December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Craig-OmahaWX]

[CentralNebWeather]

So basically anyplace in the center of the country will get crushed with snow or just rain or totally miss. That is the theme of the runs tonight. Good grief. Might be time to head back to the time before computer models, only slightly kidding unfortunately.

[Stormhunter87]

Okay so I think the models are just playing darts and seeing what sticks

[CentralNebWeather]

Okay so I think the models are just playing darts and seeing what sticks

What will the next model run have, the low in Honduras then crushing Alabama.

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 with the low in Southwest Kansas at hour 120

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'd like to put $50 on the Euro having the low in Arkansas @ hr 120.

[Stormhunter87]

What will the next model run have, the low in Honduras then crushing Alabama.

At this point anything is possible

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 definitely going west. Weeee going to fun trying to figure out this travel time. Hopefully the nam will stay strong.

[gimmesnow]

I feel like this keeps trending colder and colder where I'm at by the IL/WI border. This looked like a hopeless rainer a few days ago, but there's hope that we'll get some snow out of this. Though to be honest, after the last two years, I'm pretty pessimistic. It always feels like we get moisture and energy, and it turns into rain, then it gets cold again. Warms up, rains, then gets cold again. This pattern feels like it's been going on for a while.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well I see the euro is not changing much, even went a bit further northwest lol.

[Tom]

It's time we start a storm thread for our post-Christmas storm...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1922-1226-12-28-winter-storm/

[Tom]

The LRC is shining bright and it's coming into focus quite vividly and I think it's pretty darn safe to say it handled the Christmas week pattern quite well.  I wanna show something rather peculiar and fascinating to me.  Check out the GEFS 10mb heights forecast for Week 2 and I'm going to point out a couple important features.  I've shown several examples this season of how this model and others forecast the 10mb pattern a lot better than the 500mb pattern which can give us a good clue where the storm track will end up.  In the animation below, it is now pretty clear you can see the PV Split evolve in the beginning of the run and then shifts S/SW into S Canada with rising heights in the SE!  Notice how the "general" flow coming off the PAC has a SW flow look to it.  This is an encouraging sign to keep the activity across our sub as we head into January and I'm expecting several systems during the opening week.  If this is anywhere close to being right, it's going to be brutally cold up north and plenty of cold to seed the storms which I believe are lining up as we open up the New Year.

 

 

FWIW, the GEPS also are showing this general flow at 10mb....not to mention, both the EPS/GEFS are continuing to show a lot of snow potential across the entire sub.  Gear up, it's time we look forward and begin to set our minds into an Ol' Fashioned winter pattern.

 

 

[Tom]

D**n, 12z NAM blowing up a more robust wave on Christmas....White Christmas Miracle???

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

d**n, 12z NAM blowing up a more robust wave on Christmas....White Christmas Miracle???

 

 

Just posted that in the other thread. But yeah the nam definitely showing something interesting sadly going to miss it

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and temps in the 30s. A few flurries flying from time to time getting us all in the Christmas spirit.

 

Btw: January looks brutal w snow chances. Lets hope this doesn't change.

[james1976]

Wasn't the Euro picking up on this Christmas day wave a few days back but has since lost it? Let's see the other 12z models.

[Money]

Icon says nam is on crack with the Christmas Day wave

[CentralNebWeather]

Icon says nam is on crack with the Christmas Day wave

Model lack of agreement continues, even in the shorter term.

[Money]

Gfs looks like it has a more robust wave for Christmas but rain in IL

[Tom]

I like where the MJO is heading as we close out this month and open January...no more stalling in the warm phases and a quick transition towards a colder pattern.  January has potential to open up extremely cold if it heads into Phase 7/8.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I like where the MJO is heading as we close out this month and open January...no more stalling in the warm phases and a quick transition towards a colder pattern. January has potential to open up extremely cold if it heads into Phase 7/8.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Can't get here fast enough. This winter is starting to look like a plane crash with no turnaround if the cold doesn't come back. This Niño is destroying winter. Completely east based is and was not in anyone's expectation.

