October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Tom have you seen flakes yet?

[Tom]

Tom have you seen flakes yet?

Not yet! It’s all been happening to my west.

[WBadgersW]

Picture from a sectional race up in Stevens point. - stole it from someone else

 

[Niko]

Winds are gusting to 45mph and a current temp of 38F. Wcf at 29F. Haven't seen a flake yet, but radar showing snowshowers just to my west now.

[jaster220]

Holy crap! I went into the store about 10-15min ago and came out into a legit wind tunnel! These winds are no joke. It’s everything and some for what I had in mind for today. This will be a nasty arctic/snow squall event next cycle.

 

Same thoughts here...as I get pelted by some heavy rain drops and small embedded hail stones. Wind is a crankin as well. The arctic front that set off the great LES bliz of '77 must've been something like this. Whiteout conditions for a couple hours with 50 mph gusts and temps dropping to zero.

[hlcater]

Nebraska won. Damnit. I was hoping for an 0-12

[Minny_Weather]

Nebraska won. Damnit. I was hoping for an 0-12

Time to go 7-6 now.

[jaster220]

The 1st "B" word issued from LOT...

 

 

Sneak attack storm ftw! FAIL on the part of GRR to not even mention it until it was imminent, lol. Highest wind report I saw on their site was 63 mph along the coast in St. Joe but even here well inland we scored:

 

 

000

NWUS53 KGRR 201905

LSRGRR

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

305 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0240 PM TSTM WND GST MARSHALL 42.26N 84.96W

10/20/2018 M50 MPH CALHOUN MI AWOS

 

GUST TO 44 KNOTS. TIME IS APPROXIMATE.

OCCURRED BETWEEN METAR TRANSMISSION TIMES.

AWOS STATION RMY, MARSHALL BROOKS FIELD.

 

Marshall also reported a 41 mph gust just before 1 pm. Stormiest day all warm season and stormiest autumn day since Nov 17, 2013 and not so much as a hazardous outlook mention in the preceding days!

 

I headed towards Kzoo around 2:20 and all h*ll broke loose. Cannot remember the last time an ULL dropping in from the NW packed this kind of combo-punch. I saw all these hazards:

 

_ bold CTG strokes

_ hail

_ winds blowing my car around

_ intense rainfall

_ flooded roads

_ 12" dia limb down

_ Snow flakes mixed in

_ Temp crashed from 47F to 36F during the worst

_ power out on the street just west of mine

_ 1st leaf bliz of the season, lol

 

Two things really surprised me. This had to be the heaviest qpf event since early days of Sept, and the duration of the heavy wind-driven squalls. This wasn't your typical CF passes in 20 min's and done. This went on (aided by Lk Mich perhaps) for at least 4 hrs. Would've been a classic mini-bliz at least in the LES belt counties if not inland.

 

Now this is the kind of intense wx days I remember from those 70's and 80's decades. Cannot get over the way this thing just exploded outta nowhere even with that bombing system further up in Canada. This will no doubt be the highlight of Oct around here. If we get anything else in the next 11 days, that'll just be frosting on the cake. Oh, and temps plummeting below freezing by morning for good measure.

[jaster220]

Troughy & squally!!

 

 

That's a large area of precip that wasn't really anticipated

 

 

Come back again this winter..

 

 

[jaster220]

my (former) backyard getting hammered!

 

That's actually quite rare for October due to the proximity to warm Lake Michigan and Grand Traverse Bay waters.

 

[jaster220]

Can still hear the winds rushing thru the trees outside my window. Going on 9 hrs now.

[Niko]

Clear to partly cloudy and current temp at 34F. Winds are still gusty. I was able to hear the wind from the restaurant windows, as if someone was whistling.

[jaster220]

A week ago I was in NMI and got to see some nice color. Didn't get as many photos as I'd planned but this shows how the trees really light up in that part of the northland. Not sure if it's the soil, the chillier nights, or what exactly. Colors are always much more stunning than downstate.

 

[Andie]

What a week! Nice map by weatherbell

 

Record early season cold and snow have taken over the central United States

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/16/record-early-season-cold-snow-have-taken-over-central-united-states/?utm_term=.98cf318c4f70

[Hawkeye]

The Cedar Rapids airport sure dives fast on good radiational cooling nights.  It's already down to 26 out there in the country.  It's still 35 downtown and about 33 here.

