October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

SO!........we have received 10.64" of rain over the past 6 days according to a neighbors weather station.

 

Currently 47*

And yes, more on the way.

 

Sewers are backing up, roads are buckling. I35 has a 5" gap in one section of the Dallas freeway.

These are popping up all over. And of course, pot holes.

 

The Llano River in Central Texas rose 35' over 2 days. 2 deaths when cars were swept off road.

 

2 more days ahead.

It's going to be a long winter.

[OKwx2k4]

SO!........we have received 10.64" of rain over the past 6 days according to a neighbors weather station.

 

Currently 47*

And yes, more on the way.

 

Sewers are backing up, roads are buckling. I35 has a 5" gap in one section of the Dallas freeway.

These are popping up all over. And of course, pot holes.

 

The Llano River in Central Texas rose 35' over 2 days. 2 deaths when cars were swept off road.

 

2 more days ahead.

It's going to be a long winter.

I'm so sorry to hear this. Not something I ever get excited about. Here's hoping you get some dryer weather soon.

[Tom]

SO!........we have received 10.64" of rain over the past 6 days according to a neighbors weather station.

 

Currently 47*

And yes, more on the way.

 

Sewers are backing up, roads are buckling. I35 has a 5" gap in one section of the Dallas freeway.

These are popping up all over. And of course, pot holes.

 

The Llano River in Central Texas rose 35' over 2 days. 2 deaths when cars were swept off road.

 

2 more days ahead.

It's going to be a long winter.

That's just incredible.  I've noted this cut-off trough in my notes for this years developing cyclical pattern.  This system is just parked in the 4  corners region sending waves of tropical moisture into NW/TX.  I'm just amazed at how drastically different this year is looking already, esp for you members down south.  

[Tom]

I was hopeful a year ago that it was going to be a re-curing portion of the LRC. That wasn't to be the case tho. Is there anything different this season that might provide a more favorable environment to actually get a repeat during winter? (presuming it even happens the first time now ofc)

I've noticed over the years that big ticket systems tend to cycle through vividly, however, weaker and less dynamic storms appear to show themselves every other cycle.  Last year, we lacked the blocking early in the season IIRC.  We had the mega late January torch and mid/late Feb torch.  The blocking ended up taking over in March/April after the PV Split in Feb.  This year, I'm anticipating a lot more blocking throughout the season.  In essence, there will be more dynamic, blockbuster storms across our sub.  Just a hunch from what I'm seeing.

[Tom]

This is just amazing.  I'm not sure how to put it, but my mind is #mindblown if the JMA weeklies are right.  If they are, this would pretty much set up the LRC for the year through the later parts of November.  First of all, there is an enormous signal for the continuation of the Bearing Sea Trough, High Lat Blocking, AK/NE PAC Ridge and a long term, long wave trough centered across our entire sub forum.  Folks, I do NOT see any notable pullback in the extended and we may just be witnessing the beginnings of a historic stretch of winter when we flip the calendar into November.  You guys know me by now, I'll tell you how it is, but at this juncture, we are in for a Spectacular showcasing of what natures fury can deliver.  Finally, on this side of the Globe which was my gut feeling from way back when.  I'm both excited, and anxious, to be able to study this pattern and track winter storms, while providing as much useful info for all of us on here.  Giddy up...here we go...

 

After a tranquil period this week, the atmosphere is gearing up for what I believe will be an action packed finish to this month and opening of November.  First off, temps for Week 2 have chilled quite a bit and moisture is abundant.

 

Week 2 Temps...notice that 500mb pattern out in the PAC and across N.A...can you paint a better one???

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D1712_gl2.png

 

Precip...
 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D1712_gl0.png

 

 

Weeks 3-4...

 

Temps...these will likely cool significantly by next weeks run.  BTW, I'm seeing a clue that we may a SE ridge develop Week 3 of November.  If so, I think we could see the beginnings of LRC cycle #2.  That's still way out there but my first best guess at the moment.  If I'd put a date on it, sometime close to the 11/22 date.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1712_gl2.png

 

 

Again, abundant amounts of precip being forecasted...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1712_gl0.png

 

 

Current state of the SST's...the Warm "Blob" is Back and means Business...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1712_gls.png

[westMJim]

With clear skies the current temperature here at my house is 26° and that is the overnight low. At GRR the low looks to be 27.  This is the coldest it has been at Grand Rapids since April 17^th  It should be noted while there is frost out this morning there is not a whole lot of frost but here is ice in the bird bath. The last freeze in Grand Rapids was on April 30^th so this year Grand Rapids has a 171 days growing season.

