December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Gfs and gem look like a mess with lows everywhere

[james1976]

Gfs looks like a double shot with snow NYE and then again NYD.

[Niko]

Rain has begun. Temps are in the upper 30s. Looking forward to this brief warm spell tomorrow.

 

@Jaster....hope you enjoy todays rainstorm. Another rainstorm for NYE and day. Hopefully, it gets betta when January rolls on in. Kinda frustrating when you have rain in your forecast for January 1st. That shows ya how screw up this pattern is.

[Tom]

Took a glance at the 12z EPS and there are many member latching onto a strong southern wave near the Arklatex region of the deep south and heading almost due N/NE up into S IL/S IN and OV region for NYE.  A lot of them look very similar to the 12z UKIE with plenty of moisture.  There has been an uptick in snow potential across E IA/N IL/WI/N IN and into MI for this system.  Timing of the arctic front along with a potential phasing of the southern wave will be crucial across the Lower Lakes region.  Nonetheless, confidence is growing that our NYE system is beginning to transpire for the holiday.  The question is, will it snow in your back yard????

[Money]

Took a glance at the 12z EPS and there are many member latching onto a strong southern wave near the Arklatex region of the deep south and heading almost due N/NE up into S IL/S IN and OV region for NYE. A lot of them look very similar to the 12z UKIE with plenty of moisture. There has been an uptick in snow potential across E IA/N IL/WI/N IN and into MI for this system. Timing of the arctic front along with a potential phasing of the southern wave will be crucial across the Lower Lakes region. Nonetheless, confidence is growing that our NYE system is beginning to transpire for the holiday. The question is, will it snow in your back yard????

Take a look at the nam at the end of its run...

[Tom]

Take a look at the nam at the end of its run...

Just checked, ya, that southern piece looks like the main show. Might whip up a storm thread for this one later tonight or tomorrow if this threat continues.

[Niko]

http://coolwx.com/ptype/movie.gif

[james1976]

Take a look at the nam at the end of its run...

Yeah looks like it wants to phase. Of course its nam at 84 but maybe it's on to something with the other models also showing potential.

[Money]

18z Icon much stronger and more phased

[hlcater]

Yeah looks like it wants to phase. Of course its nam at 84 but maybe it's on to something with the other models also showing potential.

The NAM is usually decent at upper level synoptic scale features. Not so much at resolving precip amounts, but I for one think the NAM, even at 84hrs is worth more than the ICON.

[Money]

18z gfs was a little bit better than 12z but not as phased as the others

 

(1-3 for IA/Wi/MN)

[Money]

18z GFS

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018122718&fh=120&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Grizzcoat]

-

 

KDSM 272154Z 18006KT 10SM SCT025 BKN055 BKN095 OVC250 11/09 A2938 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW SLP950 CB DSNT SW-NW MOV NE TCU DSNT NE T01110094

 

KDSM 272229Z 25017G28KT 8SM -TSRA FEW021 BKN031CB OVC050 10/08 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 26028/2226 RAB23 TSB27 OCNL LTGCG N TS N MOV NE P0000 T01000083

 

 

Gotta love them CB's and TCU's  and Cloud to Ground LTG in late DEC....

[james1976]

Euro showing anything for NYE?

[Money]

Euro showing anything for NYE?

Showing nothing but according to Tom there’s some big storms on its ensembles. Tom said the op run was pretty close to a phase

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow the NAM is really trying to organize a storm!

[Money]

Gfs FV3 is a good hit for southern WI and IA/IL 7-9 for some areas

[hlcater]

Right now most of the snow goes north of my area. This absolutely makes sense as a more phased solution seems to be coming preferred.

[bud2380]

Most models now showing the New Year’s Eve storm. Rain/snow line is right about where I live right now on the models. Looking forward to the 00z runs

[jaster220]

Took a glance at the 12z EPS and there are many member latching onto a strong southern wave near the Arklatex region of the deep south and heading almost due N/NE up into S IL/S IN and OV region for NYE.  A lot of them look very similar to the 12z UKIE with plenty of moisture.  There has been an uptick in snow potential across E IA/N IL/WI/N IN and into MI for this system.  Timing of the arctic front along with a potential phasing of the southern wave will be crucial across the Lower Lakes region.  Nonetheless, confidence is growing that our NYE system is beginning to transpire for the holiday.  The question is, will it snow in your back yard????

 

Been waiting for a shot..

[Andie]

I'm in Houston and it feels like something equivalent to a May storm system blowing thru Lincoln. Dynamic cooling making for a cool breeze, and torrential downpours. Hard to believe I grew up here because in just the past 2.5 years I've just grown so accustomed to Lincoln climate.

