November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

#prayforstorms

 

I'd like an 1996 redux. That year was awesome, to be honest. Heavy rain in October (4.44 inches in PDX in 24-hours), heavy rain in November (wettest calendar day for PDX), and we all know what happened in December!

[Deweydog]

Sort of a strange cover. It is barely discernible from the original.

Rivers ain't got it. He tries, but it doesn't work.

[jakeinthevalley]

We just had a bunch of tornados...

 

Were you able to get DOROTHY IV in position for any of them?

I heard the pack was too light on the first three attempts

[MossMan]

That song is kool again thanks to WEEZER!

Weird Al in the video makes it awesome!

[ShawniganLake]

I like that people are able to talk about January 1950 like it actually has a chance of happening again in our lifetime

[MossMan]

I like that people are able to talk about January 1950 like it actually has a chance of happening again in our lifetime

It’s the weather...you just never know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only .11 here today.   

 

Up to 1.34" now here. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 1.34" now here. 

 

The pattern change has begun... storms are coming in farther south and offshore flow is slowly developing up here.    The rain bands from today's system really weakened as they moved north.   Tomorrow will be like that down there and it will be totally dry up here.     Although the Friday system will behave more like today's system with a more northerly track. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like that people are able to talk about January 1950 like it actually has a chance of happening again in our lifetime

 

I heard it almost happened again in 2005. Seriously though, you never know. Many places in the central and eastern part of the US have set snow records in the past decade. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Personally I thought December 2008 left a lot on the table. In the cold department it really underachieved regionally and that early January period could have been a lot better with a few tweaks, as well as late January. That winter was very close to something truly great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS much warmer for early next week. 

[ShawniganLake]

I heard it almost happened again in 2005. Seriously though, you never know. Many places in the central and eastern part of the US have set snow records in the past decade.

I would think snow records are much more achievable here than 1950 type of sustained cold

[Deweydog]

Personally I thought December 2008 left a lot on the table. In the cold department it really underachieved regionally and that early January period could have been a lot better with a few tweaks, as well as late January. That winter was very close to something truly great.

I don't think 850mb ever dropped below zero Celsius the whole month.

[Timmy Supercell]

I like that people are able to talk about January 1950 like it actually has a chance of happening again in our lifetime

 

I don't think anyone today actually thought something like Jan 1950 could happen this winter. 

 

We like to bring up things from the past merely as records to look back to. And they do sound like nice ideas.

 

And sometimes surprises happen. Like when I got half my seasonal average in just a day, or Medford beating a multi-decade 24 hour snow record first week of 2017.

[BLI snowman]

I would think snow records are much more achievable here than 1950 type of sustained cold

 

It's been 28 years since our last really regionally top tier cold airmass. No precedent for a stretch like that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would think snow records are much more achievable here than 1950 type of sustained cold

 

Yeah I see that. Though January 1950 is only the #3 coldest January on record for Salem. January 1930 was about 2F colder, I don't think we'll ever see another month with an average low in the teens at SLE. 

[Jesse]

[High Desert Mat!]

00z is a major outlier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's been 28 years since our last really regionally top tier cold airmass. No precedent for a stretch like that.

 

What is your criteria for that? December 1998 would have to be close.

[Requiem]

The GFS looks painful

 

As in painfully boring. By this time last year (which was kind of a dud in terms of real stormy weather) we’d already had a decent storm. At least the models most other times showed something fun down the line.

[MossMan]

00z is a major outlier.

Hopefully. Or El Niño has kicked in and winter is over.

[BLI snowman]

What is your criteria for that? December 1998 would have to be close.

 

I'd say widespread highs below 20 and/or lows below 5. In the last century that would probably include 12/90, 2/89, 12/83, 12/78, 12/72, 12/68, 12/64, 1/57, 1/50 (*2), 1/43, 1/35, 1/30, 12/24, 12/19.

 

Pretty consistently occurred every 5-8 years before the abrupt halt. And even if you wanted to include 12/98, that's now 20 years ago and fell neatly in the expected window. Pretty crazy.

[Requiem]

Hopefully. Or El Niño has kicked in and winter is over.

