October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

What is your lowest temp so far this Autumn season. Mine is 25F, which occurred last night. Heavy frost was covering everything.

[Andie]

Hurricane Willa gave us yet another 2.10" of rain. Ground completely saturated.

 

Still overcast. Lots of color on the trees now.

 

57*. High of 64* today.

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

What is your lowest temp so far this Autumn season. Mine is 25F, which occurred last night. Heavy frost was covering everything.

 

Same here @ 25F, tho it was last week. Today got down to 27F only.

 

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                      NORMAL......................................................TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY  MAXIMUM         47    359 PM  58    -11       51  MINIMUM         27    440 AM  37    -10       32  AVERAGE         37            47    -10       42

 

That's Battle Creek's daily obs fyi. Can see how we're running 10 or 11 deg's below normals and it feels more like a typical week in later November. So I'd say we're due a relaxing of this long-running BN chill. Won't surprise me if it happens and I'd be ok with some Indian Summer tbh. I think we'll have plenty of weeks ahead to be cold again, lol

[jaster220]

 

This coastal is almost Miller-B-like with that 2ndry center of LP riding the OH/WV border. If this were winter, it might well be throwing some snowfall far enough NW to at least clip the far southern portion of The Mitt. This scenario seems to play out in the analog seasons quite a bit and is one reason Detroit has scored 30% above normal snowfall combined during my analog seasons.

[Niko]

Same here @ 25F, tho it was last week. Today got down to 27F only.

 

 

That's Battle Creek's daily obs fyi. Can see how we're running 10 or 11 deg's below normals and it feels more like a typical week in later November. So I'd say we're due a relaxing of this long-running BN chill. Won't surprise me if it happens and I'd be ok with some Indian Summer tbh. I think we'll have plenty of weeks ahead to be cold again, lol

Tbh, I'd prefer to get some moderation in November also and save the really cold weather for D and J, before the pattern relaxes a bit again.  November snows mean squad to me. The norm is still too warm.

 

FWIW: December looks very cold for SEMI and quite snowy.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F w cloudy skies. Not nearly as cold as last night.

[Tom]

 

This coastal is almost Miller-B-like with that 2ndry center of LP riding the OH/WV border. If this were winter, it might well be throwing some snowfall far enough NW to at least clip the far southern portion of The Mitt. This scenario seems to play out in the analog seasons quite a bit and is one reason Detroit has scored 30% above normal snowfall combined during my analog seasons.

This almost looks like a double barrel low that tracks up the App/OV which I originally thought the main SLP would track but instead it hugged the gulf coast.  I wouldn't mind seeing this system again in future cycles as it'll likely produce a NE/E wind around here and quite a widespread precipitation event.

[Tom]

Interesting, this cool stretch of weather may set a record for the least amount of 60's from Oct 11th-31st.  I say we go for it!  

 

 

[Tom]

I just subscribed to Ryan Maue's Weather Models site and I'm very impressed with all the tools/maps they have available.  If you haven't subscribed or are considering a site, I highly recommend this company.  Like Hawkeye mentioned, they end their $10/mo early subscriber subscription cost on the 29th and raise it to $13/mo on the 30th.  

 

Meantime, last nights 00z EPS run confirms the idea of significant amounts of high lat blocking across Canada that develop during the tail end of Oct and into early Nov, all while, a wild and stormy pattern sets up across the central/eastern portions of our sub.  From all indications, we will be opening up November cold and stormy.  I wouldn't be surprised if someone across the MW/GL's see's a winter storm with this setup.

 

Edit: Does anyone know where the Euro Weeklies section is on this site?

 

Never mind, I found it...

[Tom]

A bit late, but I fired up a November thread....gear up for an active opening!

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1873-november-2018-observations-and-discussion/

[Niko]

Currently at 43F w cloudy skies. A gloomy weekend ahead w readings not getting past the 40s. Maybe some sun by Monday of next week.

[Minny_Weather]

Are Maue's Euro weekly maps similar to WxBell's? Specifically the 500mb height maps? I'm considering dumping TrueWX simply cuz its 500mb height maps are garbage.

[Tom]

Are Maue's Euro weekly maps similar to WxBell's? Specifically the 500mb height maps? I'm considering dumping TrueWX simply cuz its 500mb height maps are garbage.

