November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

Anyone thinking the next storm will be north is fooling themselves. Split flow pattern with a very strong southern stream means very little chance of anything north. Unless the setup changes, lock in the southern solutions. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it doesn’t look likely atm

And then the 12z GFS bumps the stream north. Right on cue.

[james1976]

GFS staying south and no cold air. All rain.

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah south with the weekend system then north with a system early next week. Should have clarified.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

All models are different. This should be fun lol

[Minny_Weather]

And then the 12z GFS bumps the stream north. Right on cue.

If we learned anything from this last system it's that models don't know s**t.

 

Take my forecast instead! 14" for Southeast Lincoln. Lock it in.

[james1976]

Euro has been fairly solid lately. I'd ride that regardless of who's backyard it dumps on.

[bud2380]

Canadian brings the weekend system right through Iowa.

[CentralNebWeather]

Sure looks like places that were dumped on will have to deal with rain this weekend.  That would not be ideal.  It sort of looks like the 2nd storm would have more cold air to look at but that is a week away.  I will keep looking at the Euro for trends.

[Niko]

Cloudy and windy w temps near 35F. A few snowshowers from time to time.

[Money]

Gfs FV3 crushes Iowa

[hlcater]

Gfs FV3 crushes Iowa

Temps are super marginal. 32-34

[james1976]

Temps are super marginal. 32-34

Great. Hopefully the column cools if we do get marginal ground temps.

[james1976]

Canadian brings the weekend system right through Iowa.

What are temps like?

[Niko]

Just had a wind gust of 31 mph..sustained at 22. WCF in the 20s.

[Tony]

Great. Hopefully the column cools if we do get marginal ground temps.

So far the trend in November has been snow even with marginal temps so maybe this will continue going forward.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS brings 3" of low ratio slop here this weekend. 

[Money]

Euro is a rain storm

[james1976]

Great

[GDR]

Heavy rain for northern half of iowa

[St Paul Storm]

Crazy path it takes from 120 to 144. It’s like it hits a brick wall and moves due north.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro shows what FV3 was showing yesterday. The part of South Dakota that nobody lives in gets nailed, and everywhere South of there gets rain. Low goes right over St. Joe, which is a usually perfect track for here.

[james1976]

Euro shows what FV3 was showing yesterday. The part of South Dakota that nobody lives in gets nailed, and everywhere South of there gets rain. Low goes right over St. Joe, which is a usually perfect track for here.

Haha that made me laugh

[Minny_Weather]

GFS opens up the floodgates of cold at the end of the run. Gee, it'd sure be nice if we had some snow on the ground to prepare for that. I wonder where we could get some snow?

[james1976]

A rain storm to open December. Not what i ordered lol.

[East Dubzz]

Well, looks like we have something to track, I guess.

[St Paul Storm]

Actually the Euro isn’t too bad since it pulls down so much cold air as it moves in. So we have a Dakotas/W MN snowstorm on the Euro, a south rainstorm on the GFS and something in between on the GEM.

[bud2380]

According to weather.us the euro shows almost 3.5” qpf of s ow in northern South Dakota from the weekend storm.

[Grizzcoat]

 Don't discount the UKIE- it's a solid model that didn't flip flop on previous system. UKMET is way south at 120-- 

[Minny_Weather]

The amounts shown on that last run makes me wanna write off the last Euro run as cuckoo for cocoa puffs. 30" for Northeastern SD. The odd track the SLP takes isn't doing my skepticism any favors.

[East Dubzz]

Was wondering how the Euro did on the last storm this far out, and man it seemed to get it pretty dang close. Hard to not trust that model.

[Minny_Weather]

Just realized we're discussing a December storm in a November thread, so I went ahead and fired up a December thread. 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1900-december-2018-observations-and-discussion/

[westMJim]

The finial snow fall total here for this event at my house is 5.5" with a range of less than 1" to drifts of 6.8" This was a very wet snow so there was a lot of compacting. Will see what the official snow fall was at GRR.  At the airport they reported 0.2" of snow fall before midnight. The current temperature here is 32° with cloudy skies'

[jcwxguy]

Was wondering how the Euro did on the last storm this far out, and man it seemed to get it pretty dang close. Hard to not trust that model.

it was about 30-40 miles too far north

[Stacsh]

Looks like the north country will be favored with the next system. Just not a lot of cold air around next weekend.

[Niko]

Cloudy and wind w snowshwers around. A coating out there, if that. Temp at 33F.

[Niko]

Looks like the north country will be favored with the next system. Just not a lot of cold air around next weekend.

Yup. My temps are in the 40s, but it does trend colder early next week and very cold by weeks end.

[Niko]

Currently at 6.5" snowfall for the month of November.  Hopefully, my all time record breaks which is 11.5". We will see.

[Andie]

Fairly boring for the time being. Things should get rolling back to the more active/rainy/snowy cold pattern.

Not looking forward o it too soon. Still have a repair due to the heating system. I'm on emergency heat right now and not a happy camper but so glad I don't live North.

 

So,...what's the outlook for the Southern Plains timing wise and weather wise ??

[jcwxguy]

Where is the 18z Euro available?

[jaster220]

Where is the 18z Euro available?

 

weather.us and/or a pay site as I understand it.