CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 GFS definitely sticking to its guns. It crazy to see the amount of moisture with this stormYep. Wants to cut hard northeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro Weeklies not backing down...Ol' Man Winter returns with a vengeance post Christmas storm and all through Jan (end of run)....this could end up being an epic month for cold and snow. I bet the GL's will be on fire with LES due to the warmth we are having this month. Blocking and an active STJ....looks interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro Weeklies not backing down...Ol' Man Winter returns with a vengeance post Christmas storm and all through Jan (end of run)....this could end up being an epic month for cold and snow. I bet the GL's will be on fire with LES due to the warmth we are having this month. Blocking and an active STJ....looks interesting...I’ll believe it when I see it lol. Basically models said same thing in November about December. Looking through the November discussion. Did not materialize. El Niño controlling the pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Fv3 caved, but it that yesterday on the 18z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 There is now talk that the impending SSW event to be a possible record setting one. Last year, we set records in the Strat in mid/late Feb and we know what happened in Mar/Apr. Can you imagine what's on the table if this comes close to what the models are predicting for Jan/Feb? I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April. Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Temp at 39 w rain. Very raw evening. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Going to cool off all the way down to only 5 degrees above normal Brrrr. Then we spike back up to 10-15 degrees above normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Going to cool off all the way down to only 5 degrees above normal Brrrr. Then we spike back up to 10-15 degrees above normal.Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes Pretty yawn-worthy stretch. Usually happens when the PV goes to the dark side, lol. See 11-12 for the poster child scenario Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes Huh?? According to our new GRR Met, this is exciting stuff. Dude musta come from Death Valley office or something. Idk - The active pattern will continue through the end of the year...Stay up to date on the forecast if traveling anywhere across thecountry! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 For the record, I have a "non-zero" chance of seeing and possibly even measuring SNOW sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. Ofc, I'll be busy traveling to Chicago-land in the evening so I may not even get to experience it if it does happen Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April. Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! Depends on your local I guess. Areas just to our west a d north got pounded with winter storms while we just missed out. My thoughts are that it will have a much more impactful effect during the heart of the winter months (Jan-Feb) instead of Spring months last year (Mar-Apr). I'm still just a bit worried about suppression as we get deeper into Jan and missing out on some monsters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April. Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! I thought I remembered being pretty pissed, because dec, jan, and feb were all pretty well below average snowfall, then we got a lot of snow in March that didn't last very long, but was enough to pad stats and make it look like last winter wasn't so bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Huh?? According to our new GRR Met, this is exciting stuff. Dude musta come from Death Valley office or something. Idk Wish I knew what he took..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Lol, calmed down real good here. Wonder why? 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 00z GFS way different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS way different, further south, and weaker. Wow. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS throwing a change up. Looks weaker but colder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Wow. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 That is crazy dip south. What is that about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GEM went south too. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GEM not that much better than the GFS. Whoops. There goes the consistency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS throwing a wrench into the pattern saying "hey we want to throw in another system after this one" Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Need to dial back the snow magnet Tom lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 And the ICON is way nw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Well the team cage match appears to have turned into a free-for-all. This is going to be a fun few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Gfs ensembles shifted way south also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 00z FV3-GFS is as most model runs have been, strong and nw, very different than the 00z GFS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Fv3 closer to the icon and all the others went south well this is interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Fv3 also has a new years day storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Fv3 also has a new years day stormThat storm looks awesome for here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Honestly, the next "pattern change" isn't really all too impressive. Major improvement over what we have now, yes, but it basically brings us from way above normal to near normal for a couple days, then back to slightly above normal. Whoopie. We need a pattern change within a pattern change if we want anything that resembles Winter and not March. Let's get the MJO on our side. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Probably safe to say the GFS and GEM are on drugs. The euro just came in with a far nw track. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 EURO went even more north lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS came back north but still south of the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Happy Winter Solstice day! Boy, the 00z EPS and 00z GEFS have decidedly trended away from each other...clearly, the GEFS are much farther S and E and quite weaker overall. As much as I hate to say it, I'd be rooting for the EPS as we most certainly need to build up a deep snow pack up north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 My goodness, are both the EPS/GEFS increasingly snowier/wintry to close out the month and open up January. What a beauty of a pattern shaping up...New Year's plans anyone??? This is going to be our next storm to track following the 26th-28th system and right on schedule. Fits the LRC and BSR like a glove.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 My goodness, are both the EPS/GEFS increasingly snowier/wintry to close out the month and open up January. What a beauty of a pattern shaping up...New Year's plans anyone??? This is going to be our next storm to track following the 26th-28th system and right on schedule. Fits the LRC and BSR like a glove.... As the late Harry Carey would say, “holy cow” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 A good read from MPX this morning about the GFS and GEM:The GFS and Canadian appear to have shifted so far south due to amore progressive northern flow. This flow essentially orphans thecyclone and allows it to take a more easterly route than anortheasterly route. In addition, these models develop the surfacecyclone underneath or even east of the mid and upper level jetstreaks, as opposed to near the left exit regions which would be amore meteorologically-sound result. For these reasons, the GFS andCanadian were largely ignored for this forecast cycle. The ECMWFis probably too far north as well, but it at least has somecontinuity with itself. The FV3 (GFS parallel) has been by far themost consistent, tracking the surface low northeast across Iowafor each of its last 10 consecutive runs. This also fits nearlyin the center of the large envelope. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just like last year, when the record setting SSW event took place, the AO/NAO crashed which lead to extreme cold in Europe and eventually the U.S. We also saw a massive Scandinavian Ridge which unleashed the "Fridge" and created a prime setup to Split the Polar Vortex. This year, it's setting up shop once again... Of late, models are beginning to show signs of a dramatic -NAO and a Greenland Block, set to rock, as we flip the calendar into 2019. Nice signal for a sweet looking west-based Greenland block which fits the LRC as to the placement of the blocking that has developed in LRC cycle # 1. West-based Greenland Blocks favor our sub forum a lot better than an East-based block. This is setting up to be a pattern we have not seen in a while. To add to the favorable pattern that is poised to set up across our sub heading into Week 2, the SOI still not budging and maintaining in the (+) territory which continues to lead me to believe the SER should stay put through at least the early part of January. The SST's have warmed quite a bit over the last 2 weeks near S. America. Lastly, it is now starting to look like we may in fact have a Polar Vortex Split which has been the case over the last number of years. Earlier on, models were indicating more of a displacement but recent trends are showing otherwise. How many times have we seen maps like these??? Those gleaming red "eye"s are showing up again....it's like the wx maps are hinting us that Ol' Man Winter is coming back....with a vengeance...not to be denied his abrupt return! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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