[Niko]

Temps are dropping like a rock...already at the freezing mark. Wcf at 23F. Winds are still gusty at 24mph from the NW. Lows falling in the upper 20s.

[Niko]

Next week features chilly temps. Not much warmth. My warmest reading is near 55F. Nights remain cold w readings be held in the 30s all week and one or two nights in the 20s. Not much rainfall...pretty much a dry week also.

[james1976]

Currently at 23°. It's cold!

[Tom]

Currently at 23°. It's cold!

Ya, same feeling here. Went to the gym a couple hours ago and the cold had some bite! Hit a low of 28F.

 

Edit: The city officially had a Freeze as it got down to 30F in the loop which is pretty early (Nov 4th).

[Niko]

Currently at 32F w cloudy skies and a few spotty flurries flying. Winds have definitely subsided.

[jaster220]

Temps are dropping like a rock...already at the freezing mark. Wcf at 23F. Winds are still gusty at 24mph from the NW. Lows falling in the upper 20s.

 

Only got to 32F briefly due to clouds for all but 1 hour. Same clouds are holding temps down as well. Only 41F at noon which is more typical for late November!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Hey @centralneb, am I wrong or did Kearney catholic do a little running up the score tonight?! I only ask because I have a little history with that school and town when it comes to things like that...

We certainly believe so. Trying to set a rushing record vs. our young kids late in the 4th quarter. We told our team, which is very young, remember this in the future.

[gabel23]

We certainly believe so. Trying to set a rushing record vs. our young kids late in the 4th quarter. We told our team, which is very young, remember this in the future.

What comes around goes around; I seen that score and thought that immediately. Your guys time will come and when it does don’t take it easy!

[jaster220]

We certainly believe so. Trying to set a rushing record vs. our young kids late in the 4th quarter. We told our team, which is very young, remember this in the future.

 

What comes around goes around; I seen that score and thought that immediately. Your guys time will come and when it does don’t take it easy!

 

Just curious. Are both of your avatar pic's from the 09-10 season? Both look like some super deep snow!

[Andie]

Had a lovely sunny high of 70*. Light breeze.

 

Awesome day!

[Niko]

Only got to 32F briefly due to clouds for all but 1 hour. Same clouds are holding temps down as well. Only 41F at noon which is more typical for late November!

 

20181021 Marshall avg temp graph.JPG

Did you end up seeing and flurries? I saw very few for a few seconds and that was it.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F w mostly cloudy skies. Wcf at 31F w a light breeze.

[OKwx2k4]

Beauty of a day here in Oklahoma. Dry and cool. Let's get the rest of those leaves changing before the season goes directly to winter.

[jaster220]

Same thoughts here...as I get pelted by some heavy rain drops and small embedded hail stones. Wind is a crankin as well. The arctic front that set off the great LES bliz of '77 must've been something like this. Whiteout conditions for a couple hours with 50 mph gusts and temps dropping to zero.

 

When yesterday's arctic front came through, the clouds were so low they seemed to be just above the tree line. I mentioned how intense the front was in my later summary post. Well, I just stumbled on this little snippit I had saved regarding that infamous arctic front of Jan '77 and if you look closely, there's some cryptic weather coding that's rarely seen and the author of the article goes on to explain it.

 

 

Before I moved north to Traverse region, I lived in Genesee Cnty and in Jan '90 we had a 2-part storm with the coma head a day later than over-running snows. I worked with an older gent in Flint at the time and he said it was the worst whiteout since the Jan '77 arctic front. It hit on a Sat afternoon and I happened to be downtown and you could barely make out the building across the street. As much snow as we've scored around SMI in the last 15 yrs I've no right to complain but I sure miss the intensity of those storms of yesteryear. Maybe this will be the "retro flash back season"?

 

There was some banter on that other board about which Nino or Nina's are good vs bad. Apparently 1st year Nino's have a better track record for the EC and subsequent can be duds, however it was pointed out that 77-78 was actually a 2nd year Nino. 76-77 was a dry version of 77-78. They both featured a GL's bomb that went north and spun there piling up the LES. Ofc the major difference for non-LES areas was that 78's brought GOMEX moisture up from the deep south and merged it with the bitter system dropping in from MN.

