August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Looks like about 87 for the high today. AQ index at 262 near here currently. Ash has stopped falling for the time being. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

They also tied the record for annual 90+ days today (2015). I figured you’d be squeeee’ing your face off.

I lost track a while ago but that's great news we tied the record. It all comes down to tomorrow if we set a new record or not.

[TT-SEA]

So much better at Lake Chelan now... glad it worked out.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

89 for a high today. Just missed our 7th 90+ day of the summer. We had I think 12 last year and around 15 in 2015. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Finally up and able to post. 48 hours in surgery and recovery but I am sitting in the bed finally able to catch up. Thanks Andrew for posting that 1985 data for KEUG. What did I miss? Is Jim back?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

89 for a high today. Just missed our 7th 90+ day of the summer. We had I think 12 last year and around 15 in 2015. 

 

Though we've had about 15 days that were 88-89.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally up and able to post. 48 hours in surgery and recovery but I am sitting in the bed finally able to catch up. Thanks Andrew for posting that 1985 data for KEUG. What did I miss? Is Jim back?

 

Glad to have you back friend. 

 

[MossMan]

Glad to have you back friend.

 

[Geos]

Another smoke plume moving in.

 

[TT-SEA]

Another smoke plume moving in.

 

vis (2).jpg

Tomorrow is going to be horrible with the wind dying and then turning weakly onshore.

[MossMan]

Tomorrow is going to be horrible with the wind dying and then turning weakly onshore.

Can’t imagine it being worse than today...argh.

[WeatherArchive]

You always say that, but many of us make wishcasts all the time and crash/burn. Just roll with it. Despite all the acronyms and heady bullshit, you're just pissing into the wind and hoping for the best like the rest of us.

 

#augusticebox

The thing is he treats the west coast as if it's the east coast where NW flow means cold air from the Great Lakes bringing clippers and easier setups for Artic Air.

[WeatherArchive]

As far as i know Tim has never had a meltdown and left the forum. Tim is really the only person who get's on Jim. Whereas almost everyone, myself included, get on Tim. I like Jim, but learned years ago his forecasts are mere wishcasts. 

His forecasts have been valid down here every year much to my disappointment.  

[WeatherArchive]

This winter is gonna suck. IT'S A LOCK.

Considering we are naturally in a warming period yeah odds are always going to be high it's going to be sucktacular if your wanting something from a much  cooler earth.  Even if we were to start cooling off today (on a global scale) it will be several years before we reach the point of the 1980s in terms of telecommunications with the oceans which drive our jet stream that drives the weather and changes large scale flows.  

[Phil]

The thing is he treats the west coast as if it's the east coast where NW flow means cold air from the Great Lakes bringing clippers and easier setups for Artic Air.

 

Can you provide an example of me doing this?

[Phil]

Considering we are naturally in a warming period yeah odds are always going to be high it's going to be sucktacular if your wanting something from a much cooler earth. Even if we were to start cooling off today (on a global scale) it will be several years before we reach the point of the 1980s in terms of telecommunications with the oceans which drive our jet stream that drives the weather and changes large scale flows.

Gobbledygook.

[Geos]

Can’t imagine it being worse than today...argh.

Got a feeling we'll be like Chelan has been tomorrow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Finally up and able to post. 48 hours in surgery and recovery but I am sitting in the bed finally able to catch up. Thanks Andrew for posting that 1985 data for KEUG. What did I miss? Is Jim back?

Glad to see you're doing good again and able to post. I've been keeping track of your twitter and saw your new post today. Love the Anthony Davis Kentucky jersey you got, it's kick a**!

 

Today PDX tied 2015 for the number of 90+ degree highs in a year. Tomorrow they can break the record. Weather wise it looks like we're headed into a cooler than normal weather pattern to end the month with much needed rain. Here is what the 12z EURO showed today for PDX.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Took my youngest to the park in Silverton this evening., Can't believe how dry it is. Looks like scorched earth...

[Phil]

I’m feeling a nice little hurricane burst in the Atlantic starting during the first week of September or somewhere in that vicinity. Which could help sustain the anticyclonic trough-west/ridge-east pattern an extra week thereafter, perhaps even longer.

 

The CCKW will have traversed out of the EPAC, and an MJO will be evacuating the Indo-Pacific simultaneously. All this under an antecedent poleward propagating +U regime which will climax with a wavenumber-3 anticyclonic breaker train. All solid climatic indicators for Atlantic tropical action.

[TT-SEA]

GFS just refuses to join the ECMWF in showing significant rain from Sunday into Monday.

 

00Z GFS shows a few spotty showers over the weekend and nothing much on Monday.   The trough axis is too far to the east for meaningful rain.  Also shows northerly flow on Monday which could possibly bring back smoke.

