December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

A beautiful, mild day in se Ia. today. Temp up to 42° when I last checked. I love when there are some pull backs in a cold pattern during the winter. As a livestock farmer it makes it much easier keeping my animals comfy, fed and healthy. Also much less work!

[hlcater]

A local met says....."evidence is growing that a stratospheric warming event is in the works. Major models are now unanimous displacing the Polar Vortex and spilling polar air into the lower 48 close to Christmas. The colder air could be accompanied by some holiday snow but it all comes down to timing and placement, no way of narrowing down any locations yet as the pieces in the pattern are still moving around. Something we'll keep and eye on in the coming week." One caveat.... "the MJO is not forecast to be in its cold phases as it was last Christmas when a similar strat warming produced lows of -22, -24, and -23 December 31st-January 2nd here in Cedar Rapids. This year the MJO is projected by the EURO to be in phase 4 which has a strong tendency to be mild over the country in both December and January."

 

"What this means is that the advertised cold is likely to be far less intense than last year. It may also be short in duration or come in short weaker bursts. If we were in phase 1 or 8 I would be concerned about a major Arctic outbreak. But 4 leaves some significant doubt in my mind as to what the overall impact will be and for how long. Anyway, I thought I would address the stratospheric warming potential before you heard it on the grapevine. Whatever happens, the next 10-12 days look mild."

He’s right about the MJO but I’m gonna pull out the weenie card here and say that while it’s projected to be phase 3-4, it’s also fairly low amplitude, perhaps lessening the impact?

[Stormy]

He’s right about the MJO but I’m gonna pull out the weenie card here and say that while it’s projected to be phase 3-4, it’s also fairly low amplitude, perhaps lessening the impact?

That's possible. Wouldn't be surprised it's going to be quite cold as that seems to be the theme so far.

[badgerwx]

A local met says....."evidence is growing that a stratospheric warming event is in the works. Major models are now unanimous displacing the Polar Vortex and spilling polar air into the lower 48 close to Christmas. The colder air could be accompanied by some holiday snow but it all comes down to timing and placement, no way of narrowing down any locations yet as the pieces in the pattern are still moving around. Something we'll keep and eye on in the coming week." One caveat.... "the MJO is not forecast to be in its cold phases as it was last Christmas when a similar strat warming produced lows of -22, -24, and -23 December 31st-January 2nd here in Cedar Rapids. This year the MJO is projected by the EURO to be in phase 4 which has a strong tendency to be mild over the country in both December and January."

 

"What this means is that the advertised cold is likely to be far less intense than last year. It may also be short in duration or come in short weaker bursts. If we were in phase 1 or 8 I would be concerned about a major Arctic outbreak. But 4 leaves some significant doubt in my mind as to what the overall impact will be and for how long. Anyway, I thought I would address the stratospheric warming potential before you heard it on the grapevine. Whatever happens, the next 10-12 days look mild."

I always enjoy reading Terry's blog. That guy loves the White Gold as much as anybody!

[Niko]

Cloudy w temps at 29F.

 

A little snow tomorrow, but no accumulations.

[jaster220]

Another cold day (32F for a high) and the last 3 were expected to be well above freezing. Even with warm lows, we're stringing a week of BN avg's.

 

While my NWS office is not too bullish on tomorrow's little wave, these maps indicate a possible front and back side snowy period. Will be nice to at least see flakes, and minor accum's not outta the question here.

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

  RGEM gives me 1"...and TX 13"

[Niko]

Another cold day (32F for a high) and the last 3 were expected to be well above freezing. Even with warm lows, we're stringing a week of BN avg's.

 

While my NWS office is not too bullish on tomorrow's little wave, these maps indicate a possible front and back side snowy period. Will be nice to at least see flakes, and minor accum's not outta the question here.

 

20181211 Intellicast h24 surf.GIF

 

20181211 Intellicast h36 surf.GIF

At this point, I'll take 1/2 "

 

FWIW, I saw the 384 hr GFS yesterday and it is insane. Its a crippling blizzard. (945mb triple phase).....need I say, stronger than "78"

[Minny_Weather]

Fargo, originally supposed to only get a dusting, just got rocked by freezing rain followed by 2" of heavy snow and counting.

[Andie]

Is it just me, or it this fall/winter shaping up to follow its own rules and defy the models?

[Minny_Weather]

Is it just me, or it this fall/winter shaping up to follow its own rules and defy the models?

The models haven't even been close to right for anything that's happened here this year. We could get 4" of snow Thursday and I wouldn't be surprised.

[Andie]

Well, Northern Plains friends, here a solution to a radar anomaly reported up there. Thing is, the mystery really just gets deeper.

 

 

https://www.courierpress.com/story/opinion/columnists/jon-webb/2018/12/11/source-mysterious-radar-blip-over-illinois-kentucky-still-mystery/2280916002/

 

"Citing an unnamed pilot, he said Evansville air traffic control claimed a military C-130 released a stream of chaff – radar-jamming material sometimes used during training exercises – a few miles northwest of Evansville.

 

A story from the Courier & Press pointed out that military bases sat near the areas where the blips appeared: Fort Campbell in Kentucky and Scott Air Force Base in Western Illinois.