[Andie]

That's just incredible. I've noted this cut-off trough in my notes for this years developing cyclical pattern. This system is just parked in the 4 corners region sending waves of tropical moisture into NW/TX. I'm just amazed at how drastically different this year is looking already, esp for you members down south.

 

So, you're telling me this week could repeat itself in another incarnation?

 

From what I can gather from the conversations here (I'm not a techie) you guys are saying Oklahoma and Texas are going to see systems that will hammer us with moisture/snow/ice. Right?

 

We aren't set up for this en masse. This region is generally a dry region with about 32" of rain annually.

We're way over that now.

 

More rain tomorrow ~1" (+or-)

[Niko]

Currently @ 32F w crystal clear skies. Last night dipped down to 26F. Heavy frost!

[Niko]

Another cold blast coming during the weekend as a series of CF's come down from Canada. It stays BN for a good chunk of next week.

[Tom]

So, you're telling me this week could repeat itself in another incarnation?

 

From what I can gather from the conversations here (I'm not a techie) you guys are saying Oklahoma and Texas are going to see systems that will hammer us with moisture/snow/ice. Right?

 

We aren't set up for this en masse. This region is generally a dry region with about 32" of rain annually.

We're way over that now.

 

More rain tomorrow ~1" (+or-)

I’m not sure how much you have followed our sub forum, but I’m a big believer of what is known as the LRC (Lezak recurring cycle) developed by a met Gary Lezak. During Oct/Nov, in the westerly belt, we see a brand new cycling pattern develop and re-cycle during all the seasons up until next Oct. It’s really fascinating stuff and I’ll show you examples throughout the season. Hopefully that helps.

[Tom]

Another cold blast coming during the weekend as a series of CF's come down from Canada. It stays BN for a good chunk of next week.

Same here, the warm up on Friday has been muted a tad. Last nights Euro has several nights in yhthe 20’s across our region. It’s like we flipped a switch since the 10th.

[james1976]

Made it down to 27. Coldest morning yet. Today and tomorrow look the warmest for the foreseeable future. Thats a potent CF Saturday. Is that lake effect snow showing up off Lake Michigan this weekend?

[Hawkeye]

We had our first real freeze this morning.  The hummer feeder had some slush in it, so the temp must have dropped solidly below freezing.

[bud2380]

Iowa City airport got down to 30 and CR airport got down to 28.  

[CentralNebWeather]

We have talked about leaves before on here.  It is a very strange look around my town.  Some trees are completely empty of leaves now, some are still greenish but the leaves shriveled up on our low 20's nights.  They are just waiting for a strong wind and it will be a leaf blizzard around here.  Very few trees have good color.  Disappointing if you like to look at color of the trees changing.  My neighbor lost all of his leaves last week that fell as green leaves.  I am jealous that his pick up work is now complete on his yard.  I am just waiting for our shriveled leaves to fall.

[Niko]

Same here, the warm up on Friday has been muted a tad. Last nights Euro has several nights in yhthe 20’s across our region. It’s like we flipped a switch since the 10th.

Exactly. MA Nature decided to let us know what October should really be like.

 

Btw: this morning it looked like it had snowed. Everything was covered in heavy frost..I.E., rooftops, grass, cartops and etc.

[OKwx2k4]

We have talked about leaves before on here. It is a very strange look around my town. Some trees are completely empty of leaves now, some are still greenish but the leaves shriveled up on our low 20's nights. They are just waiting for a strong wind and it will be a leaf blizzard around here. Very few trees have good color. Disappointing if you like to look at color of the trees changing. My neighbor lost all of his leaves last week that fell as green leaves. I am jealous that his pick up work is now complete on his yard. I am just waiting for our shriveled leaves to fall.

That stinks. I wish you would have gotten a little bit of fall color. My trees are going to likely meet the same fate, though. We will all make up for the loss of color with a lot of white stuff instead. But I'm like you, I was really looking forward to the colors this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

That stinks. I wish you would have gotten a little bit of fall color. My trees are going to likely meet the same fate, though. We will all make up for the loss of color with a lot of white stuff instead. But I'm like you, I was really looking forward to the colors this year.

I guess we wait for next year. I did lose some today and I think by next week many trees will be bare. I guess we can look forward to snow instead of color, that would be all right.