[Jesse]

GFS just refuses to join the ECMWF in showing significant rain from Sunday into Monday.

 

00Z GFS shows a few spotty showers over the weekend and nothing much on Monday.   The trough axis is too far to the east for meaningful rain.  Also shows northerly flow on Monday which could possibly bring back smoke.

 

18z and the GFS ensembles looked pretty wet.

[MossMan]

GFS just refuses to join the ECMWF in showing significant rain from Sunday into Monday.

 

00Z GFS shows a few spotty showers over the weekend and nothing much on Monday. The trough axis is too far to the east for meaningful rain. Also shows northerly flow on Monday which could possibly bring back smoke.

Not good, we need a region wide soaking.

[TT-SEA]

18z and the GFS ensembles looked pretty wet.

 

I honestly do not pay attention to the 18Z run.  

 

The 12Z run was sparse and the 00Z run shows even less.    I really thought the 00Z run would come around to the ECMWF.

[Jesse]

I honestly do not pay attention to the 18Z run.  

 

The 12Z run was sparse and the 00Z run shows even less.    

 

You always say that, but it has been shown many times that there is no significant difference in the accuracy of the 18Z or 06Z versus the 00z and 12z. 

[ShawniganLake]

A hot smoke here today. High of 91F

[TT-SEA]

You always say that, but it has been shown many times that there is no significant difference in the accuracy of the 18Z or 06Z versus the 00z and 12z. 

 

Whatever.    

 

I have to scroll through the 18Z run to compare the 00Z run and 12Z run and there is almost always strange jumps in there.   I see it every single day and just ignore it.   I could show you hundreds of examples but I don't care that much about it.  

 

Now I am wondering if the 00Z ECMWF is going to be drier like the 00Z GFS.

[Front Ranger]

Took my youngest to the park in Silverton this evening., Can't believe how dry it is. Looks like scorched earth...

 

 

I remember some good times at that park. Maybe even by that very tree!

[Jesse]

Whatever.    

 

I have to scroll through the 18Z run to compare the 00Z run and 12Z run and there is almost always strange jumps in there.   I see it every single day and just ignore it.   I could show you hundreds of examples but I don't care that much about it.  

 

Now I am wondering if the 00Z ECMWF is going to be drier like the 00Z GFS.

 

I'm sure you'll be the first to report it if it is. Luckily I will probably be in bed by then.

[Front Ranger]

You always say that, but it has been shown many times that there is no significant difference in the accuracy of the 18Z or 06Z versus the 00z and 12z. 

 

Kinda like how he says wildfires/drought are a problem no matter what if you get a dry July/August, when in fact there's been a strong correlation to dry late springs/early summers and bad wildfire seasons.

 

This year being another case in point.

[Jesse]

Kinda like how he says wildfires/drought are a problem no matter what if you get a dry July/August, when in fact there's been a strong correlation to dry late springs/early summers and bad wildfire seasons.

 

Leave Tim alone ya big meanie! I like dry late springs/early summers too!!

[TT-SEA]

Kinda like how he says wildfires/drought are a problem no matter what if you get a dry July/August, when in fact there's been a strong correlation to dry late springs/early summers and bad wildfire seasons.

 

I always say that?

 

I can't remember ever saying that before a couple weeks ago and that was an exaggeration to make a point that our anomalously wet rainy seasons recently are apparently not doing jack sh*t to prevent tree die off in our hot, dry summers.  

[Blizzard777]

Current conditions

SMOKE

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is still decently wet on Monday.  

 

Looks like the 00Z GFS wants to toy with the idea of a Labor Day weekend heat wave.    Likely a direct result of my booking a reservation on the east side of the mountains today.   

[ShawniganLake]

GFS kinda goes off the rails after day 8 or so.

[Jesse]

GFS kinda goes off the rails after day 8 or so.

 

Looks almost identical to what happened with the early August trough.

[TT-SEA]

GFS kinda goes off the rails after day 8 or so.

Off the rails in terms of additional rain events... but maybe not off the rails in terms of what will actually happen. Its very similar to what happened a couple weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

Looks almost identical to what happened with the early August trough.

We were typing the same thing at the same time. Great minds think alike.

[Jesse]

Off the rails in terms of additional rain events... but maybe not off the rails in terms of what will actually happen. Its very similar to what happened a couple weeks ago.

 

That was a pretty unusual setup. I wouldn't get my hopes up about lightning striking twice.

[TT-SEA]

That was a pretty unusual setup. I wouldn't get my hopes up about lightning striking twice.

 

Its probably not that unusual... those ULLs can always cut both ways.

 

00Z GEM is still troughy at day 10.    And the EPS did not show anything like what the 00Z GFS shows.