December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Both the GFS and GFS-FV3 showing a New Years storm.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122218/240/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

Special weather statement issued for a surprise batch of moderate snow. Visibility down to 3/4 mi right now. Might sneak in a white Christmas after all of this holds together for a bit.

[bud2380]

Christmas AM snows showing up on the NAM, Euro Andy canadian GFS with rain

[Tom]

I'm starting to see some notable and important changes in the N PAC which is leaning the models into a favorable -EPO to close out the year and open 2019.  Models are starting to hone in on a major Aleutian Low in the extended.  I mean, a powerhouse storm which pumps up the NE PAC ridge late in the month.  To see an ensemble mean at Day 8 suggesting a MSLP in the low 960's is incredible.  

 

Just for fun, the GFS is showing it bomb out in the low 930's!  Insane!  This is what will eventually lead us into a a frigid open to January across portions of our sub.  Just to give you an idea of what I'm thinking will happen during the opening 2 weeks of Jan...remember Jan '78 my friends...I think something real special is brewing and all of this starts with the post Christmas storm...then the New Year's storm potential which is growing more intriguing among the ensemble members.  Who says this is a bad pattern???  Some will win, some will loose...just the way it goes.  Overall, this pattern is loaded with systems and it won't stop as we flip the calendar into 2019.  

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Christmas AM snows showing up on the NAM, Euro And canadian GFS with rain

 

Almost every model showing some kind of snow shield with "the little system that could" (deliver a white Christmas to some). The globals are NOT very consistent. Some skip NE, one even skips NE and IA, blowing up the snow in IL and MI.

 

The MESO models (12km NAM and RGEM) are more in lock-step with the NAM looking most ambitious with 6-8 hrs of flakes flying.

 

 

Would only be a 1-2" deal, but at least would brighten the big day for those who get in on it

 

[Tom]

Almost every model showing some kind of snow shield with "the little system that could" (deliver a white Christmas to some). The globals are NOT very consistent. Some skip NE, one even skips NE and IA, blowing up the snow in IL and MI.

 

The MESO models (12km NAM and RGEM) are more in lock-step with the NAM looking most ambitious with 6-8 hrs of flakes flying.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh39-66.gif

 

Would only be a 1-2" deal, but at least would brighten the big day for those who get in on it

 

20181223 NAM Snowfall at Christmas.png

RPM model is locking in on this well-timed Christmas snow. Should be snowing lightly around here Christmas morning. I’ll take it.

[jaster220]

Ya, that is pretty close to me about a couple towns over. Any good? You still in Chi?

 

No, it was just a 24 hr whirl-wind deal seeing our daughter off at O'hare. Always nice to visit for fun tho, and we love the ethnic dining options that you just don't find in small town America. The food was great, and there was a mix of younger folks up to elder folks. The older gen mostly speaking Greek, which we don't see around here. The strong influence in Marshall was british and it's not very ethnic besides

[Tom]

No, it was just a 24 hr whirl-wind deal seeing our daughter off at O'hare. Always nice to visit for fun tho, and we love the ethnic dining options that you just don't find in small town America. The food was great, and there was a mix of younger folks up to elder folks. The older gen mostly speaking Greek, which we don't see around here. The strong influence in Marshall was british and it's not very ethnic besides

Glad you enjoyed your quick stay. Chicago is known for its wide variety of ethnic foods. The Greeks have a big footing in Niles and Morton Grove. The west loop is well-known as Greek Town. I’m such a foodie and enjoy all ethnic foods. Speaking of food, I gotta finish up my post-leg day breakfast feast!

[jaster220]

RPM model is locking in on this well-timed Christmas snow. Should be snowing lightly around here Christmas morning. I’ll take it.

 

Nice to know. Per GRR this early morning, they're not impressed at all. Calling it basically a nothing burger over our way. Not like they nail every event tho, lol. Hopefully another blown call on their part.