[Andie]

I’m not sure how much you have followed our sub forum, but I’m a big believer of what is known as the LRC (Lezak recurring cycle) developed by a met Gary Lezak. During Oct/Nov, in the westerly belt, we see a brand new cycling pattern develop and re-cycle during all the seasons up until next Oct. It’s really fascinating stuff and I’ll show you examples throughout the season. Hopefully that helps.

Yes. Thanks! I'm learning as I go here. But I think this is going to be an interesting fall and winter.

They're finally coming out with documentation on what we Texans have known for some time. Our tornado season has shifted east. That seems to be accompanied by other adjustments in the other seasons that we have witnessed this past 6 months especially.

[jaster220]

Currently @ 32F w crystal clear skies. Last night dipped down to 26F. Heavy frost!

 

Same in Marshall. Oddly, the same as last Oct, zero frost then BAM a 26 deg morning. Now, this morning beats last year's (27th) by 9 days so we're not talking a duplicate month by any means. I think the differences will really grow going forward too. The lowest my car thermo got was 25F and like you said, all the bushes and trees, everything was white like snow had fallen. Glad we got that monkey off our backs! Now for flakes?? I forget if it was Oct 2015 or 2016 that we took a Saturday drive to shop at Great Lakes Crossing in Auburn Hills and encountered several snow showers and even a heavy sleet squall over in SEMI. 

[Niko]

Same in Marshall. Oddly, the same as last Oct, zero frost then BAM a 26 deg morning. Now, this morning beats last year's (27th) by 9 days so we're not talking a duplicate month by any means. I think the differences will really grow going forward too. The lowest my car thermo got was 25F and like you said, all the bushes and trees, everything was white like snow had fallen. Glad we got that monkey off our backs! Now for flakes?? I forget if it was Oct 2015 or 2016 that we took a Saturday drive to shop at Great Lakes Crossing in Auburn Hills and encountered several snow showers and even a heavy sleet squall over in SEMI. 

I wont be surprised if we see flakes by months end.

 

Ya didn't see me yelling at you in Auburn Hills inside the parking lot.....Yo Jasterrrrrrr....right ova hereeeeee??!!!!

[Niko]

Clear night and not nearly as cold as last nite. Temps are in the mid 40s and falling into the upper 30s for lows.

 

Colder air its on its way as another CF approaches!!

[jaster220]

Clear night and not nearly as cold as last nite. Temps are in the mid 40s and falling into the upper 30s for lows.

 

Colder air its on its way as another CF approaches!!

 

Yeah, and the GFS has an intriguing scenario. A little vort pops on the backside of the trough from the bombing system up in Canada. It pops in Wisco and heads SE over us. A little booster lift as shown would help our chances of seeing first flakes Sat night into Sun morning.

 

[Niko]

Yes. Thanks! I'm learning as I go here. But I think this is going to be an interesting fall and winter.

They're finally coming out with documentation on what we Texans have known for some time. Our tornado season has shifted east. That seems to be accompanied by other adjustments in the other seasons that we have witnessed this past 6 months especially.

Stick around and you will learn a lot on this sub-forum. You have no idea how much I know now about weather than before. I feel like I have taken a Meteorology class for a couple of years.....

[Niko]

Yeah, and the GFS has an intriguing scenario. A little vort pops on the backside of the trough from the bombing system up in Canada. It pops in Wisco and heads SE over us. A little booster lift as shown would help our chances of seeing first flakes Sat night into Sun morning.

 

20181018 18Z gfs_precip_h56 0z Sun Oct21.png

.....Here we go...let the fun begin. Should be fun seeing the first flakes. 

[jaster220]

GFS continues to go bonkers for the end of the month system. Need some colder air to get in here for the kind of wound-up moist storm shown. (not to mention it's about 3 wks earlier than the traditional GL's autumn bomb season but there is last Oct and 11-17-14 to argue that a warm powerhouse storm isn't completely unheard of).

 

Fun eye candy to look at as always. Just wish I had a "C" note for every time the models have flashed this over my seasons of model watching.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Made it up to 68F here this afternoon. By Saturday morning we should have some flakes flying again.

 

#fall

[OKwx2k4]

GFS continues to go bonkers for the end of the month system. Need some colder air to get in here for the kind of wound-up moist storm shown. (not to mention it's about 3 wks earlier than the traditional GL's autumn bomb season but there is last Oct and 11-17-14 to argue that a warm powerhouse storm isn't completely unheard of).