His Euro Weekly maps are in 5-day averages, not individual days like on Wx Bell.  That's the only difference I see in terms of the 500mb height maps.

[FV-Mike]

October has been a chilly one for the GL. Skilling today said that Oct 11th-Oct 31st will likely produce the least amount of 60 degree highs since 1871. We have only had 1 during this time. 

[Niko]

The snow cover in Canada is insane.

[CentralNebWeather]

75 yesterday 75 today. Where did our cooler weather go? I would say 90-95% of trees are bare and a cold front is approaching in the next 3 hours that will shift winds to the Northwest at over 45 mph. By tomorrow morning everything should be bare

[Niko]

Wet, breezy and cold today w temps not getting outta the low 40s for highs (42F was the official high temp). Its a real raw evening outside if you are venturing outdoors. Lows expected to be in the 30s w damp conditions.

[Tom]

That clipper racing SE across ND/MN looks sweet on radar. Nice, tightly wrapped up system. A bunch of wind advisories issued across the MW for tomorrow. I must say, this autumn has had some very windy days from various wx systems. I tend to believe it’s a sign of things to come.

[Minny_Weather]

The clipper has arrived here. It's a blizzard of leaves outside and the windows are howling. This should bring us back down to average for a day at least!!! 63.5*F, at 10:49 PM.

[Tom]

The clipper has arrived here. It's a blizzard of leaves outside and the windows are howling. This should bring us back down to average for a day at least!!! 63.5*F, at 10:49 PM.

Haha, I always enjoy reading your humor bud.  I'm sure you'll get opportunities to see the other kind of blizzard we all like to enjoy.

 

Meantime, I'm getting clipped by the southern periphery of precip which is pivoting through the region.  Light, to at times, mod rains have fallen and dropped only about .10-.20 of rain.  No biggie.  Looking forward to the strong W/NW winds later this afternoon.

[westMJim]

There now have been 17 days in a row of below average temperatures here at Grand Rapids, but the start of the month was so warm GRR mean is still 50.8° for the month and that is just -08°.  I am not sure why but for some reason the leaves on the trees hare hanging on tough this fall. Here in the NW side of the Grand Rapids area there are still a lot of leaves still on the trees. While there is some color the color is not all that great here yet either, Note it is not because of the lack of cold temperatures as there have been several sub 30° lows here.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.20" of rain overnight, the first real rain in eighteen days.

[Niko]

More rains today as a clipper type system races on through. Temps remain in the 40s all day. Currently at 41F w cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.

[Hawkeye]

So far, the wind is gusting to the 49-53 mph range from Waterloo to the QC.

[Niko]

Its a wet, cold, gloomy Sunday afternoon w readings holding steady at 41F.

[jaster220]

Its a wet, cold, gloomy Sunday afternoon w readings holding steady at 41F.

 

Yep, tho not quite that cold here in SWMI as SEMI. I mean mid-40s and rain is a regular occurrence during winter months here in SMI and this evening felt so similar it really has me itching to see our first real snowstorm. I'm normally kinda patient not wanting things to get out of seasonal alignment, but this pattern just makes one believe it could happen any time. Not like the usual sunny and 70F Indian Summer that is so often a feature around Halloween here. 

[jaster220]

Yet ANOTHER system with wide-spread radar returns over the E GL's region. This could be amazing if it repeats later. 3rd system for these parts in the past 10 days

 

 

[Niko]

Cloudy and chilly currently w readings in the upper 30s.

[Hawkeye]

Today is the last day to subscribe to Maue's weathermodels.com site and still get the lower price.  I thought about it, but I guess I'll make do with the free stuff.  Weathermodels.com and its companion site weather.us both have much of the same model data, including detailed euro data.  Weathermodels.com just has Maue's pretty maps and nice interface.  Also, weathermodels.com will be adding the 06z/18z euro data, while weather.us may not.  Weather.us, however, does also have the new hourly euro data through 90 hours, which is nice.

[Niko]

Some sunshine breaking through the clouds now w temps around 44F. Its also a bit breezy.

[Hawkeye]

Today will be another very pleasant one, sunny and 60 degrees with a modest wind.  It has been a cool pattern, but we've had several nice days.

[jaster220]

My hood looks like it got leaf bombed after this weekend's clipper system. They came down soaked and just plastered to everything! 