 

..with a dissipating low trying to

approach the area on Christmas Day. The wave supporting the Tuesday

low will dampen out as upper ridging builds over the Plains states.

The low never really makes it here, and the moisture flow gets cut

off with the weakening of the low.

[Niko]

Cloudy and seasonably cold w temps at 30F. A few flurries flying around.

[jaster220]

Short term models (and GRR in this case) are also painting a decent shot at a band of LEhS along I-94 tonight, so I may have 2 shots at whitening up the ground around here.   btw, we scratched out 0.1" of snow/sleet here, leaving some patchy white ground this morning. First measurable frozen in 16 days

[Niko]

Christmas Miracle snow is possible. Lets see how that plays out. Not holding my breathe though...Would be nice to score an inch and have a white Christmas outta nowhere.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Gotta teach you some Greek buddy, next time you go to Chi-land, you will be able to communicate in Greektown......... I was there couple of years ago. Great food.

[bud2380]

NAM and Canadian still showing snow falling Christmas morning here. GFS mostly dry and warmer with only light rain.

[Andie]

Just for fun, the GFS is showing it bomb out in the low 930's! Insane! This is what will eventually lead us into a a frigid open to January across portions of our sub. Just to give you an idea of what I'm thinking will happen during the opening 2 weeks of Jan...remember Jan '78 my friends...I think something real special is brewing and all of this starts with the post Christmas storm...then the New Year's storm potential which is growing more intriguing among the ensemble members. Who says this is a bad pattern??? Some will win, some will loose...just the way it goes. Overall, this pattern is loaded with systems and it won't stop as we flip the calendar into 2019.

I was in Aurora, Ill. In the winter of '78. I am here to state unequivocally, that the storm was one for the books. Hurricane force winds shook the house, and that winter we received over 110" of snow. That one storm alone had us trapped in the house until we could shovel the garage door free of an 8' drift. Unbelievable storm.

 

If Tom's right, you snow lovers will be in Elysium!

[hlcater]

NAM got rid of the snow tomorrow night. Sigh. Serious potential to close december with 0.0" of snow.

[Stormhunter87]

The new year's storm starting to disappear. Either warm or not showing up on some models.

[Andie]

It looks like Thursday will.bring Texas some strong spring-like thunderstorms. Too early to predict the severity. The system is still out in the Northern Pacific poised to deliver some strong weather to the PNW, then dive South over California.

[Tom]

I was in Aurora, Ill. In the winter of '78. I am here to state unequivocally, that the storm was one for the books. Hurricane force winds shook the house, and that winter we received over 110" of snow. That one storm alone had us trapped in the house until we could shovel the garage door free of an 8' drift. Unbelievable storm.

 

If Tom's right, you snow lovers will be in Elysium!

 

There are a lot of elements that I see aligning next month that keep me intrigued.  I'd love to experience something like that but living in an urban area it's tough to get those type of winds.  Back in '78, Aurora did not have the development it has now so I assume it was primarily rural land out there back then? 

[Madtown]

Only about 15in behind normal so far on the year....was expecting below average snowfall, but this warmth is really disappointing. 3in of snow and an ice box works. 45 with 3in of rain on the month is pathetic.

[bud2380]

The white Christmas tease appears to be dead. NAM keeps all precip in Missouri. GFS has had basically nothing. Euro also dried up quite a bit.

[GDR]

Not quite the epic December that was being talked about but we still have next December!

[jaster220]

There are a lot of elements that I see aligning next month that keep me intrigued.  I'd love to experience something like that but living in an urban area it's tough to get those type of winds.  Back in '78, Aurora did not have the development it has now so I assume it was primarily rural land out there back then? 

 

I thought GHD-1 delivered those kind of winds to most of Chicago. No? Certainly the lake front gets the worst, but the impression I got was that just about the entire region was clocked good.

[Tom]

I thought GHD-1 delivered those kind of winds to most of Chicago. No? Certainly the lake front gets the worst, but the impression I got was that just about the entire region was clocked good.