 

But if this was a case of military chaff, and it did come from a C-130, that plane didn’t come from either of those bases."

 

...then. It gets perplexing.

 

[jaster220]

At this point, I'll take 1/2 "

 

FWIW, I saw the 384 hr GFS yesterday and it is insane. Its a crippling blizzard. (945mb triple phase).....need I say, stronger than "78"

 

And this from anonymous   

 

 

On or about Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, there is a possibility of an intense blizzard over Illinois and points north and east. Winds would be pretty strong but the snow amounts may be mammoth. Just a heads up. Should start seeing this on standard models in about a week, signal will be quite strong. 1978 anyone?

[Niko]

And this from anonymous 

Hope this is the beginning of a big storm coming at that timeframe.....

[jaster220]

At this point, I'll take 1/2 "

 

FWIW, I saw the 384 hr GFS yesterday and it is insane. Its a crippling blizzard. (945mb triple phase).....need I say, stronger than "78"

 

Which run exacty? I did not see that and can't seem to find it. New or old GFS?

[jaster220]

Hope this is the beginning of a big storm coming at that time frame.....

 

Certainly no shortage of potential being flashed, but we've seen that before only to have it come back to reality. Nonetheless, I'd drool over some of these

 

[jaster220]

Hope this is the beginning of a big storm coming at that timeframe.....

 

Wouldn't that be something?

[Niko]

Which run exacty? I did not see that and can't seem to find it. New or old GFS?

Not sure. If I had to take a guess, I would say "New"

[Niko]

Certainly no shortage of potential being flashed, but we've seen that before only to have it come back to reality. Nonetheless, I'd drool over some of these

 

That looks sweet. This relaxation we are dealing w now is a tease. Ma Nature is telling us, "Get Ready"..powerhouse of a storm is coming right b4 Christmas or on Christmas Day.

[Niko]

Wouldn't that be something?

I want to see other models picking up on this during the next couple of days, at least starting next week.

[jaster220]

I want to see other models picking up on this during the next couple of days, at least starting next week.

 

Which run showed that mega-bomb? Or were you joking?

 

This could go bigly

 

[Niko]

Which run showed that mega-bomb? Or were you joking?

 

This could go bigly

 

Not sure......No joke.....It was huge!

 

Man, look at all that moisture. A lot of peeps on this forum score w this one.

[jaster220]

Not sure......No joke.....It was huge!

 

Man, look at all that moisture. A lot of peeps on this forum score w this one.

 

Did the men in black retract it or something? I can't find anything close to that on either GFS the past 2.5 days. Fake news..

[Niko]

Did the men in black retract it or something? I can't find anything close to that on either GFS the past 2.5 days. Fake news..

 

Lets see if it comes back during the next couple of days....

[Grizzcoat]

What concerns myself  (as a snow/cold lover) about this current pattern and the one forecasted to change it back to the one we had just a few weeks ago is twofold. #1- These types of patterns ALWAYAS last longer then models show and what people like JB and some others think. Bias with JB and others, but the models simply struggle at long range with regime changes and these patterns are always buggers to break. #2- Once the pattern is broken, my fear is NW flow with little moisture as previously mentioned by another poster. But at this point in the game with .7" snow for DEC at my location; a Clipper producing 1-3" will seem like a pan handle hook. I value Tom's and others' thoughts on here but I don't see serious change until after the New Year - not before.  With the current forecast through 10 days - and  I think most would agree there are slim/none chances of accumulating snowfall - DSM will had 2.7" for the year and have to go back 12 years to 06-07' to find a lower amount through DEC 22 at 1.4" 

But there is good in the bad - just like anything else. It has allowed those who heat with wood the extra time to gather kindling and extra wood in the rather dry woods which is much more difficult with a deep snow cover. I just hope the snow eventually shows up.

[Stormy]

I always enjoy reading Terry's blog. That guy loves the White Gold as much as anybody!

Yep, that’s for sure. I also like his blog. I even have a very interesting book he wrote among a stack of other wx books,though I haven’t read any of them for a number of years.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Dang been so quiet lately lol. Kinda nice to get some work done. But looking forward to storminess soon!

[Tom]

What concerns myself  (as a snow/cold lover) about this current pattern and the one forecasted to change it back to the one we had just a few weeks ago is twofold. #1- These types of patterns ALWAYAS last longer then models show and what people like JB and some others think. Bias with JB and others, but the models simply struggle at long range with regime changes and these patterns are always buggers to break. #2- Once the pattern is broken, my fear is NW flow with little moisture as previously mentioned by another poster. But at this point in the game with .7" snow for DEC at my location; a Clipper producing 1-3" will seem like a pan handle hook. I value Tom's and others' thoughts on here but I don't see serious change until after the New Year - not before.  With the current forecast through 10 days - and  I think most would agree there are slim/none chances of accumulating snowfall - DSM will had 2.7" for the year and have to go back 12 years to 06-07' to find a lower amount through DEC 22 at 1.4" 

But there is good in the bad - just like anything else. It has allowed those who heat with wood the extra time to gather kindling and extra wood in the rather dry woods which is much more difficult with a deep snow cover. I just hope the snow eventually shows up.

