December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Stormhunter87]

As much as I want a white Christmas we have to do a ton of traveling. Hoping the storms are spaced out so I figure plans for it. One includes driving across Iowa I've done it twice, ice event and big snow event. I don't want to do that again. Lol

[Niko]

Been so long it hurt my eyes walking out for lunch today.  Felt great though, even if it's cold.  Calm wind.  

Feels awesome...WOOHOOOOO...the sun has returned.

[Minny_Weather]

As much as I want a white Christmas we have to do a ton of traveling. Hoping the storms are spaced out so I figure plans for it. One includes driving across Iowa I've done it twice, ice event and big snow event. I don't want to do that again. Lol

Right after I fly back from Texas on the 27th I'm driving to Dubuque on the 28th. Definitely wish this pullback was happening then instead of now.

[bud2380]

Euro and Canadian starting to latch on to a storm system in the day 8-10 time frame.  Euro spreads snow up in the plains including Omaha/Lincoln area before the main energy takes over down south bringing another southern snowstorm.  But that's day10 by then so lots to change.  

[Stacsh]

Euro and Canadian starting to latch on to a storm system in the day 8-10 time frame.  Euro spreads snow up in the plains including Omaha/Lincoln area before the main energy takes over down south bringing another southern snowstorm.  But that's day10 by then so lots to change.  

 

Certainly signals are there.  Enough Cold air?  Northern piece?  Something to watch.

 

Actually surprised how similar they are 8/9 days out.   

[indianajohn]

Feels awesome...WOOHOOOOO...the sun has returned.

We are stuck under clouds and some LES Flurries.....would be nice if we had some sun

[Minny_Weather]

Euro and Canadian starting to latch on to a storm system in the day 8-10 time frame. Euro spreads snow up in the plains including Omaha/Lincoln area before the main energy takes over down south bringing another southern snowstorm. But that's day10 by then so lots to change.

It's 10 days out but Euro had the track of the last storm nailed down pretty well. It's not bad to have that on my side here.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just looked up some weather cameras in North Dakota.  Many places have no snow on the ground or just a trace.  Rarely do you ever see Nebraska have a good snowpack and North Dakota have nothing.  The negative would be not building the glacier as Tom likes to say for future cold air invasions.  Just a thought and an interesting look.  Here is the link if you would like to look.

 

https://www.safetravelusa.com/nddot/

[snowstorm83]

Right after I fly back from Texas on the 27th I'm driving to Dubuque on the 28th. Definitely wish this pullback was happening then instead of now.

 

Same. I'm going to be gone for the second half of December. Most won't agree, but I'd rather have a mildish pattern here until new years. But that will also probably mean like 75 in MS on Christmas, and that would suck too lol. 

[jaster220]

0z Euro with virtually nothing for most members of the forum in the next 240 hours (10 days).  

 

If you like watching paint dry you’re gonna love the next 16 days according to the GFS!

 

Unexpected light snow falling most of the morning. No radar returns however.

 

240/384 hours of pure zzzzzzzz on the models isn’t what I’d call a ‘December to remember’.

 

With all the busy-ness of the holidays upon us, I'm actually fine with the timing of this break. Dec '00 over here I remember fighting crowds AND THE WX instead of being able to relax and enjoy that historic period. Besides, despite what Niko posted, bare ground and cold allows the soil temps to get down where we need them to sustain all kinds of snow fall types, even the lighter LES. This non-stop snowing was fun but unsustainable (we ain't the Keewenaw). We put up a ton of points and now it's half-time. Will be great if we kick-off the 2nd half just in time for Christmas week. Just my 2 cents

[jaster220]

There's gonna be a Christmas blizzard this year cuz I'll be in Houston for Christmas.

 

Well if there is one, since y'all got '09 I'm hoping it'll be our turn out east in the Lakes - Cheers!