[Niko]

I have beautiful colors here. Some have fallen and some have not. Very few are still a little green also.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today w plentiful sunshine and a crisp, cool breeze. More showers coming by Wednesday as a Clippa type system moves on through. Temps remain chilly by weeks end w 40s for highs and 30s for lows.

[jaster220]

I have beautiful colors here. Some have fallen and some have not. Very few are still a little green also.

 

After work, I made use of what daylight remained to rake up my front yard piling the leafs at the curb since there were signs that the city has begun it's annual collection. My maple in front did finally develop a brilliant yellow-orange hue which peaked Saturday just as the storm was setting in, which proceeded to strip about 30% of it's colorful leafs off.

 

 

There are some beautiful trees scattered across the countryside, and here in town, but there's also some stretches where it already looks past peak. The hardier oaks are turning now, but unless it's a red oak, they're all just shades of brown. Unlike NMI, the color change happens down here in 3 phases. First 1/3 are colorful and turn just due to sun light lessening, not relying on cold temps whatsoever. Then another 1/3 turn after we get a frost or two. I consider that peak here, which is happening this week. Then, after 2/3rds of the trees have turned, there's still that 1/3 of super-hardy willows, Norway Maples, Burr Oaks, etc that finally turn in the first half of November. In NMI, if the conditions were right, you could almost witness peak color passing thru as a wave wherein 80+% of the trees were brilliant at once. An awesome sight if sunny days coordinated with that single week.

 

K, this should be my final post on autumn colors. Onward to..jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way!

 

The Mitt has enjoyed back-to-back snowy Decembers. Can we shoot for the tri-fecta??

 

Last December. Not super deep, but cold and certainly preferred over a brown-grounder

 

[Niko]

After work, I made use of what daylight remained to rake up my front yard piling the leafs at the curb since there were signs that the city has begun it's annual collection. My maple in front did finally develop a brilliant yellow-orange hue which peaked Saturday just as the storm was setting in, which proceeded to strip about 30% of it's colorful leafs off.

 

20181029.JPG

 

There are some beautiful trees scattered across the countryside, and here in town, but there's also some stretches where it already looks past peak. The hardier oaks are turning now, but unless it's a red oak, they're all just shades of brown. Unlike NMI, the color change happens down here in 3 phases. First 1/3 are colorful and turn just due to sun light lessening, not relying on cold temps whatsoever. Then another 1/3 turn after we get a frost or two. I consider that peak here, which is happening this week. Then, after 2/3rds of the trees have turned, there's still that 1/3 of super-hardy willows, Norway Maples, Burr Oaks, etc that finally turn in the first half of November. In NMI, if the conditions were right, you could almost witness peak color passing thru as a wave wherein 80+% of the trees were brilliant at once. An awesome sight if sunny days coordinated with that single week.

 

K, this should be my final post on autumn colors. Onward to..jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way!

 

The Mitt has enjoyed back-to-back snowy Decembers. Can we shoot for the tri-fecta??

 

Last December. Not super deep, but cold and certainly preferred over a brown-grounder

 

DSC00006.JPG

I like your Christmas decorations. Hopefully, this year the snows will be deeper.

[Tom]

Looks like the record may not stand for the least amount of sub 60 degree days through the end of the month as today we are expecting our 1st 60F+ day since the 10th!  That's impressive to say the least.  Looking forward to a warmer day in the low 60's before we head back BN for a stretch.  On a side note, I'm also looking forward to the weekend when the clocks turn back an hour so my mornings aren't so dark.  While on the way to the gym, it's still a bit dark so that'll be nice to see daylight instead of darkness starting on Sunday.

 

Meanwhile, models are painting a good soaker around here later tonight...

 

[Niko]

Currently at 31F w clear skies, calm winds and heavy frost.

[westMJim]

While there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in my area the color has sure exploded over the last two days and this morning most trees are in full color. I would say here north of Grand Rapids the color has now finally reached it peak. I am going to go out for my walk before the rain starts and enjoy to color show. The current temp here is now up to 43. 

[Niko]

Some showers will be developing later today but ending b4 Halloween night. Forecast looks dry and temps in the 40s for those venturing outside for candy tomorrow evening.

 

Halloween night Forecast@ 7:00pm in SEMI: Cloudy and chilly w dry road conditions. Temps between 43-48F.