December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

NOAA:

The highly amplified subtropical jet will allow the highly dynamic
low pressure to lift northeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes
late Thursday through Saturday. Isentropic lift will increase over
southeast Michigan and lead to likely precipitation chances starting
late Thursday evening. The initial warm advection into southeast
Michigan on Thursday will aid in precipitation type starting as rain
late in the day on Thursday and transitioning into a wintry mix or
snow during the overnight into early Friday morning. Sufficient
forcing will continue to keep precipitation chances into Friday
afternoon. Warmer daytime conditions will help precipitation type
transition back to rain as the low lifts through the eastern Ohio
River Valley. A cold front will be drawn into southeast Michigan and
will begin to transition precipitation Friday evening to all snow or
wintry mix on the back edge of precipitation within the deformation
axis as precipitation exits to the east. More seasonal temperatures
will return to Michigan for the weekend with highs peaking in the
low to mid 30s and overnight lows in the 20s.

[Niko]

Partly cloudy currently w temps in the upper 20s

[gosaints]

Cut cut cut away

[snowstorm83]

I flew out of Omaha yesterday with a bit of snow on the ground. Had a layover in Detroit with zero traces of snow anywhere. That must be pretty rare for mid December. Though I'm sure Jan and Feb will be pretty snowy there. 

[chances14]

I flew out of Omaha yesterday with a bit of snow on the ground. Had a layover in Detroit with zero traces of snow anywhere. That must be pretty rare for mid December. Though I'm sure Jan and Feb will be pretty snowy there. 

 

Detroit has had some pretty crappy Decembers recently so it really isn't that rare. White christmas historical probabilities are pretty much 50-50 there

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has sneaky system for Christmas Eve / Day for many on here. Only model thus far picking up on this FWIW.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Control has lighter amounts but further S and W. 10:1 no Kuchera available.

[GDR]

[GDR]

That lines up with what grizzcoat is thinking.

[Tom]

00z Euro keeps showing a Christmas Miracle system that lays down accumulating snows pretty close to I-80 on north on Christmas Eve/Day...

 

[Tom]

Last nights Euro Weeklies really stand out to me and resemble a 500mb pattern towards some fascinating analogs, esp Jan '78, which was an active month around these parts and the fact that it had an active MJO like we are seeing this year.  Knowing where the Long term Long wave trough has set up during this year's cyclical pattern, I still believe we have not even come close to seeing what this winter has to deliver.  I've always been a big believer that early season ridging will provide snow chances the farther N/NW you are but as the season progresses it will shift S/SE esp during Jan-Feb.  March is a different story but I don't want to get to far ahead of myself.

 

So, with that in mind, it looks like to me the post Christmas big ticket storm will prob cut NW of here and I'm fine with that bc we need the snow pack to build up again towards our friends to our north.  Last nights 00z EPS continues to paint quite a wide 6" snow mean Week 2 from NE into the Northwoods.  GEFS pretty much agree on the placement of the heaviest snows.

 

Here's our current snow cover across the CONUS...a lot of the snow in N IA/S MN/WI will prob melt but then nature will likely lay down some more right in time for the holidays.  Besides the Rockies, the nation as a whole is rather lackluster in the snow dept.  Will nature practically lay down the foundation later next week to set the stage for a mid and late winter onslaught???  Gosh, it sure seems like it based on what is happening with the Strat/Polar Vortex and among other things that are dialing up.

 

 

 

 

Euro weeklies snowfall through January....take it FWIW, but the signal is there for a SW Flow pattern and I don't necessarily buy into the NW Flow next month, although, at times, we will certainly see this pattern along with some strong clippers.  Lot's on the table my friends.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco starting to pick up on the post Christmas storm:

 

Looking at the Dec 25-28: Despite the developing model spread Dec
22-24...the global mdls and EC ensemble mean cont to fcst a
low/deep trof to move into the Desert SW. This is consistent with
the MJO moving into phase 5. It appears likely we`ll have a lee
low ejecting out of CO somewhere nearby. This time frame needs to
be watched as air cold enough for snow gets pulled S.

[Grizzcoat]

JB still gung ho on a revert back to cold/snowy pattern-- albeit in the E it may take 15-20 days.

[Niko]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a7d4362bac73

[Niko]

Glorious day outside w plentiful sunshine and seasonably cold w temps in the mid 20s.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Although a high degree of uncertainty will
accompany this system due to the low-latitude positioning of the
energy, it would take a substantial modeling error of the mid-
latitude westerlies before snow became a concern. At this time, hard
to envision anything more than an inch or so Friday evening.

 

This system needs to be watched

[OKwx2k4]

That euro isn't really getting me to the point of "all-in" yet. A 45 day mean of

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW- ICON also "sees" sneaky snow for late Christmas Eve into Day.....

[Tom]

FWIW- ICON also "sees" sneaky snow for late Christmas Eve into Day.....

