November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like most models show another storm next weekend. Fun times.

[Hawkeye]

We didn't even fall below the low 40s this morning.

[jaster220]

Detroit could be heading for an all time snowiest November on record. DTW is already at 6.0" for the month. If we get 5.8" more from the Sun-Mon system, then, we would break the all time November record snowfall eva, which is 11.8". Unbelievable how snowy this month has been so far and could end up being.

 

From my response to a BC poster on the SMI forum

 

 

Morning AFD still beating the drum for a WNW flow LE follow-on to the storm. You're gold for all-time Nov buddy. I may join your party but It will be in crash fashion. I need a solid synoptic hit to make up for that past couple misses. At least a top-5 should be in play.

 

Top-5 for mby

 

1) 16.2  1966

2) 16.0  1969

3) 14.8  1921

4) 13.5  1971

5) 12.9  1972

 

Not far behind is the 12.5" I measured during the freakish storm 3 yrs ago. Also note that 4 of the 5 were during my youth, thus when I say "It sure seemed like winters were worse way back when I was a kid" this gives numbers to back that up. The pattern was different circa 65-85, and we're getting a taste of it this autumn.

[westMJim]

From my response to a BC poster on the SMI forum

 

 

Morning AFD still beating the drum for a WNW flow LE follow-on to the storm. You're gold for all-time Nov buddy. I may join your party but It will be in crash fashion. I need a solid synoptic hit to make up for that past couple misses. At least a top-5 should be in play.

 

Top-5 for mby

 

1) 16.2  1966

2) 16.0  1969

3) 14.8  1921

4) 13.5  1971

5) 12.9  1972

 

Not far behind is the 12.5" I measured during the freakish storm 3 yrs ago. Also note that 4 of the 5 were during my youth, thus when I say "It sure seemed like winters were worse way back when I was a kid" this gives numbers to back that up. The pattern was different circa 65-85, and we're getting a taste of it this autumn.

OK here are some top 5 snowiest Novembers at several locations across southern lower Michigan

Detroit

1. 1966  11.8
2. 1933   10.6
3. 1932   10.1
4. 1950     9.2
5. 1940     9.1

2018 so far 6.0

Flint

1. 1951   16.2
2. 1966   13.5
3. 1950   12.4
4. 1940   12.1
5. 2015   10.8

2018 so far 6.7

Saginaw

1. 1995   23.0
2. 1966   20.3
3. 1951   17.9
4. 1940   17.0
5. 1933   13.5

2018 so far 8.0

Grand Rapids

1. 2014   31.0
2. 1951    26.9
3. 1991   25.3
4. 2000   23.0
5. 1995   20.8

2018 so far 9.0

Muskegon

1. 1995   25.7
2. 2014   24.5
3. 1951   21.5
4. 1969   20.6
5. 1966   20.3

2018 so far 6.7

Lansing

1. 1921   21.8
2. 1869   18.5
3. 1966   16.8
4. 1951   16.8
5. 1900   16.5

2018 so far 5.2

This just shows you the difference of lake effect can make on snow fall totals.

[westMJim]

At this time here at my house the sun is out and the unofficial reading I have is now up to 51° the last official reading at GRR was 49°

[jaster220]

Sunshine and blue skies were nice - while they lasted all of 6 hrs. Overcast has moved in now.

[gabel23]

Looks like euro showing the same storm next weekend just like the gfs. Hopefully that’s a share the wealth storm for all of us!

[East Dubzz]

Does anyone here have the final NOAA outlook for what November was supposed to be like? I did not look at it, and I’m curious if they were anticipating this well below normal temperature outbreak.

[Niko]

From my response to a BC poster on the SMI forum

 

 

Morning AFD still beating the drum for a WNW flow LE follow-on to the storm. You're gold for all-time Nov buddy. I may join your party but It will be in crash fashion. I need a solid synoptic hit to make up for that past couple misses. At least a top-5 should be in play.

 

Top-5 for mby

 

1) 16.2  1966

2) 16.0  1969

3) 14.8  1921

4) 13.5  1971

5) 12.9  1972

 

Not far behind is the 12.5" I measured during the freakish storm 3 yrs ago. Also note that 4 of the 5 were during my youth, thus when I say "It sure seemed like winters were worse way back when I was a kid" this gives numbers to back that up. The pattern was different circa 65-85, and we're getting a taste of it this autumn.

Thanks buddy...hopefully, my area breaks all time record snowfall for Nov.

[Niko]

Currently, a mild 41F w overcast skies.

[Money]

Models overall are showing a pretty snowy pattern coming up

[james1976]

Hit 40 today for the first time in a long time. 3rd coldest November for Iowa so far.

[jaster220]

Hit 40 today for the first time in a long time. 3rd coldest November for Iowa so far.

