james1976 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 That's a ballsy call for DMX but also a great "view" into how they forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Odds looking better for N IL to see at least 4" or more of snow....   1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 SREF snow total mean and total spread nudged N with recent 9Z runs, though amounts down slightly. compare/contrast -http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 I've been guilty of this before I know, but now that I'm in the spectator seat for a storm in Nebraska, I fail to see the point of calling a storm cancel when there's one bad suite of models. It's still 2 days out and the very sudden jump South looked kinda suspicious to me. Of course next time there's a storm potential and I'm actually in Nebraska for it, I'll probably ignore what I just said. As for OAX issuing the watch, they've been really paranoid about amounts since they flopped the 10/14 storm. Since then, they've been overforecasting amounts. I will say it's a nice break from the conservative/snowlover76 BS they usually pull. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 It’s been over a 1,000 days since KC metro had a warning. Time will tell! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 SREF snow total mean and total spread nudged N with recent 9Z runs, though amounts down slightly. compare/contrast -http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=areaThis a neat site...thanks Grizz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 It’s been over a 1,000 days since KC metro had a warning. Time will tell! That is about to end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 This a neat site...thanks Grizz!Some of us learned the old school way-- before TT and PV and most others you had to use the GOVT site for GFS,ETA and NGM-- anyone else member the Not Good Model?? Actually was OK inside 24 hours for snow events. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Odd how the Ukie runs the hvy precip all across SMI but Euro says "no" keep it south of the border!Still, not bad at all. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAM coming in stronger through hr30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 The SLP appears to be in almost exactly the same location at HR 48 and just 1mb weaker. However, the snow shield is further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAM went back south again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAM went back south again.Snow amounts are less widespread than the 06z GFS, but the band of heavy snow actually has a very similar placement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Based on the setup it seems the GFS is going to have the last laugh. Sigh oh well I guess there will be more this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Based on the setup it seems the GFS is going to have the last laugh. Sigh oh well I guess there will be more this yearDes Moines is still not buying the GFS but we'll see. They are actually taking the FV3 over the GFS op......for now anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Even that fv3 run is south. The original GFS started that trend. The current run is to far south but the trend it started lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Was hoping for a continued north trend today, as I believe the storm is started to come on shore and be sampled more. NAM obviously didn’t provide that, so let’s see what the rest of the models have to offer. If they all trend slightly south again, that would about wrap up my hopes for getting in the sweet spot on this one. Hopefully the NAM was just off it’s rocker for a run, but we’ll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Even that fv3 run is south. The original GFS started that trend. The current run is to far south but the trend it started lolLatest fv3 came back north a touch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Latest fv3 came back north a touchYup. I’m hoping to see that trend continue on this run, as all the models this morning seemed to be going north slightly against until the 12z NAM. Still plenty of time for this to shift, but a turn back south again would be rather discouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yup. I’m hoping to see that trend continue on this run, as all the models this morning seemed to be going north slightly against until the 12z NAM. Still plenty of time for this to shift, but a turn back south again would be rather discouraging.Yeah, getting late in the game for any south trends! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 ICON south as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 ICON south as well.But about the same as the 06z run, and still further north than the 00z run. So not a south movement in that, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yeah fv3 is a touch north but sadly at this point I'm not holding my breath. Happens every time. I get super pumped for a storm and nothing. Lol. I should add all the local forecasters are going 2-3 and oax is locked into 3-4 for Omaha metro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z NAM...KC to Chi warning snows....@ Clinton, your call from a couple days ago may starting to look good buddy... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 The ICON actually brings the snow shield a little further NW in southern Iowa, but the track is more easterly and doesn’t turn as far north once it gets into Missouri / Illinois. Compare the last three runs of the ICON, though, and you’ll see a definitely shift north in southern iowa. GFS, ICON, and NAM actually seem like they’re in pretty decent agreement on the 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 The ICON actually brings the snow shield a little further NW in southern Iowa, but the track is more easterly and doesn’t turn as far north once it gets into Missouri / Illinois. Compare the last three runs of the ICON, though, and you’ll see a definitely shift north in southern iowa.Id assume that it’s probably a result of lesser phasing. The more phased solutions are the ones that hook more NWward earlier. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4")   Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z GFS up and running... let’s see what it gives us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Could be wrong, but looks to be coming in slightly north.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Gfs looks North. But I’m also tailgating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Gfs looks North. But I’m also tailgating.It definitely is through HR 42. These next few frames will be very telling.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 GFS is north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Definitely back north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Oh yeah... this run is definitely further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 I’m not surprised. This seems to always happen when storms do a late southern trend. End up back further north in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Oh man, liking this run. Let’s just forgot about the ICON & NAM, shift this maybe 30 miles north, and then go ahead and lock it in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Much better phase on the GFS...stronger/juicier solution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 I’m not surprised. This seems to always happen when storms do a late southern trend. End up back further north in the end.That’s what I was thinking was gonna happen until the NAM went way south. Hopefully that was just a bad run, though.  The swath of heavier snow seems a little more robust on this run as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 Wow....how much further north is that from thr 6z run??? Crazy. Almost puts me in the 6" range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2018 Report Share Posted November 23, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112312/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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