Don’t get me wrong, I did get gusts up to 50-55 mph but not the 70mph+ the lakeshore was getting. My lights were flickering on and off at times during the storm. Andie’s saying he saw hurricane wind gusts. That would be pretty epic stuff and imagine how knarly the drifts were back then?

[Niko]

Cloudy w a few flurries on and off. Not amounting to anything. Temps at 28F.

 

No snow in SIGHT! The extended looks dry right into the beginning of January. The storm for NYE and NYD has now vanished for my area.  January enters dry and seasonably cold. Even the real cold that was forecasted in the extended outlook has moderated a bit. Not sure what to say. Its a Winter that does not want to happen, unfortunately. Everything keeps getting delayed and or dried up (no moisture). The models have lost the storm.

[Madtown]

cold n stormy Christmas week turned to rain

[Tom]

Merry Christmas everyone!  Hope you have a splendid day with family and friends while enjoying good food and other festivities.  While there isn't much snow OTG across our sub, except for GoSaints area, Santa is going to have to figure out how to make a soft landing dropping off gifts in your neighborhood this year.

 

[Tom]

A complex wx pattern is poised to set up shop right across the heartland of the CONUS as we close out the month.   All the models are having a devil of a time trying to figure this out but the LRC shall give us a clue of what to expect.  With that in mind, I'm looking for a 2-part system to evolve as we head into the New Year.  Once the post Christmas system departs, the attention needs to focus on the deep Aleutian Low which will pump the NE PAC ridge (which the models did not have a clue just a couple days ago), this tanks the EPO which will likely knife down some extreme cold down the leeward side of the Rockies into the Plains/MW the last few days of the month.  Out ahead of this major cold, will be a strong clipper system that should dig far enough south into the MW like it did back in LRC Cycle #1 around NYE. 

 

This is where things get a bit complicated....Looking back at my notes, a rather interesting clipper dug deep into the MW across IA early in Nov which had this neat looking trowal-like feature with thunderstorms stretching all the way from the deep south, a definitive GOM connection.  I'm not sure quite yet how this all develops and which piece takes over bc there will be a southern piece that may come up from the south and interact with this northern stream around New Year's or the day after.  I will tell you, with a stout -EPO and a growing -PNA during this period along with a -AO/-NAO, there is going to likely be a big time thermal gradient (SW NE orientation) right across our sub to close out the year and open January.  Fun times ahead.

[Tom]

Boy, the early morning 23F temp and slight wind kinda felt nippy on the way to the gym. This warm spell has def left it’s mark.

[Stormy]

As long as there's no snow cover here I'm not expecting real bitter cold to start the new year. Sure, it may get somewhat colder than average, but snow cover would drop temps a lot more. But anything could happen with real winter setting in suddenly. I've experienced a lot of wx changes in my 40+ years of life! IMO I think any big juiced up storm is fun to watch whether my area gets snow, ice, or t. storms. In fact these big lows often are much more interesting than those clippers which tend to be somewhat moisture starved. Just my 2 cents.

[Stormy]

Boy, the early morning 23F temp and slight wind kinda felt nippy on the way to the gym. This warm spell has def left it’s mark.

Lows were in the upper teens here.

[jcwxguy]

GFS vs fv3 GFS is so different

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS vs fv3 GFS is so different

I don’t know enough on what makes them so different. Is the GFS done on January 1? Thought I had heard that but not sure.

[Stormy]

After all of the warm wx, we still have some old concrete snow remaining in the north roadside ditches (they had been full) from the November snowstorm. This weeks rain may take care of most of the rest of it.

[Andie]

There are a lot of elements that I see aligning next month that keep me intrigued. I'd love to experience something like that but living in an urban area it's tough to get those type of winds. Back in '78, Aurora did not have the development it has now so I assume it was primarily rural land out there back then?

 

It was. I was surrounded by corn fields and had a chipmunk at my back porch for a pet. I stole corn for him in the fall and he lived well.

