the loop.  this is the phase where the wind reversal will happen.

temp10anim.gif

Thanks, Jim. I'd say this ups the ante significantly for late Winter cold/snow.

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 19 minutes

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umadbro Experienced

umadbro

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

EC186EAB-4E47-4D9F-BE54-81B5F7CB3AB0.gif

Don’t tell that to Jim. He will spend an entire post telling you you’re stupid for not believing in him. It’s Jim’s world and we’re all just living in it.

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https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f

my personal weather station

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS full run. A lot of potential ahead for a swift return from Old Man Winter!

floop-gefsens-2023021300.500h_anom-mean.na(1).gif

It would be nice if it continued after I get back from my trip!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Timing ahead of GEFS.image.thumb.png.b52b878f613210b0be0e1d61fe364ab8.pngimage.thumb.png.8fe49645f41d12f2591430e7dbefe90d.png

Love how similar they are.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Do people still doubt the power of MJO zone 7?  I think the late Nov / early December cold wave was from that also.

This seems too simplistic.   The pattern resulting from different MJO phases varies by month and by ENSO.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This seems too simplistic.   The pattern resulting from different MJO phases varies by month and by ENSO.  

True, but it's a very good tool.  I do know in general 7 is the best bet for cold in the NW without taking anything else into account.  Somebody posted some info a while back showing the MJO phases during our most recent Arctic outbreaks, and over half had the MJO in 7 or 3.  The little cold snap late last month was 3.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Do people still doubt the power of MJO zone 7?  I think the late Nov / early December cold wave was from that also.

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This seems too simplistic.   The pattern resulting from different MJO phases varies by month and by ENSO.  

Yeah once u isolate the MJO/CCKW component from the low pass tendency it’s more of a phase 7/8/1 transit by late month.

Biggest difference going forward is no strat PV to augment the TPV and a more active MJO/intraseasonal cycle in general due to accelerating BDC in response to SSW.

So gradually more and more arctic cold should become displaced from the pole and bleed into the CONUS and Southern Canada as well.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Interesting we now have +SPMM/-NPMM and EPAC warming. Whereas it has been the -SPMM that has dominated this -ENSO cycle.

54FD6F15-A573-4F69-A8E0-11844DB6A84C.png

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

06z NAM less snowy for WW, more snowy for the WV.

D54DA050-1C39-4197-8588-97F9FD48F7D0.png

It's going to be watch the radar tomorrow night.  There will be surprises as always.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting we now have +SPMM/-NPMM and EPAC warming. Whereas it has been the -SPMM that has dominated this -ENSO cycle.

54FD6F15-A573-4F69-A8E0-11844DB6A84C.png

Not sure what the SPMM and NPMM are.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure what the SPMM and NPMM are.

North/South Pacific Meridional Mode(s).

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Well this isn't promising for PDX/Willamette Valley, but could be good news for Western Washington.

The early morning discussion says the weak low for tonight is trending further north and the PDX NWS folks are now going with the lower end of guidance in terms of snowfall. South wind is NOT the friend of Cold and SNOW! Poops!

May be an image of text

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well this isn't promising for PDX/Willamette Valley, but could be good news for Western Washington.

The early morning discussion says the weak low for tonight is trending further north and the PDX NWS folks are now going with the lower end of guidance in terms of snowfall. South wind is NOT the friend of Cold and SNOW! Poops!

May be an image of text

 

Too bad, but having nws not on board is always a GOOD sign. Folks above 500’ should do well, maybe even better than previously expected as this thing is looking MOIST. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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