As well as the Canadian...

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS with a Boxing Day Monster. Too bad it’s all rain unless you live in the Dakotas or N MN

[Snowshoe]

Besides the Rockies, the nation as a whole is rather lackluster in the snow dept.

 

 

Boy you ain't kidding! There's not even enough snow in the lake effect belts of northern Wisconsin to get the snowmobile trails open. Losing out on Christmas and potentially New Year's business would be a severe blow to many places up there. Snow should be much closer to the 24 by this time of year.

 

http://www.snowsnakes.net/camera/videoold.jpg

[CentralNebWeather]

Not liking the GFS or the CMC.  The low basically go right over the top of Central Nebraska.  Still plenty of time to track and see what ultimately happens.

[Grizzcoat]

12z GFS with a Boxing Day Monster. Too bad it’s all rain unless you live in the Dakotas or N MN

Not only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Not only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season. 

There are many of businesses that bank on cold weather and snow that are hurting so far it looks like in the Upper Midwest.  Hopefully the pattern changes.  A large rain storm this time of year doesn't really do anyone any good imo.  

[Stormhunter87]

If the cold air could actually get in this storm wow it would be a monster. The amount of moisture this storm is tapping is nuts.

[Tony]

Gem showing Christmas Eve-Christmas Day snow for some on the sub-forum. Maybe the Euro and Gem onto something.

[St Paul Storm]

Not only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season.

 

No doubt. If this panned out it would be bad. Massive rains in late December really don’t do much good for anyone. Pretty tough to trust the models at this distance though. They typically do pretty bad with pattern changes, especially the GFS/GEFS.

[Niko]

Was just outside cleaning and organizing my garage and gotta tell ya, it feels splendid. Hard to believe this is December. Also, I came across that its still Autumn , not Winter yet, so I know a lot of folks, including myself ) are frustrated w this pattern, but it will eventually break and we will get the snows and arctic intrusions coming in. We just need to build that snowcover to our north first. Hang in there peeps....hopefully, Ma Nature can provide a  "White Christmas Miracle."

 

Btw: This Friday, December 21st, 2018,  at 5:23pm, Winter arrives.......YOOOHOOOOO!

[gabel23]

 

 

Btw: This Friday, December 21st, 2018,  at 5:23pm, Winter arrives.......YOOOHOOOOO!

It's also my 35 birthday; hoping for some storminess right after!!! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Could the GFS and the FV3 GFS be any farther apart with the post Christmas storm?  Hard to take models seriously when one has heavy snow over the Dakotas and the other has heavy snow over Oklahoma, Missouri and Eastern Kansas at the exact same time.  Model mayhem.

[Stormhunter87]

Could the GFS and the FV3 GFS be any farther apart with the post Christmas storm? Hard to take models seriously when one has heavy snow over the Dakotas and the other has heavy snow over Oklahoma, Missouri and Eastern Kansas at the exact same time. Model mayhem.

I think there are alot of things at play and the models just can't handle it. Plus the cold air is all over. So much going on and trying to plan our Christmas travels are giving me a headache because of these models.

[Grizzcoat]

If the Euro is to be believed at long range (and it's trending the GFS's way- having the soaker for many of us) I find it hard to believe the atmosphere can reload fast enough for another system 48-72 hrs down the pipe. Check out the 850's at hr 240 

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850th&rh=2018121812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=

[indianajohn]

I think we can all relate.........

The moment someone starts a new thread for a potential storm LOL!!!

 

[GDR]

Book it. and remember and quote this--- "Rain / T-Storm event for areas east of 95W longitude come just after the 25th". IF NOT FURTHER WEST FOR THE RAIN. North of 45 lat has good chance of mix/snow and E of I-35 at the same latitude.

I would go further nw

[Stormhunter87]

Icon favouring a nice little burst of snow Christmas morning. Would love a white Christmas but of course we have to drive that morning.

[Grizzcoat]

I would go further nw

Sure can do. Not that I know what I'am talking about-- but the pattern favors NW. Hopefully, that spells good things for us further down the road with easier access to cold air. Right now it's nada. Was 47F the other day in I-Falls, breaking the old record which was 44F. That doesn't happen with a typical snowpack. And we don't get "typical" results in JAN unless they do...

[Andie]

That euro isn't really getting me to the point of "all-in" yet. A 45 day mean of

Keep your chin up. Jan-Feb May sneak up on ya!

I’m holding with a visitation from 2009. Maybe not as strong, but there.

[St Paul Storm]

I think we can agree that the 18z FV3 is one of the best spread the wealth gifts of all time. Something for almost everyone in this sub. Lock it in.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think we can all agree that the 18z FV3 is one of the best spread the wealth gifts of all time. Something for almost everyone in this sub. Lock it in.

Whoa. Fun to look. I would take 15”.

[GDR]