We received 1.55" of rain yesterday in a historical year of rainfall.

Today was a high of 50* quite windy and we'll see a low of 34* tonight.

You're right, it's spring like, especially from all the lightning and thunder we had combined with tornado warnings.

I still think we have some whopping cold to come. Texas officially doesn't see its real cold till after Jan. 1st.

 

Good thing you left Houston. It's a a congested, hot, humid mess imo.

Not really Texas culturally anymore. Come up to Ft. Worth. Or better still go west into Hill Country or west of Ft. Worth.

We still remember our roots, and the humidity is lower though not absent.

[Money]

0z NAM

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=84

[jcwxguy]

0z NAM

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=84

gets it's act together just in time for iowa side of the river and not here. Just glad it's showing something though and hope for a slight west trend over next few days

[Niko]

Its a raw evening out there. Temps at a balmy 41F. On and off rain. Should end later this evening, but skies remain cloudy.

[Tom]

I started a storm thread for the New Year's system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1929-new-years-storm-potential/

[Tom]

The Blizzard that just raked the Plains into the Upper Midwest certainly has left its mark.  Here was the snow cover on Christmas morning...

 

 

 

As of today, it has grown substantially and quite deep across the north....this will help keep temps cooler during the brief transitory period next weekend.

 

[Tom]

I said as we were heading into fall that I was afraid that there was too much ridging in the interior west of the US for those of us in the middle part of the country to enjoy snow storms this winter (if that trend were to continue).  I still feel like that seems to be the case.  Am I wrong on that?

After seeing the the 00z EPS from last night, more members are starting to see the jet cut underneath the blocking over the top between Jan 8th-10th and systems developing across the central/southern Plains.  Hang in there, I think the opportunities are coming for your region and they won't stop there.  

[Niko]

Current temps at 52F w cloudy skies. Spring has arrive!

[Niko]

This December will definitely leave its mark as a very snowless month.

[Snowshoe]

December is going to end up being about 5° warmer than avg. and roughly normal (.91") liquid equiv. precip. What will be memorable to me is the really long dry spell from 12/3 to 12/25. I would usually associate dry spells with cold canadian air but not this year.

 

Hopeful for a better January.

[Tom]

I certainly hope you're right.  As excited as I was in November, I'm equally as downcast after going through December.  

I surely agree with you regarding December's lack luster stats in the snow dept.  MJO and SSW really threw a wrench into the forecast I was anticipating.  Storms showed up but were to warm.  May the new year start off on a better note.

[Niko]

Cloudy skies and very mild w temps in the mid 50s. Great to be outdoors, that's for sure.

[westMJim]

Todays official high at Grand Rapids will be 53° That will make today the warmest it has been at Grand Rapids since October 31^st when the high was 57° This will be the 5^th warmest December 28^th (for the high) in Grand Rapids history.  At this point the mean at Grand Rapids is 32.4° (+2.8) and there has been just 2.4” of snow fall at this time Grand Rapids is in 4^th place for the least amount of December snow fall.  It is looking like Grand Rapids will end up this winter with less then 70” of snow and depending on how January ends up we could end up with less then 60” with even less then 50” not out of the question. The current temperature here is now down to 42.1 with cloudy skies and some wind.

[Hawkeye]

We hit 50 yesterday, the fifth 50 this month.  I think a local met said we hit 50 more times in December than in November.

[Niko]

It feels like Octoberish.

 

Btw: Also, I am noticing the real cold air down the road is not real cold anymore. The 20s for highs are gone.

[Niko]

Plenty of golfers today...unreal

[Niko]

Santa Fe, NM: The area received couple inches of snowfall

[Andie]

This last late winter/early springlike system did a number on air flights. Took my husband almost 12 hrs to go from DFW to Tucson today. A real mess.

My moneys on a wintry Jan after the first week.

[Minny_Weather]

This last late winter/early springlike system did a number on air flights. Took my husband almost 12 hrs to go from DFW to Tucson today. A real mess.

My moneys on a wintry Jan after the first week.

DFW had it bad and I can see why they got screwed up, but IAH just got routine thunderstorms early in the morning and that caused full blown chaos at the airport the rest of the day. I ended up spending 13 hours there yesterday. Kinda scary that they let the situation get that ridiculous considering Houston is one of the most frequent thunderstorm cities in the country. And during peak travel season too.

[jaster220]

Was 54F before dawn. Down to 32F attm. I'm enjoying the wx cuz it's the only wx I've got..