[jaster220]

Autumn wrap-up for SWMI

 

[jaster220]

Look at Nebraska go! Nice snow cover, except for that donut hole mid-state. I lived in one of those in SEMI circa winter of 87-88. Sucks biggly for anyone there

 

[westMJim]

@ Jaster One of the bigger wide spread snow storms on Christmas Eve into the early morning hours of Christmas day happened  in 1965; The ground was bare during the daylight hours of December 24th the snow started late at night and there was a strong NE wind and any were between 6 to 10 inches fell across much of lower Michigan 

[westMJim]

We are in Charleston WV,  We ran into clouds in far southern Michigan and it was cloudy all the way. And from just north of Columbus OH there were on and off snow showers. At this time there is a WWA just south of here. The last temperature from the car was 33

[Minny_Weather]

Same. I'm going to be gone for the second half of December. Most won't agree, but I'd rather have a mildish pattern here until new years. But that will also probably mean like 75 in MS on Christmas, and that would suck too lol.

This will be only my second Christmas in TX (I go to CA most years) but both 2015 and 2016 featured 80 degree Christmases in Houston. The one year we did stay home in Houston for Christmas, we were under a flash flood warning and the power was out the whole day. No thanks.

[Niko]

Clear skies and cold w temps at 24F.

[Niko]

With all the busy-ness of the holidays upon us, I'm actually fine with the timing of this break. Dec '00 over here I remember fighting crowds AND THE WX instead of being able to relax and enjoy that historic period. Besides, despite what Niko posted, bare ground and cold allows the soil temps to get down where we need them to sustain all kinds of snow fall types, even the lighter LES. This non-stop snowing was fun but unsustainable (we ain't the Keewenaw). We put up a ton of points and now it's half-time. Will be great if we kick-off the 2nd half just in time for Christmas week. Just my 2 cents

Jaster...I agree w ya 100%. Come to think of it, I got stuff to do in my garage and outside, so it could not have been a betta time.

[OKwx2k4]

Great NAM run. Can't wait til 6 AM. This storm is going to smash me. I can't wait.

 

 

 

Thank you for the well-wishes up there. The next few days will be exciting for sure.

[Stacsh]

And just like that a meso-low could drop an inch or 2 by sunrise. Oh the joy of cold air vs warm water.

[OKwx2k4]

This storm down here may be one for the books after it's all said and done. NAM strongest with a history making storm with FV-3 GFS holding the award for consistency. Either way, "highly impactful" would be a good term for what is coming my way, in my opinion.

[james1976]

This storm down here may be one for the books after it's all said and done. NAM strongest with a history making storm with FV-3 GFS holding the award for consistency. Either way, "highly impactful" would be a good term for what is coming my way, in my opinion.

Good luck man! It's your turn!

[Andie]

Enjoy OKwx!

 

We'll get rain most likely, but cold rain. Everyone cross your fingers my heat is repaired today.

[Niko]

Currently at 23F w beautiful, sunny skies. AHHHHHHhhhhhhh!

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Between 18-00Z Thursday as the front sinks toward the state line, another wave
will round the base of the trough through the Ohio Valley. Models
are now trending a little farther north with the northern extent of
the deformation band which runs up into the frontal surface. This
would result in more than the flurries or light showers forecast for
the bulk of the CWA. NAM is the most bullish but now has support
from the EURO and Canadian thus increased pops, and added minor QPF
and snow accums.

 

 

Looking interesting indeed. I think it gets better sampled per the hires models as we get closer to the event. South I-94 needs to watch this.

[Stacsh]

NOAA:

 

Between 18-00Z Thursday as the front sinks toward the state line, another wave

will round the base of the trough through the Ohio Valley. Models

are now trending a little farther north with the northern extent of

the deformation band which runs up into the frontal surface. This

would result in more than the flurries or light showers forecast for

the bulk of the CWA. NAM is the most bullish but now has support

from the EURO and Canadian thus increased pops, and added minor QPF

and snow accums.

 

 

Looking interesting indeed. I think it gets better sampled per the hires models as we get closer to the event. South I-94 needs to watch this.

 

Not far enough north for me on this one,  but I received 2" last night of  lake effect which was a surprise.  So many accidents this morning on my way to GR for work.  People were caught off guard on the road conditions.  