 

Marshall yesterday 30F, today about 12:30 it was sunny and 50F. Felt like spring compared to the rest of this month

[Niko]

What a calm, beautiful, evening out there and mild at that. Currently at 37F. So used to cold weather, this seems like a heatwave.

[Tom]

Before I head out to a couple stores and make some last minute exchanges/purchases for more Christmas lighting, I wanted to dig into the long range pattern  With a lot of the attention being focused on what is shaping up to be a major winter storm across the central states, the action over the next couple weeks will stay put across our board.  However, is there a warm cutter lurking???  Could this be the beginning of the LRC cycle #2???  I'm still up in the air on the LRC's cycle length this season but I'm starting to see a signal from the EPS that the following weekends storm may be correlated with the Oct 7th-9th western GL's cutter.  

 

00z EPS Day 9/10 show nearly an exact track from that system in early Oct which developed a SLP out of the 4 corners/TX Pan Handle and tracking through KS/C IA/N WI.  Take a look at the mean SLP of the EPS...and more notably, look at that big ridge near the EC which is exactly what happened back then, except for the NE PAC ridge which is non-existent currently on the model but that may change in future runs.  It's going to be another long week tracking this system and the snow signal for the Plains/Upper MW look much better now and the snow hole may be getting filled in this go-around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lastly, what is happening in the Strat is showing some intriguing signes that by Week 2 of December, the Polar Vortex is going to make its presence and a big time trough may develop across North America and into our sub forum.  I've used these maps to provide a 2-3 week lead time on where the pattern evolution may develop, and this signal is big.  Notice towards the tail end of this graphic the warming across the EC and the deep blues/cold anamolies brewing across Canada and bleeding south.  

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[Niko]

Cloudy and mild w a few showers around. Feels nice outside. Temp at 42F.

[jaster220]

Cloudy and mild w a few showers around. Feels nice outside. Temp at 42F.

 

Haven't been out yet, but my snow appears to be all gone. Oh well, this will be a lot like 07-08 if it gets replace quickly by tomorrow's storm. Surprised you didn't post DTX's write-up in the storm thd? I think things have trended much better for our backyards to see snow overnight Sun-Mon morning. Not sure yet if you'll need that blower, but it could look nice and festive instead of brown.

[Niko]

Haven't been out yet, but my snow appears to be all gone. Oh well, this will be a lot like 07-08 if it gets replace quickly by tomorrow's storm. Surprised you didn't post DTX's write-up in the storm thd? I think things have trended much better for our backyards to see snow overnight Sun-Mon morning. Not sure yet if you'll need that blower, but it could look nice and festive instead of brown.

Same here...all snow gone as well. Not sure if my area will get any snow. It seems like the bulk will stay to my north. I am looking at mainly rain w a changeova to snowshwers w little or no accumulations expected. Idk, tbh, its all a waiting game as models are still trying to get this puzzle solved. I am thinking by later today, we should have a clearer picture.

 

Here is what NOAA thinks:

 

The shortwave in question will be well sampled from the 12z

radiosonde suite. In addition, a secondary PV anomaly digging

through northern British Columbia will be sampled fairly well. As

the strength and speed of this secondary system will impact the

track of the main storm system, this better sampling should allow

the 12z model suite to start honing in on the track of this system.

With this additional information, Winter Storm Watch decisions will

come today this far east into lower Michigan.

 

So, we will see what happens. As for now, places to my north are looking good. Even, your area  looks to score nicely buddy.

[Niko]

Currently, 44F w cloudy and damp conditions.

[jaster220]

Same here...all snow gone as well. Not sure if my area will get any snow. It seems like the bulk will stay to my north. I am looking at mainly rain w a changeova to snowshwers w little or no accumulations expected. Idk, tbh, its all a waiting game as models are still trying to get this puzzle solved. I am thinking by later today, we should have a clearer picture.

 

Here is what NOAA thinks:

 

The shortwave in question will be well sampled from the 12z

radiosonde suite. In addition, a secondary PV anomaly digging

through northern British Columbia will be sampled fairly well. As

the strength and speed of this secondary system will impact the

track of the main storm system, this better sampling should allow

the 12z model suite to start honing in on the track of this system.

With this additional information, Winter Storm Watch decisions will

come today this far east into lower Michigan.

 

So, we will see what happens. As for now, places to my north are looking good. Even, your area  looks to score nicely buddy.

 

A lot will come down to the 12z Euro. If it waivers at all on snowfall amounts across SMI then DTX will likely not go with watches. If it doubles-down on snow amts, I could see them going with watches for all but the far SE counties. basically I-69 cut-off. Gotta take a break from this storm mode tracking to do some stuff. Will be back to see how it looks after the Euro has run. Good luck!