[jaster220]

The 1st "B" word issued from LOT...

 

 

Had to be record early use by LOT, no??

[jaster220]

Did you end up seeing and flurries? I saw very few for a few seconds and that was it.

 

If some fell overnight, they were met by the sounds of me snoring. The flakes I saw clearly were mixed in with the heavy squalls yesterday afternoon. 

[OKwx2k4]

When yesterday's arctic front came through, the clouds were so low they seemed to be just above the tree line. I mentioned how intense the front was in my later summary post. Well, I just stumbled on this little snippit I had saved regarding that infamous arctic front of Jan '77 and if you look closely, there's some cryptic weather coding that's rarely seen and the author of the article goes on to explain it.

 

NOAA Map for 28Jan77.jpg

 

Before I moved north to Traverse region, I lived in Genesee Cnty and in Jan '90 we had a 2-part storm with the coma head a day later than over-running snows. I worked with an older gent in Flint at the time and he said it was the worst whiteout since the Jan '77 arctic front. It hit on a Sat afternoon and I happened to be downtown and you could barely make out the building across the street. As much snow as we've scored around SMI in the last 15 yrs I've no right to complain but I sure miss the intensity of those storms of yesteryear. Maybe this will be the "retro flash back season"?

 

There was some banter on that other board about which Nino or Nina's are good vs bad. Apparently 1st year Nino's have a better track record for the EC and subsequent can be duds, however it was pointed out that 77-78 was actually a 2nd year Nino. 76-77 was a dry version of 77-78. They both featured a GL's bomb that went north and spun there piling up the LES. Ofc the major difference for non-LES areas was that 78's brought GOMEX moisture up from the deep south and merged it with the bitter system dropping in from MN.

Awesome post buddy. Stuff to think about this year.

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  Back on the grind today and the wx to start off the work week will be delightful!  Plenty of sunshine and warmer temps are on the agenda today.  Even though we will make to about average today which is around 60F, I'm sure it will feel like a heat wave after this weekends cold weather.  However, another chilly and tranquil week is on tap until we reach the weekend as the models are beginning to hone in a slow moving system sliding SSE out of Canada into the MW/GL's.

 

 

 

The storm system that has been on my calendar (26th-28th) is a complex one as there are 2 pieces of energy that will likely produce the majority of the action along the east coast, however, still provide some appreciable moisture around these parts.  Remnants of major Cat 4 Hurricane Willa (might reach Cat 5), will influence the pattern along the southern tier of the U.S and along the E.C.  How many times have we seen tropical systems influence our wx pattern this month??

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Clear skies here with a temp of 28° here at my house with a lot of frost and ice in the bird bath. At GRR they are reporting a temp of 35 and partly cloudy. 

[gabel23]

Just curious. Are both of your avatar pic's from the 09-10 season? Both look like some super deep snow!

Yep, my picture is at my parents house on x-mas day. We had some of the deepest, biggest drifts after the x-mas blizzard that year that I have ever seen in my lifetime! 

[Niko]

Currently at 39F w beautiful, sunny skies. After today's 50s, readings remain in the 40s for highs all week and lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.

[Niko]

If some fell overnight, they were met by the sounds of me snoring. The flakes I saw clearly were mixed in with the heavy squalls yesterday afternoon. 

[Niko]

Nice to have cold air around now, but, lets save this cold for D,J,F pls. MA Nature likes to balance things around.

[CentralNebWeather]

Leaves falling like crazy here even though the wind is maybe only 20 mph. I would say 1/2 the trees in town are now bare and most of the rest will be gone in the next few days. My trees should be bare by tomorrow. Over 3 weeks earlier than last. Does this mean anything, I don’t know.

[Tom]

Leaves falling like crazy here even though the wind is maybe only 20 mph. I would say 1/2 the trees in town are now bare and most of the rest will be gone in the next few days. My trees should be bare by tomorrow. Over 3 weeks earlier than last. Does this mean anything, I don’t know.

After this weekends cold snap, the leaves here are expeditiously changing color and will prob fall off quickly.  Today's high was a delightful 64F with Full sun.  I actually went out on my patio about an hour ago and soaked up some of that sunshine for a little while.  It felt nice to feel the warmth of the sun.