December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

I've got a "sneak attack" coming at me possibly.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

Bring it on!

[jaster220]

Saw the tiniest of legit flurries falling when I was out at lunch. Certainly more December-like today with overcast and 30F

[jaster220]

End of the GFS run looks interesting.  Lots of cold area lurking around Christmas time and maybe some type of storm.  Obviously not looking at a specific run only, but a potential cold pattern for sure with maybe storminess..

 

All patterns break eventually. Matter of time. Timing's everything in life as they say. Could be that the timing of snow's return is perfect for somebody in this sub. 

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

GFS says "Ho Ho Ho" just in time for Santa's reindeer..

 

[jaster220]

I now have a "non-zero chance" of accum's Wed. GEM is the most generous showing 1.5"  but then circles SMI with snow on the weekend, lol. This would suck, and also might be the hardest trick to pull-off

 

[jaster220]

ICON likes OKwx for a Friday morning thump-down

 

[jaster220]

Then goes on to thump me in the wee hours of Saturday morning. This makes 2 models showing at least some snow with this storm..hmm

 

[jaster220]

Jelly. Peppers OKwx's region with some spots of purple.

 

[jaster220]

Will be a total laugh-fest if this turned into a decent snow-maker for some peeps.

[Andie]

Geez, Eastern Okla. is in the crosshairs so far. Can North Texas be far behind?

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

GFS says "Ho Ho Ho" just in time for Santa's reindeer..

 

Snowblower is ready to go.....on standby waiting.

[Niko]

Currently at 23F w partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

Just for giggles, if anyone who has GFS snow maps out to d15 could show it for the eastern sub, that'd be gr8

[jaster220]

0z GFS colder @ h36 for Chicago snow potential.

 

Edit-@ h42 still snowing at Tom's place..

[Niko]

Just for giggles, if anyone who has GFS snow maps out to d15 could show it for the eastern sub, that'd be gr8

[Grizzcoat]

CMC is interesting for many but it's also highly likely wrong...

[jaster220]

Yeah, GEM's chucking 'em deep, tho ICON has now joined as it's side-kick

[Tom]

Last nights Euro Weeklies are continuing to suggest the flip towards a colder and more active period right around the Winter Solstice and continuing through the holidays.  This fits the LRC and puts our sub right in the middle of the action.  What is very intriguing to me, is how strong the SE ridge is showing up on the Euro Weeklies.  How strong will it become???  Most of the modeling is seeing a -PNA pattern develop post 21st and lasting through the end of the month which would ideally place an active storm track across the central CONUS.  Even through we are seeing erratic operational runs of late, esp the GFS in the longer range, I wouldn't be discouraged of the opportunities for a white Christmas.  I will say, there is going to be one heckova battle zone shaping up from TX all the way up into the OV/GL's post 21st.  Fierce cold will try to penetrate south while the STJ ramps up during the holidays...it should be a busy period forthcoming.

 

 

[Tom]

Actually, last night's 00z GEFS are flashing a snowy pattern Week 2 for a lot of us...

 

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w temps at 27F.

[Tom]

@BAMWx is also on board with the idea of an active pattern heading into Week 2...very similar thinking to where I believe we are going and fits the LRC pattern quite well.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

After this short break, let's lock in and rock and roll. I'm a happy camper folks.

 

Andie, you ready for winter yet? You'll likely see quite a bit of it too.

[OKwx2k4]

Actually, last night's 00z GEFS are flashing a snowy pattern Week 2 for a lot of us...

 

GFS/GEFS has a north bias at this lead so I know what that map means. Holy moly. I've been expecting this since July but if what I think happens, it will still be pretty darn incredible.

[CentralNebWeather]

@BAMWx is also on board with the idea of an active pattern heading into Week 2...very similar thinking to where I believe we are going and fits the LRC pattern quite well.

 

 

Great work as always Tom.  It is good to be northwest of the battle zone.  Bastardi had another good video today about what he sees occurring in the next 6 weeks or so and lines up with what you are showing.  Looks like late Dec. - Jan. could be memorable with the cold.  He mentions 1965-1966 as a year that lines up well that had brutal January cold.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks for rooting for me, everyone. You folks are awesome. I don't say that enough.

[Tom]

Thanks for rooting for me, everyone. You folks are awesome. I don't say that enough.

You'll like the Euro Weeklies then...giddy up brah!