[Andie]

Deadly dull here. High of 75* again today.

No wind, plenty of sun.

 

Front coming through with Highs in the 50’s.

May as well enjoy it while I can.

 

So Guys. What’s the outlook for the Southern Plains ?!

[Minny_Weather]

OAX mentioned the storm potential for next weekend. Pretty uncharacteristic for them.

 

For Lincoln, I'm not holding out hope for that one. Temps are gonna be a major, major issue with that one and it's possible it could just be 100% rain with that one.

[OKwx2k4]

Deadly dull here. High of 75* again today.

No wind, plenty of sun.

 

Front coming through with Highs in the 50’s.

May as well enjoy it while I can.

 

So Guys. What’s the outlook for the Southern Plains ?!

Fairly boring for the time being. Things should get rolling back to the more active/rainy/snowy cold pattern.

[Niko]

A lot will come down to the 12z Euro. If it waivers at all on snowfall amounts across SMI then DTX will likely not go with watches. If it doubles-down on snow amts, I could see them going with watches for all but the far SE counties. basically I-69 cut-off. Gotta take a break from this storm mode tracking to do some stuff. Will be back to see how it looks after the Euro has run. Good luck!

Thanks buddy

[Niko]

Cloudy and dreary all day w temps remaining very nice...in the 40s. This feels so nice. I am now starting to want the 40s to hang around even longer.

[Niko]

Looks like some spotty drizzle is still out there. Temps are holding steady in the low 40s.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm already punting on next week's snow potential high and far. GFS basically loses it, FV3 has the energy near Sioux City, and so does Euro. Euro still gives us accumulating snow but it's being really bullish with moisture right now.

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and temps in the upper 30s.

[St Paul Storm]

Some pretty big differences on the globals this morning but it appears another powerhouse system might be in the works for next weekend. GFS isn’t really playing ball just yet, but the FV3, Euro and GEM all showing something.

[james1976]

Some pretty big differences on the globals this morning but it appears another powerhouse system might be in the works for next weekend. GFS isn’t really playing ball just yet, but the FV3, Euro and GEM all showing something.

GFS is way south with it and warm. How are the other models looking?

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro wants to hit Nebraska next weekend. Looked at it for fun. Who knows what will happen tomorrow let alone next weekend as we just went through with this last storm. Maybe this hits those missed by this storm.

[Niko]

Current conditions are mostly cloudy and chilly w temps at 40F.

[jaster220]

Current conditions are mostly cloudy and chilly w temps at 40F.

 

Nice that it dried out from yesterday's rain. Not a fan of snowstorms when there are large puddles everywhere. The temp down around 40F and the lowering skies with a NE breeze kicking up really feels "stormy"

[Clinton]

Euro wants to hit Nebraska next weekend. Looked at it for fun. Who knows what will happen tomorrow let alone next weekend as we just went through with this last storm. Maybe this hits those missed by this storm.

I think the Euro is right, Nebraska and the northern half of Iowa should get hit.  Then on the 6th we should get some serious artic air and a storm riding over the top of it.  I'm looking for some big impacts from that.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think the Euro is right, Nebraska and the northern half of Iowa should get hit. Then on the 6th we should get some serious artic air and a storm riding over the top of it. I'm looking for some big impacts from that.

NWS Hastings already mentioning this but with the usual differences in models, GFS vs Euro. They disagree, I’m shocked. Sarcasm.

 

The system digging into the southwest United States later in the

week will be our next concern by Friday night into Saturday. The

GFS solution is warmer and farther south, with perhaps some rain

or rain/snow combo in our KS counties. A much more concerning

ECMWF solution brings much higher qpf and colder temps for another

potential winter storm. To say the least, confidence is not high

in this case, but something to keep an eye on.

[Niko]

Nice that it dried out from yesterday's rain. Not a fan of snowstorms when there are large puddles everywhere. The temp down around 40F and the lowering skies with a NE breeze kicking up really feels "stormy"

Indeed buddy...you can actually feel that a Winterstorm is coming

[Minny_Weather]

I think the Euro is right, Nebraska and the northern half of Iowa should get hit.  Then on the 6th we should get some serious artic air and a storm riding over the top of it.  I'm looking for some big impacts from that.

My only issue with that is that it has "storm that fizzles out on models" written all over it. Even if it doesn't, it's pretty tight and can easily significantly shift. I'm not looking forward to it till we hit the weekend.

[Niko]

Temps are already dropping. Currently at 38F w cloudy skies and breezy conditions.

[jaster220]

Temps are already dropping. Currently at 38F w cloudy skies and breezy conditions.

 

Baro down to 29.77 hg and falling..

[Niko]

Baro down to 29.77 hg and falling..

Oh yeah....this thing is a beast