December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Current temp at 41F w sunshine breaking through. Its going to be a great day for any outdoor yard activity, that's for sure, even decor the lights.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS with a nice storm over the plains post Christmas. Hopefully start of a great pattern

[bud2380]

i don't care if this is 300+ hours out. It's the first time in what feels like 2 weeks that a model has shown any snow at all around these parts. So here's the 12z GFS.

 

[Niko]

i don't care if this is 300+ hours out. It's the first time in what feels like 2 weeks that a model has shown any snow at all around these parts. So here's the 12z GFS.

 

GFSMW_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

I'll take 500+ hrs out at this point. I'd rather see this than models showing nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z FV3-GFS with several storms towards the end of the run.  Long way out for confidence or specifics, just hoping it is a pattern change to real winter.

[Andie]

Wind picked up this afternoon 25-30 mph. Temps dropped some- 40*. Overcast.

 

It's like March with an attitude!

[Stacsh]

GRR mentions SSW in their AFD update this afternoon.   Mentions favorable pattern for at least the Mitten by the end of next week.  Until then our warmest stretch in December in a few years 

[Minny_Weather]

Dean Wysocki already mentioning it being colder after Christmas. He's never been wrong.

[Stormhunter87]

CPC is going super warm through mid January

[St Paul Storm]

IL/WI get a nice snow on the 21st on the 18z GFS.

[james1976]

Models are all crazy right now during Christmas week! As Tom said, models are trying figure out the pattern change. I think its comin.....just a matter of when. I do think we go into winter mode in a couple weeks. As a whole, models are starting to see it....just not all agreeing on exactly when yet.

[jaster220]

The EPS and GEFS/GEPS are on opposite sides of what the EPO will do Christmas week.  EPS has trended towards a +EPO while GEFS maintain a -EPO along with the GEPS.  As a result, the EPS blow torches the eastern CONUS and keeps the west cold.  I really find that hard to believe but if its right, then the beat goes on.

 

Been mentioned elsewhere that the Euro's strong suit isn't reading the NPAC. It has struggled often in reading it correctly. Let's hope that's the case this time as well..

[jaster220]

44F here today before the front came thru and all the fog set up shop. DFA til 11am Saturday morning here. Might be another beautiful Saturday tho if the skies clear out as expected.

[Niko]

Beautiful evening outside w temps in the 40s. Skies are mostly cloudy, but very comfortable being outside.

[Yerf]

Dense fog in Chicagoland

[jaster220]

44F here today before the front came thru and all the fog set up shop. DFA til 11am Saturday morning here. Might be another beautiful Saturday tho if the skies clear out as expected.

 

     Uggh. Knew that 2 sunny Sat's in December was almost impossible to pull off

 

 

Have also begun to trend the sky fcst for Saturday more

pessimistic. Stratus should be hard to dislodge with

strengthening low level east-northeast flow due to sfc low moving

toward the Ohio Valley. Climatology supports this idea as well.

[Niko]

Foggy, light drizzle and mild w temps in the upper 30s.

 

Dense fog advisory for my area.

[OKwx2k4]

All right gfs, don't start this crap again....

 

In honesty, this has merit. Patience is a virtue.

 

[OKwx2k4]

I agree with Tom 100 percent. I'm not truly complaining because I know this is a break. Also agree with Tom about watching fof the "Niña" flair in the pattern.

 

Hate losing mid-December but it will be worth it.

[Tom]

Every since my post early in the morning yesterday, the models have now begun to trend much more progressive with the trough tracking across the deep south across parts of S TX. Instead of cutting off this energy into N Mexico, notice now how this trough, along with the northern piece are now trying to phase into a large scale system across portions of our eastern sub forum. I've been monitoring this like a hawk and I"m encouraged to see these latest developments as it is also confirming the LRC length that I've been using. In essence, I like what I'm seeing and the pattern going forward into Christmas week.

 

Check out this animation of the last 8 runs starting with last nights 00z GFS....isn't this incredible how systems just want to intensify right where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave trough has set up shop?? I'm also noticing wintry trends among the ensembles across the GL's/OV with this system next weekend during the Winter Solstice.