I hope not. Nothing fun has even happened weather-wise this fall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I hope not. Nothing fun has even happened weather-wise this fall.

 

Has there been a recorded cold season in Oregon without a significant storm or thicknesses dropping below 528?

[TT-SEA]

So pretty good bet the blob is going to die with all this GOA troughing right?

 

One week later... the answer appears to be no.     Might not matter for our weather though.   

 

[Requiem]

Has there been a recorded cold season in Oregon without a significant storm or thicknesses dropping below 528?

Ugh, I hope not. But if any season would do it it would probably be this one right here. Feels like the kind of troll season to do so. I hope I’m somehow goading this winter to prove all the naysayers wrong!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd say widespread highs below 20 and/or lows below 5. In the last century that would probably include 12/90, 2/89, 12/83, 12/78, 12/72, 12/68, 12/64, 1/57, 1/50 (*2), 1/43, 1/35, 1/30, 12/24, 12/19.

 

Pretty consistently occurred every 5-8 years before the abrupt halt. And even if you wanted to include 12/98, that's now 20 years ago and fell neatly in the expected window. Pretty crazy.

 

I would assume January 1909 would be on that list too? 

 

How come places in Central and Eastern Oregon for instance can still pull off big events. November 2014 and December 2013 came close or set many daily and monthly records over there. Also December and January 2016/17 rank pretty high on the list of cold and snowy months for a lot of locations over there.

[TT-SEA]

Has there been a recorded cold season in Oregon without a significant storm or thicknesses dropping below 528?

 

 

I have heard some horror stories about 2002-03.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugh, I hope not. But if any season would do it it would probably be this one right here. Feels like the kind of troll season to do so. I hope I’m somehow goading this winter to prove all the naysayers wrong!

 

Thickness will probably get close to 528 this weekend. And its not even December yet, in 2016 I hadn't even had a freeze at this point. I think it was the warmest November on record. And things turned out okay, so lets turn the weenie down a notch until at least after the holidays.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have heard some horror stories about 2002-03.  

 

Though the state record low for October was set in 2002. 13 at Seneca. I think LaPine hit -10 too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 1935 must have been more north based? I saw it snowed quite a bit at SLE, but the temps don't look like they were exceptionally cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the long range GFS is way better than I was expecting after reading the comments on here. Even gives me my first snow on the 12th a few hours after I fly out.

[MossMan]

Wow the long range GFS is way better than I was expecting after reading the comments on here. Even gives me my first snow on the 12th a few hours after I fly out.

Seems like it always happens when you are flying out!

[TT-SEA]

Wow the long range GFS is way better than I was expecting after reading the comments on here. Even gives me my first snow on the 12th a few hours after I fly out.

 

Those comments were made when it was not finished running... specifically as next week was coming out.     

 

It gets better after 240 hours.

[Front Ranger]

Sort of a strange cover. It is barely discernible from the original.

 

I agree. Was pretty disappointed when I heard it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like it always happens when you are flying out!

 

It kind of does!

[Front Ranger]

Personally I thought December 2008 left a lot on the table. In the cold department it really underachieved regionally and that early January period could have been a lot better with a few tweaks, as well as late January. That winter was very close to something truly great.

 

It was a more well-rounded winter further north. The Puget Sound had snow events in January, February and March that year. And obviously December. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 is colder for next week.

[El_Nina]

FV3 is colder for next week.

Mixed signals coming from you this evening.

[BLI snowman]

I would assume January 1909 would be on that list too? 

 

How come places in Central and Eastern Oregon for instance can still pull off big events. November 2014 and December 2013 came close or set many daily and monthly records over there. Also December and January 2016/17 rank pretty high on the list of cold and snowy months for a lot of locations over there.

 

For sure.  

 

I think being in a more borderline climate zone probably makes a small difference in terms of the waning record cold propensity, since we have fewer opportunities to begin with.  December 2013, January 2004, and late January/early February 1996 were all legitimately top tier for various places east of the Cascades. And a winter like 2008-09 set the seasonal snowfall record at Spokane. The last few decades have still been pretty lame in eastern WA/OR, just not as much so.