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November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Timmy Supercell

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Kind of a mess of a pattern. Feels like something might give at some point.

But we could be flirting with snow this weekend according to NWS Seattle!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Well, lets hope I was correct with the earlier model teases being premature. 2nd half of December is preferred in my opinion anyways

 

2nd half of December is definitely the most preferred time.   I actually think it might be lining up as well.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS ensembles are pretty fugly in the mid-long range.

Why am I not surprised :(

 

I literally just want one good storm and I’ll be satisfied

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Even if this ends up being a sh*t winter, it's going to be far more enjoyable discussing it with y'all rather than wallowing in ignorance like back in 2002-03.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Even if this ends up being a sh*t winter, it's going to be far more enjoyable discussing it with y'all rather than wallowing in ignorance like back in 2002-03.

Truth!

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived?

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpg

 

Someone call Mark to polish the forks.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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MLK?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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http://i65.tinypic.com/2zj056o.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Your temp? 

 

40 now, it warmed a bit. Not gonna snow until Friday here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hope the models show something fun overnight.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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FWIW, if Flatiron’s fat squirrel index is any indication, this is gonna be the coldest, snowiest winter of all eternity here.

 

I’ve never seen such rampant obesity in the rodent community. :lol:

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived?

 

Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpg

It’s a temporary pattern (this is the result of the poleward +AAM propagation I’d mentioned several weeks ago) which will eventually cycle out and retrograde. I’m not sure it will have much staying power at all, tbh. If we pull off a late December SSW, then it will certainly get the boot. Maybe it lasts for a week or two at worst?

 

And while it’s a warm pattern nationwide, can actually be a snowy pattern in the inter-mountain SW US (and here as well, lol) if there’s a STJ present. So I’m not too worried about it.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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That's the thing. If a Dec 2013 can happen in Eugene, or a 25/14 can happen at SEA before Thanksgiving (2010), or any number of the cold records we've seen occur east of the mountains the past few year can happen, I absolutely believe something along the lines of December 1990 can occur again.

 

Just have to get the right pattern at the right time. And this is the type of year (extreme blockiness) where it would be foolish to rule anything out.

I completely agree with this.

 

Houston, TX just saw its earliest measurable snowfall on record a few weeks ago. That arctic blast east of the Rockies in February 2015 broke a few cities’ all time *January* lows. Locally speaking, we recorded our latest ever subzero low in March 2014 (which also broke the record low for the month), and we’ve shattered every snowfall statistic in the books during the last decade alone.

 

Some other notable cases, for the NH as a whole.

 

- Earliest manifestation of -40C @ 500mb ever recorded in October of 2018, near Northern Greenland. Previous record was set in 1992, and Pinatubo really helped that one along.

 

- Latest ever occurrence of sub -40C 850mb temps in Alberta in March 2017 (down to -45C, depending on dataset choice).

 

- Longest ever persistence of sub -40C in NE Canada last February (9 days, bottoming out at -47C depending on dataset choice).

 

So it’s not like this stuff can’t happen anymore. It’s been happening quite frequently as of late.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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So, long story short, a favorable pattern should be able to pull off similar winter records in the Pac NW. The problem is that such patterns have been increasingly sporadic since the 1970s, and have been downright rare since 1998, with even the best patterns failing to structurally resemble those from the 19th century/early-mid 20th century.

 

For whatever reason, the Pacific circulation seems to have changed a lot over the last century (especially over the last 50yrs). The change in the Hadley/Walker system over the subtropical WPAC has been particularly drastic. There appears to be a long term (multi-century) cycle in the structure/seasonality of the West-Pacific warm pool. It’s very apparent in the paleo data. And it’s a very stable cycle...when it flips modes it largely stays in the new state with very little instability until it flips back.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Some snow out on the lonely country of SE Oregon/Northern Nevada. 

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Nevada%20State%20Line%20W_pid2786.JPG?rand=1543510581110

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Warner%20Mtn%20Summit_pid2380.JPG?rand=1543510651864

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Paisley_pid2415.JPG?rand=1543510681092

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some snow out on the lonely country of SE Oregon/Northern Nevada. 

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Nevada%20State%20Line%20W_pid2786.JPG?rand=1543510581110

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Warner%20Mtn%20Summit_pid2380.JPG?rand=1543510651864

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Paisley_pid2415.JPG?rand=1543510681092

 

 

SE Oregon and northern California mountains have actually been doing pretty good so far this season.  This map is before this recent dumping that is still going on now over there.west_swepctnormal_update.png

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