[Niko]

Cloudy and seasonably chilly, along w light sprinkles and temps are hovering in the low 30s. Kinda has a glaze look to it on the ground as temps dipped into the upper 20s last night.

[Tom]

There was heavy frost once again on the way to the gym early this morning. Looking forward to this warm weekend in the mid/upper 40’s to finally be able to clean up the front/back yard. Even though there isn’t any snow OTG now, gotta take what Mother Nature gives you and make the best of it. Happy Saturday!

 

On a side note, I think this weekend we will finally see the models paint a better picture of what is to be expected later next weekend into th Christmas holiday. I’m looking for the models to see a blossoming Husdson Bay Ridge and storms running underneath this ridge right across our sub. Not brutal cold, but cold enough to support snow. I think the brutal stuff will come around NYE and during the 1st week of Jan.

[GDR]

[Stacsh]

Models seem too warm to support snow before Xmas for most of us.  Might have to wait until the following week.  

[jaster220]

Models seem too warm to support snow before Xmas for most of us.  Might have to wait until the following week.  

 

If you're talking LES outbreak, prolly true. A rain to snow event similar to last month seems to be a legit possibility with next Friday's system tho. How did your place make out with that one? Iirc, most was southeast of you.

[jaster220]

Watching next Friday's system closely over here for two reasons, one is my daughter has a Saturday morning flight out of O'hare and we plan to drive into the area Friday evening and spend the night. As Tom showed, h5 has really changed it's tune in the past 48 hrs aligning a possible classic phased wave/trough axis. Right now, all models look warmish to start so again a good chunk of qpf might go down the storm drains. 6z GFS only had a 2-4" gift for SMI and it was iirc, the best of the suite. Nonetheless, it does deliver a 1-2-3 punch before Christmas day to really whiten up The Mitt for the holidays and that would be such a nice present under my winter wx tree!

 

[james1976]

12z GFS looking much colder starting the 20th. That system is looking better for GL's region.

[St Paul Storm]

Down to 1-2” of snow depth. The rest of it should melt today under the blazing December sun and 43F. Gonna fire up the grill this afternoon.

[jaster220]

12z GFS looking much colder starting the 20th. That system is looking better for GL's region.

 

My current Friday zone forecast. Putting it here for a record and to see how this trends during the next 4 days.

 

Attm, GRR's morning AFD is saying "nothing to see here, move along"

 

Friday

Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36.

[jaster220]

DANG! @ 12z GFS, going bonkers with the phasing just still too warm. Can this change?

 

[Stacsh]

If you're talking LES outbreak, prolly true. A rain to snow event similar to last month seems to be a legit possibility with next Friday's system tho. How did your place make out with that one? Iirc, most was southeast of you.

 

We got some decent snow in Nov.  I got about 2.5 from that system.  Sitting at 9.5" for the year. Very little LES.   Mostly heavy wet snow that melted quickly due to the warming near the lake still.  

[Stormhunter87]

Man the models are all over place. They really are not sure what to do around Christmas and the week after. Each run is different

[jaster220]

Man the models are all over place. They really are not sure what to do around Christmas and the week after. Each run is different

 

Isn't that normal for d10+ tho? I can't remember model-land consistency at that range, tbh

[buzzman289]

1703CA57-D6EE-4B0B-A35F-06FB42A06FF3.png

Cedar Rapids snow hole lol

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 says Merry Christmas (Tom's storm for Christmas finally be showing up)

[St Paul Storm]

Nice clipper on Saturday too before the Christmas Miracle storm on the FV3.

[james1976]

A Christmas storm would be epic. Been a while!

[CentralNebWeather]

Would have more confidence if Euro was on board with a Christmas storm. It has not shown anything. Let’s see if that changes with the 12z run.

[james1976]

It seems like models in general are starting to latch onto the pattern change

[CentralNebWeather]

12z FV3 GFS going crazy with storms