[hlcater]

The NAMs typically do very well with these low amplitude marginal temp snow events and this leads me to weigh them a little more than the GFS. Could see a wet 2” if they’re right...

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 would place a glacier over the center of the nation in the next 2 weeks.

[Andie]

Hey Tom,.....

 

When will Texas see some winter? It looks like Spring down here. No joke.

 

Highs in the 60's. Lows vary from 38 to mid 50's !?

Some thunderstorms expected the day after Christmas with yet another inch of rain to our historic total of 61".

 

This is nuts.

[snowstorm83]

FV3 would place a glacier over the center of the nation in the next 2 weeks.

 

I see the New Years system has popped back up on the FV3. Even though it's 10 days out it has more potential than the 26-27 storm for Eastern NE.

[Andie]

Predicting the next polar vortex disruption

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/brace-yourself-the-polar-vortex-looks-to-be-brewing-a-harsh-winter

 

Cohen shares insights on the state of the polar vortex on his blog and Twitter feed. Last week, he tweeted: "Confidence is growing in a significant #PolarVortex disruption in the coming weeks. This could be the single most important determinant of the weather this #winter across the Northern Hemisphere."Interesting perspective regarding Polar Vortex Disruption on the way.

 

[Stormhunter87]

New year's storm looks nasty and I like it. No travel to worry about. GFS keeps it south.

[bud2380]

Euro puts down about a half inch of snow Christmas morning for my area. We’ll see.

[Tom]

Hey Tom,.....

 

When will Texas see some winter? It looks like Spring down here. No joke.

 

Highs in the 60's. Lows vary from 38 to mid 50's !?

Some thunderstorms expected the day after Christmas with yet another inch of rain to our historic total of 61".

 

This is nuts.

Hard to say, but if I’d put a date on it, the opening week of January looks like things cool off down south. The warming of ENSO 1.2 region could deflate the strength of the cool down so it’s something to monitor going forward. Hopefully the other compensating factors (-NAO/-AO) Help your area out.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam going warm with that wave but the temperature is right around 32.

[Niko]

Few flurries, otherwise, cloudy w temps in the 30s.

[Niko]

Next week looks like rain and temps near 50 Or better....yikes! Much colder weather thereafter. We will see for any pullbacks.

[CentralNebWeather]

How about this glacier in the next 10 days? Would be fun.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Stopped in a pretty neat cafe last night in Niles. Do you know it? Anywhere near your place? It was a random find and I liked the unique interior

 

[jaster220]

Heading west to ORD last evening we ran into some decent snow showers. Was nice to see real snow flying for the first time in 3 wks. About a 20 mile stretch of Van Buren county had 1/2 to 1 inch of LES. Plastered to the trees and such it very briefly looked like real winter coming home this late afternoon. Better than nothing I guess, but it's pretty hard to squelch the disappointment of such a drastic flip from our snowy November. Ready for something positive to surprise me in the wx dept.

[Niko]

@Jaster.....

 

snowy November = bad December

[jaster220]

For the record, I have a "non-zero" chance of seeing and possibly even measuring SNOW sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. Ofc, I'll be busy traveling to Chicago-land in the evening so I may not even get to experience it if it does happen

 

20181220 Intellicast h48 surf.GIF

 

2nd Dec event in a row that the Intelli folks were wrong showing snow over SMI. They have a fairly good track record imho, so this stands out as noticeable. These marginal events really can go either way, and right now they're not happening around here.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w a few flurries n a temp of 31F. A dusting here and there....better get those shovels out

[jaster220]

@Jaster.....

 

snowy November = bad December

 

For SMI almost always is the case. NMI however will often see a snowy Nov become an even snowier December. But, I digress..

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Stopped in a pretty neat cafe last night in Niles. Do you know it? Anywhere near your place? It was a random find and I liked the unique interior

 

Screenshot_2018-12-23 Coffee, Pastries Baked Goods, Lunch Dinner Papagalinos Pastries and Cafe Restaurant in Niles.png

Ya, that is pretty close to me about a couple towns over. Any good? You still in Chi?