 

Fun eye candy to look at as always. Just wish I had a "C" note for every time the models have flashed this over my seasons of model watching.

 

20181018 18Z gfs_precip_h252 6z Mon Oct29.png

I always think of November 1975 when I see a mauler like that up there over the lakes.

[Andie]

Rain moving in. Flash flood warning in effect till 10 pm tomorrow night.

 

Imagine if this was snow.

[Niko]

GFS continues to go bonkers for the end of the month system. Need some colder air to get in here for the kind of wound-up moist storm shown. (not to mention it's about 3 wks earlier than the traditional GL's autumn bomb season but there is last Oct and 11-17-14 to argue that a warm powerhouse storm isn't completely unheard of).

 

Fun eye candy to look at as always. Just wish I had a "C" note for every time the models have flashed this over my seasons of model watching.

 

20181018 18Z gfs_precip_h252 6z Mon Oct29.png

If it was Winter...man, we would have been inundated under a lot of snow and wind.

[OKwx2k4]

Rain moving in. Flash flood warning in effect till 10 pm tomorrow night.

 

Imagine if this was snow.

Goodness. Watching the news tonight and thinking the exact same thing. Tilt that plume E-NE (suppression) and bleed cold into it later on. What a pattern. Took the words right out of my mouth. Glad parts of my state are catching up on moisture. Tulsa is still 6 inches behind on the year. It stinks that it's coming at the expense of flooding Texas out in the process.

 

That happened to my area in the El Niño of 2015-16, except it was December 29th. Glad you're getting it over with in October.

[Tom]

Yesterday's high temp of 57F felt almost warm with the sunshine and a nice SW breeze.  The 2nd week of this month is turning out to be a dramatic flip from the extended summer in Sept and the 1st 10 days of October.  This region has been locked in a BN temp regime and the extended is painting a similar tune, except for the transitional period coming mid next week as the jet flattens out and becomes more zonal, allowing a system to target British Columbia as a Rex Block forms across Canada.

 

There were 2 systems I had been looking for a while back using the BSR (20th-22nd) and (26th-28th).  The first, of which, is clearly not going to impact much of our sub forum, except for the GL's region this weekend that'll usher in the coldest air of the season with a sharp CF and some lake effect rain/snow showers.  I'm going to keep a mental note with this one if this system cycles back and there is a Greenland Block, look out.

 

The second system is still on the table but as blocking is becoming established, it'll take a little longer to try and figure out where/how this storm develops. My original thoughts were for a southerly track across the Apps/OV.

 

 

Meantime, models are on board for a hard freeze across the MW...esp for those closer to the shorelines of the GL's on this side of the lake...

 

 

[Tom]

In other news, are you feeling lucky today??? Get out and play that Mega Millions! Jackpot is estimated to be $970m...it may creep closer to that billion dollar mark. Good luck!

 

http://www.megamillions.com/

[Niko]

In other news, are you feeling lucky today???  Get out and play that Mega Millions!  Jackpot is estimated to be $970m...it may creep closes to that billion dollar mark.  Good luck!

 

http://www.megamillions.com/

I think its a record Jackpot also.

[CentralNebWeather]

Upper 60's today, nice.  State Cross Country this afternoon in Kearney and our last football game at Kearney Catholic this evening with beautiful weather all day and evening.  Where did the fall athletic season go?  

[Niko]

Currently, a chilly 42F w partly cloudy skies. Yes, the letter "S" is in my forecast for Saturday nite as showers mix w and change to wet snow. Little or no accumulations are expected. A potent CF will reinforce the cold air w highs on Sunday in the low 40s and wcf remaining near the freezing mark or slightly above all day.

[Stacsh]

Bowling ball system keeps showing up on the GFS and EURO around Halloween for the middle of the country.  SPOOKY. 

[gabel23]

Upper 60's today, nice.  State Cross Country this afternoon in Kearney and our last football game at Kearney Catholic this evening with beautiful weather all day and evening.  Where did the fall athletic season go?  

Won't be long and will be talking basketball, x-mas lights, and hopefully snow storms!!!

[Hawkeye]

It's going to be a windy football game in Iowa City (vs Maryland) midday Saturday.

[james1976]

Bowling ball system keeps showing up on the GFS and EURO around Halloween for the middle of the country. SPOOKY.

Yeah GFS wants to get interesting around 28th.