It had also been a spectacular fall but when the snow hit, we never saw the ground again. That was one deep, cold winter. Drifts along the road were over the roofs of the cars. Made intersections tricky. Even the locals were gob smacked at the amount of snow we had.

Needless to say, I got back to Texas as fast as I could, but you guys would have been in heaven!

[Tom]

It was. I was surrounded by corn fields and had a chipmunk at my back porch for a pet. I stole corn for him in the fall and he lived well.

It had also been a spectacular fall but when the snow hit, we never saw the ground again. That was one deep, cold winter.

Needless to say, I got back to Texas as fast as I could, but you guys would have been in heaven!

How was that December overall???  Any cold periods?  Snow storms?  Just curious how this month is comparing to that analog year.

[westMJim]

How was that December overall???  Any cold periods?  Snow storms?  Just curious how this month is comparing to that analog year.

Compared to the winter of 1977/78 so far this winter has been  different. While November is somewhat similar this December has been much different.  For Grand Rapids the  November of 1977 the mean temperature was 39.5°(-0.6) there was 10.6" of snow fall, December 1977 The mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 25.9° (-3.3°) and there was 23.2" of snow fall. Then in January the mean was 19.3° (-5.1°) and there was 35.8" of snow fall. Here at Grand Rapids February became cold and dry with a mean of 14.3° (-12.5) but only 8.8" of snow fall. This November at Grand Rapids November the mean was 34.6 (-5.5) and there was 14.4" of snow fall. Here comes the big difference the mean so far is 32.1(+1.9) and only 2.0" of snow fall. At Chicago November of 1977 the mean was 40.6 (+0.3) and there was 6.3" of snow fall But December of 1977 seen a mean of 24.7 (-3.0) and Chicago seen 19.2" of snow that December. This season Chicago had a November mean of 34.6 (-5.7) and there was 12.7" of snow So far this December the mean is 32.7 (+4.0) and only 0.3" of snow has been reported. So while November was somewhat similar to this year December of 1977 was not.

[Tom]

Compared to the winter of 1977/78 so far this winter has been  different. While November is somewhat similar this December has been much different.  For Grand Rapids the  November of 1977 the mean temperature was 39.5°(-0.6) there was 10.6" of snow fall, December 1977 The mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 25.9° (-3.3°) and there was 23.2" of snow fall. Then in January the mean was 19.3° (-5.1°) and there was 35.8" of snow fall. Here at Grand Rapids February became cold and dry with a mean of 14.3° (-12.5) but only 8.8" of snow fall. This November at Grand Rapids November the mean was 34.6 (-5.5) and there was 14.4" of snow fall. Here comes the big difference the mean so far is 32.1(+1.9) and only 2.0" of snow fall. At Chicago November of 1977 the mean was 40.6 (+0.3) and there was 6.3" of snow fall But December of 1977 seen a mean of 24.7 (-3.0) and Chicago seen 19.2" of snow that December. This season Chicago had a November mean of 34.6 (-5.7) and there was 12.7" of snow So far this December the mean is 32.7 (+4.0) and only 0.3" of snow has been reported. So while November was somewhat similar to this year December of 1977 was not.

Thanks for digging that up WestMJim!  I appreciate the data...I wonder if the major SSW event taking place is the culprit this December bc when you have these events take place, the CONUS tends to warm dramatically and this one is no different.

[Tom]

Wow, what a strong SER signal showing up to close out 2018 and open 2019.  This is about as an extreme temp gradient you can get this time of year on the 12z Euro and most other models.  Another longgg week of model watching forthcoming....the New Year's time-frame is still looking very interesting.  That is some whicked cold across MN and the Dakotas to open January...mid -20F's!  Yikes

[snowstorm83]

GFS and euro couldn't be any more different for the first few days of the year. Euro has a snowstorm with temps in the single digits and the GFS is in the 40s. FV3 is frigid, but not much snow. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.