MossMan Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Kind of a mess of a pattern. Feels like something might give at some point.But we could be flirting with snow this weekend according to NWS Seattle! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Well, lets hope I was correct with the earlier model teases being premature. 2nd half of December is preferred in my opinion anyways 2nd half of December is definitely the most preferred time. I actually think it might be lining up as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Total snow over the next 10 days per 00Z ECMWF... 00Z run brings in a system on day 9... with snow in the mountains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 00z GFS ensembles are pretty fugly in the mid-long range.Why am I not surprised I literally just want one good storm and I’ll be satisfied Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 But we could be flirting with snow this weekend according to NWS Seattle!Nope... they will be wrong Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Even if this ends up being a sh*t winter, it's going to be far more enjoyable discussing it with y'all rather than wallowing in ignorance like back in 2002-03. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Even if this ends up being a sh*t winter, it's going to be far more enjoyable discussing it with y'all rather than wallowing in ignorance like back in 2002-03.Truth! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpg Someone call Mark to polish the forks. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpgPattern reset! Probably for the best. Maybe the next round if blocking will be more favourable for the west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 MLK? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 MLK?+1,000,000,000. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Pattern reset! Probably for the best. Maybe the next round if blocking will be more favourable for the westThe only problem with that is by the time there's a reset sun angles will be getting higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 MLK?Won't work for us north of the 49th we don't have a MLK day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpgI wouldn't mind going out to some holiday party's in a t shirt and shorts might be rather invigorating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpgLol, he's using 360 hour maps as the example and actually being serious..... That's funny!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Won't work for us north of the 49th we don't have a MLK day. Racist weenies!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Racist weenies!!!Sorry, it might work if there's enough snow to make it a snow day up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 We've had evening showers up here in Chilliwack BC a couple of moderate ones surprisingly, overall a dank and dark day and a high of 48f it's currently 44f. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Why am I not surprised I literally just want one good storm and I’ll be satisfied You've had a good run down in Portland, sure wouldn't know it based off of your posts though 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 http://i65.tinypic.com/2zj056o.jpg 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 http://i65.tinypic.com/2zj056o.jpg Your temp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Your temp? 40 now, it warmed a bit. Not gonna snow until Friday here. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Hope the models show something fun overnight. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 40 now, it warmed a bit. Not gonna snow until Friday here. Looks nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 White Christmas on the 06z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 The PV takes a pretty good beating on the past few GFS runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 FWIW, if Flatiron’s fat squirrel index is any indication, this is gonna be the coldest, snowiest winter of all eternity here. I’ve never seen such rampant obesity in the rodent community. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not looking good according to Mr. Ventrice. Hopefully short lived? Screenshot_20181128-233509_Twitter.jpgIt’s a temporary pattern (this is the result of the poleward +AAM propagation I’d mentioned several weeks ago) which will eventually cycle out and retrograde. I’m not sure it will have much staying power at all, tbh. If we pull off a late December SSW, then it will certainly get the boot. Maybe it lasts for a week or two at worst? And while it’s a warm pattern nationwide, can actually be a snowy pattern in the inter-mountain SW US (and here as well, lol) if there’s a STJ present. So I’m not too worried about it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 That's the thing. If a Dec 2013 can happen in Eugene, or a 25/14 can happen at SEA before Thanksgiving (2010), or any number of the cold records we've seen occur east of the mountains the past few year can happen, I absolutely believe something along the lines of December 1990 can occur again. Just have to get the right pattern at the right time. And this is the type of year (extreme blockiness) where it would be foolish to rule anything out.I completely agree with this. Houston, TX just saw its earliest measurable snowfall on record a few weeks ago. That arctic blast east of the Rockies in February 2015 broke a few cities’ all time *January* lows. Locally speaking, we recorded our latest ever subzero low in March 2014 (which also broke the record low for the month), and we’ve shattered every snowfall statistic in the books during the last decade alone. Some other notable cases, for the NH as a whole. - Earliest manifestation of -40C @ 500mb ever recorded in October of 2018, near Northern Greenland. Previous record was set in 1992, and Pinatubo really helped that one along. - Latest ever occurrence of sub -40C 850mb temps in Alberta in March 2017 (down to -45C, depending on dataset choice). - Longest ever persistence of sub -40C in NE Canada last February (9 days, bottoming out at -47C depending on dataset choice). So it’s not like this stuff can’t happen anymore. It’s been happening quite frequently as of late. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 So, long story short, a favorable pattern should be able to pull off similar winter records in the Pac NW. The problem is that such patterns have been increasingly sporadic since the 1970s, and have been downright rare since 1998, with even the best patterns failing to structurally resemble those from the 19th century/early-mid 20th century. For whatever reason, the Pacific circulation seems to have changed a lot over the last century (especially over the last 50yrs). The change in the Hadley/Walker system over the subtropical WPAC has been particularly drastic. There appears to be a long term (multi-century) cycle in the structure/seasonality of the West-Pacific warm pool. It’s very apparent in the paleo data. And it’s a very stable cycle...when it flips modes it largely stays in the new state with very little instability until it flips back. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 00Z EPS: 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Some snow out on the lonely country of SE Oregon/Northern Nevada. http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Nevada%20State%20Line%20W_pid2786.JPG?rand=1543510581110 http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Warner%20Mtn%20Summit_pid2380.JPG?rand=1543510651864 http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Paisley_pid2415.JPG?rand=1543510681092 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Some snow out on the lonely country of SE Oregon/Northern Nevada. http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Nevada%20State%20Line%20W_pid2786.JPG?rand=1543510581110 http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Warner%20Mtn%20Summit_pid2380.JPG?rand=1543510651864 http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Paisley_pid2415.JPG?rand=1543510681092 SE Oregon and northern California mountains have actually been doing pretty good so far this season. This map is before this recent dumping that is still going on now over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Meh. Wet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Some snow out on the lonely country of SE Oregon/Northern Nevada. http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE140%20at%20Nevada%20State%20Line%20W_pid2786.JPG?rand=1543510581110 This is a magical place of quiet and stillness , I need to go there now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Wet!White would be better. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 White would be better.Racist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Wet! Not so much... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not so much... Nice frame. I forgot that a trough along the coast is usually a bone dry pattern in December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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