[Minny_Weather]

Great NAM run. Can't wait til 6 AM. This storm is going to smash me. I can't wait.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

 

namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

 

Thank you for the well-wishes up there. The next few days will be exciting for sure.

I'd be concerned about thermals if I were you. That's gonna be a bytch.

[Niko]

Not far enough north for me on this one,  but I received 2" last night of  lake effect which was a surprise.  So many accidents this morning on my way to GR for work.  People were caught off guard on the road conditions.  

I have seen the confluence factor destroy many potential events in the past, but lets see what happens.

 

Congrats on ur 2".

[CentralNebWeather]

We have relatives from KC coming here for Christmas on the 21st.  Last year they drove on ice to get here then we got really snowy and cold.  Will there be a repeat?  Around here Christmas weather can vary greatly.  There have been Christmases where it was so warm we opened the windows and wore shorts and we played two touch football in the yard.  Others have been so snowy and cold we were stranded, 2009 anyone.  Nothing will surprise me around here.

[james1976]

Long range GFS is mild and dry. Not that that cant change. Only thing that looks interesting right now is a system that may effect the GL 13-14th.

[Niko]

Long range GFS is mild and dry. Not that that cant change. Only thing that looks interesting right now is a system that may effect the GL 13-14th.

Looks like a warm system

[Stacsh]

Looks like a warm system

 

yep Euro temps are wayyyy too warm north of that system. 

[jaster220]

@ Jaster One of the bigger wide spread snow storms on Christmas Eve into the early morning hours of Christmas day happened  in 1965; The ground was bare during the daylight hours of December 24th the snow started late at night and there was a strong NE wind and any were between 6 to 10 inches fell across much of lower Michigan 

 

Thx westMJim. I remember my dad mentioned one Christmas they came out from mid-night services and the snow began falling right then. Must've been the year. I believe that to be the same Christmas my mother had prepared a huge feast for all my dad's relatives expected to come up from the Detroit area for the annual gathering. But, they were all city folks not used to much winter adventures and none of them showed up - not one single person. Needless to say that storm did not go over well with my mother. It was her chance to host all the relatives in her new place and that storm was a major buzz-kill no doubt.  

[jaster220]

Looks like a warm system

 

yep Euro temps are wayyyy too warm north of that system. 

 

That was a rainer for us from the get-go. Next

[jaster220]

As a footnote for us Mitt peeps, our 1st snowstorm of Cycle-1 would've been the Nov 1st OHV classic tracker. Ofc, it was 41F and rain here at KJXN. D*amned cold for November 1st but ofc about 10 deg's too warm for a good snowstorm. That was ~3 weeks into the new LRC. Just food for thought and aligns well with Tom's thoughts yesterday morning of something perhaps brewing up around the weekend before Christmas. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro has really backed off on any storm around here and on east through the Great Lakes in the next 10 days.  That takes us to the 15th of the month.  Hopefully the time after that starts a stormy pattern for many on here.  We'll see

[Minny_Weather]

Snowpack has been obliterated by the sun and temps near 40 today. Eastern side of the city has almost nothing left.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snowpack has been obliterated by the sun and temps near 40 today. Eastern side of the city has almost nothing left.

That is too bad. We are doing all right here in Central Nebraska, enough cloud cover and only to 35 helped. Cold now for awhile but if warming comes back next week, we would need a storm before Christmas to be white. Not much to ask, is it? Ha.

[snowstorm83]

Crazy thing is that we could have no measurable precipitation for the rest of the month and still be above average for December since we got 1.50" in the first two days haha. 

[Minny_Weather]

That is too bad. We are doing all right here in Central Nebraska, enough cloud cover and only to 35 helped. Cold now for awhile but if warming comes back next week, we would need a storm before Christmas to be white. Not much to ask, is it? Ha.

Sucks cuz I was hoping for a solid snowcover for this next little cold blast. Now all we have is a patchy snowcover. Ugly to look at. I'd rather see bare grass tbh.