 

After I read your comment, it brought me back memories to the terrible winter of '16/'17 where it seemed like the pattern changes never came and were always delayed.  With that in mind, and knowing the type of LRC pattern that set up the record setting season for the PAC NW, I learned my mistakes from that season.  Not to mention, the fact that the Long Term Long Wave Trough was NOT favorable for the majority of our sub that season and the pesky ridge kept on showing up relentlessly. 

 

On the flip side, this year's cyclical pattern is remarkably different and places the Long Term Long Wave Trough right across the MW/GL's region, just east of the central Plains of NE.  I think Gary Lezak also agrees with this idea.  Anyhow, I firmly believe the pattern change is coming and it will likely begin around the Winter Solstice period as I'm still expecting a northern tier runner coming off of the N Rockies into the Upper MW/GL's region.  There is still some question if a southern piece tries to run up from the southern Plains and phase with the northern piece.  Lots to digest over the coming 7-10 days as the models try to iron out this big shift in the overall N.A. pattern.

[Grizzcoat]

After I read your comment, it brought me back memories to the terrible winter of '16/'17 where it seemed like the pattern changes never came and were always delayed.  With that in mind, and knowing the type of LRC pattern that set up the record setting season for the PAC NW, I learned my mistakes from that season.  Not to mention, the fact that the Long Term Long Wave Trough was NOT favorable for the majority of our sub that season and the pesky ridge kept on showing up relentlessly. 

 

On the flip side, this year's cyclical pattern is remarkably different and places the Long Term Long Wave Trough right across the MW/GL's region, just east of the central Plains of NE.  I think Gary Lezak also agrees with this idea.  Anyhow, I firmly believe the pattern change is coming and it will likely begin around the Winter Solstice period as I'm still expecting a northern tier runner coming off of the N Rockies into the Upper MW/GL's region.  There is still some question if a southern piece tries to run up from the southern Plains and phase with the northern piece.  Lots to digest over the coming 7-10 days as the models try to iron out this big shift  in the overall N.A. pattern.

 

Very true. The big issues is when this big shift  occurs. Personally don't see it till later. IF it happens earlier then modeled - watch out. IF later- it will likely be NW flow for sometime. People must know (and most here understand) that a rather big snow event for many takes MANY things to be right-- not just a few. That's why if you have had a big snow event-- ever- (outside the  Lakes) consider yourself lucky. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

A good - wide spread- snow event lately in the Central PLains has been hard to come. I'am talking NE-IA-MN-IL-WI-MI-- all with 4"+ from the same event. Seems easy-- but recently seems almost impossible. 

[Snowshoe]

WWA issued for up to an inch of snow and

[St Paul Storm]

Light freezing drizzle here this morning. Temp of 26F. We still have 4” of snow depth, but with temps slightly above freezing starting tomorrow thru the weekend, it’s looking more and more likely that we’ll have a brown Christmas here.

[CentralNebWeather]

Our 3” snow depth will take a beating and disappear in the next week as we hit 40’s and low 50’s next week.

[Stormhunter87]

Lots of great input that's why signed up for this forum. Hating this pattern boring and warmish which if it was a day or two okay but blah. I will say the fv3 has gone crazy. A foot of snow in southern AL and LA. If that actually happened wow.

[Niko]

Cloudy n temps are in the 20s

 

Some snow lata today w accumulations of up to an inch possible

[Snowshoe]

Sad that i feel the need to report such meager snowfall but.... well here we are. 

 

 

 

0907 AM SNOW SPENCER 44.76N 90.28W
12/12/2018 M0.8 INCH MARATHON WI PUBLIC

0907 AM SNOW WAUTOMA 44.06N 89.28W
12/12/2018 M0.4 INCH WAUSHARA WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0908 AM SNOW STEVENS POINT 44.51N 89.56W
12/12/2018 M0.3 INCH PORTAGE WI CO-OP OBSERVER

 

[Jaycee]

Me walking in here like: 

 

 

 

...... 

 

 

 

......

 

 

[jaster220]

A good - wide spread- snow event lately in the Central PLains has been hard to come. I'am talking NE-IA-MN-IL-WI-MI-- all with 4"+ from the same event. Seems easy-- but recently seems almost impossible. 

 

Feb1-2  2015 was the last time I believe, unless the Nov 22 later that same year got Neb 4+

[BrianJK]

What's interesting is that should the much anticipated pattern change not occur or deliver around these parts, our historic December to remember could actually make another run at the least snowiest December.  Not sure if Tom or anyone knows where Chicago is officially at or that the record is, but something to keep an eye on.

 

In other new, leaves finally starting to drop off my stubborn tree.  

[Jaycee]

What's interesting is that should the much anticipated pattern change not occur or deliver around these parts, our historic December to remember could actually make another run at the least snowiest December.  Not sure if Tom or anyone knows where Chicago is officially at or that the record is, but something to keep an eye on.

 

In other new, leaves finally starting to drop off my stubborn tree.  

 

I picked a great year to move here! Lol ugh, maybe i'm the jinx.