 

[Tom]

Great work as always Tom.  It is good to be northwest of the battle zone.  Bastardi had another good video today about what he sees occurring in the next 6 weeks or so and lines up with what you are showing.  Looks like late Dec. - Jan. could be memorable with the cold.  He mentions 1965-1966 as a year that lines up well that had brutal January cold.

Thank you sir!  Yes, I agree with you that its best to be on the northern edge of the battle zone. If you look back on Oct 30th thru Nov 2nd, there was a frontal boundary draped across KS/MO into the lower GL's with multiple waves of energy that tracked along this frontal boundary.  Imagine with all the cold air potential showing up and if these waves develop into strong storm systems, boy, it could get pretty darn wild for some peeps on here.  This period I believe is cycling back right around Christmas.

[OKwx2k4]

You'll like the Euro Weeklies then...giddy up brah!

 

Ummmm....just WWWOOOOOWWW!!!

[St Paul Storm]

The GEM has to crash and burn sometime soon, doesn’t it? Still showing a good swath of snow from MO up to WI. Now inside 72 hours and it’s the only model showing it.

[Clinton]

The GEM has to crash and burn sometime soon, doesn’t it? Still showing a good swath of snow from MO up to WI. Now inside 72 hours and it’s the only model showing it.

It would make for a wild Chiefs game for me Thursday night!

[Minny_Weather]

The GEM has to crash and burn sometime soon, doesn’t it? Still showing a good swath of snow from MO up to WI. Now inside 72 hours and it’s the only model showing it.

Idk man, hard to argue its consistency 

[hlcater]

Latest runs of the GEFS are trending just going straight to NW flow after this pattern change. That’s not much better than what we have now if you’re not from the Great Lakes. Going from average T and dry to below average T and dry.

 

Odds of a brown Christmas here are probably 75%. Pattern just isn’t favorable.

[GDR]

[bud2380]

The 12z Euro has almost no snow in the continental US for the next 10 days outside of mountainous areas.  Some very light snow amounts elsewhere and one splotch of heavy snow near Dallas, that is probably a fluke.  Need that pattern change to come soon to get a white Christmas for most of us. 

[Tom]

The 12z Euro has almost no snow in the continental US for the next 10 days outside of mountainous areas.  Some very light snow amounts elsewhere and one splotch of heavy snow near Dallas, that is probably a fluke.  Need that pattern change to come soon to get a white Christmas for most of us. 

The system which I believe will be the lead storm that ushers in the pattern change will be around the Winter Solstice.  Today's 12z Euro showed a strong PAC wave traversing the N Rockies and this fits with what I had mentioned a couple days ago.  Should be a northern tier storm but then the cold comes into the picture with additional chances Christmas week.  

[Thunder98]

Blah pattern everywhere.

[Madtown]

^Curse of the ice rink...lol

[badgerwx]

Im so conflicted. I see the CPC's 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks and see nothing but above normal temps across the country. But yet I get excited at the talk of a change around the Winter Solstice and a stormy pattern developing. Really hoping for a White Christmas in SW Wisconsin!

[Andie]

After this short break, let's lock in and rock and roll. I'm a happy camper folks.

Andie, you ready for winter yet? You'll likely see quite a bit of it too.

I'm amazed. Here It comes.

I'm getting last bit of outside work done, Monday. (Hey, it's Texas). We're always late to the party.

[Stormy]

A local met says....."evidence is growing that a stratospheric warming event is in the works. Major models are now unanimous displacing the Polar Vortex and spilling polar air into the lower 48 close to Christmas. The colder air could be accompanied by some holiday snow but it all comes down to timing and placement, no way of narrowing down any locations yet as the pieces in the pattern are still moving around. Something we'll keep and eye on in the coming week." One caveat.... "the MJO is not forecast to be in its cold phases as it was last Christmas when a similar strat warming produced lows of -22, -24, and -23 December 31st-January 2nd here in Cedar Rapids. This year the MJO is projected by the EURO to be in phase 4 which has a strong tendency to be mild over the country in both December and January."

 

"What this means is that the advertised cold is likely to be far less intense than last year. It may also be short in duration or come in short weaker bursts. If we were in phase 1 or 8 I would be concerned about a major Arctic outbreak. But 4 leaves some significant doubt in my mind as to what the overall impact will be and for how long. Anyway, I thought I would address the stratospheric warming potential before you heard it on the grapevine. Whatever happens, the next 10-12 days look mild."