December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half  

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and temps at 29F w a dusting earlier today.

[Stacsh]

Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half

Don’t look at the 00z runs. Gonna be quite awhile until there’s something to even track. El Niño rearing it’s head? I’m no expert but yawn.

[Niko]

Don’t look at the 00z runs. Gonna be quite awhile until there’s something to even track. El Niño rearing it’s head? I’m no expert but yawn.

Agree

[Niko]

That was a rainer for us from the get-go. Next

Even Montreal, Ca gets rain.....if there is even a next...

[westMJim]

We are in Savannah, GA it is clear here this AM with some light frost. On the trip from Charleston WV to here yesterday there was just over 2" of new snow at Charleston and there was snow on the ground and falling until past the 2nd tunnel in Virginia, The rest of the trip was partly cloudy and rather cool for down here, One item of note is that there are still leave on the trees South of Charlotte NC with some good color left,  

[Tom]

I haven't been posting much lately but this morning I've decided to chime in on some latest trends in the models for the potential of a large storm system across eastern portions of our sub later next week.  At this range, the ensembles are getting somewhat excited for developing an OV/Lower Lakes cutter.  I've noted before, that the blocking pattern setting up across Hudson Bay/E C.A. is ideal to produce a favorable storm track across portions of our sub and it's likely going to deliver.  This will not be the last storm to track before the Winter Solstice.

 

So, while we endure a chilly week/weekend ahead, and our southern friend @Okwx gets to enjoy his first snow of the season, our "pullback" is on the table next week but that doesn't mean we will lack tracking any storm systems.  This year's LRC pattern has flashed its moments of relaxation, but don't get used to it as I believe a busy period is forthcoming leading us up to the Winter Solstice and the holiday season.

 

As for the next storm system that our eastern sub members will likely track, I believe its directly related to the Oct 19th-20th MW/GL's deep trough which brought intense snow squalls and very strong winds across the region.  It's not a surprise to me the operational and GEFS ensembles are flashing some pretty strong members.  I'm not going to focus on thermals at this range even though its going to be an issue depending on how strong this storm ends up becoming.  Nonetheless, the 14th-16th period has been on my calendar and there will be a storm to track.  Let's hope we can score a winter storm out of this.  On a side note, I just realized this period will be another weekend storm.  It's crazy how many big storms have hit on the weekend this season so far.

[St Paul Storm]

Some light snow falling again this morning, for like the 4th time this week. Current temp of 19F but that’s the high for today as CAA is on the move. Currently -2F in Fargo. We should bottom out around 0F tonight. Snow depth is 4”.

[Tom]

Some light snow falling again this morning, for like the 4th time this week. Current temp of 19F but that’s the high for today as CAA is on the move. Currently -2F in Fargo. We should bottom out around 0F tonight. Snow depth is 4”.

That's awesome man.  I just took a stroll around the neighborhood and you can feel the CF has swept through as CAA heads our way.  Ya, your snow should stick around for a while.  The warm up coming should keep your night time temps up but day time temps shouldn't really jump that much above freezing.  I bet it's frozen concrete.  We still have a lot of snow piles left over with plastered leaves frozen to them and provides a little bit of snow cover...not!

[BrianJK]

Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half

Bingo. I had about 15” in November and as of 12/1 had basically nothing to show for it. Since then it’s been mild and wet, cold and dry, and now looking like mild and dry to come.

[Tony]

I know there isn't much to track for most of us on this sub-forum but you have to remember that winter has just started. By being spoiled with the November snows we would want it to continue but I think most of us knew that we were pretty darn lucky to get so much so early. This pullback is no big deal as I truly believe that once we start tracking storms again that winter will lock in and will be a memorable one for many. Even the snowiest years from "77-79" had its lulls but once winter locked in it came with a vengeance and stuck around for quite some time.

 

Let the south get their storm as I would rather have them get it than the Northeast. Can't wait for the fun to begin so enjoy the quiet for now and get ready for a powerhouse winter!

[Tom]

@ Clinton, you get any snow from the frontal disturbance?

[hlcater]

I haven't been posting much lately but this morning I've decided to chime in on some latest trends in the models for the potential of a large storm system across eastern portions of our sub later next week.  At this range, the ensembles are getting somewhat excited for developing an OV/Lower Lakes cutter.  I've noted before, that the blocking pattern setting up across Hudson Bay/E C.A. is ideal to produce a favorable storm track across portions of our sub and it's likely going to deliver.  This will not be the last storm to track before the Winter Solstice.

 

So, while we endure a chilly week/weekend ahead, and our southern friend @Okwx gets to enjoy his first snow of the season, our "pullback" is on the table next week but that doesn't mean we will lack tracking any storm systems.  This year's LRC pattern has flashed its moments of relaxation, but don't get used to it as I believe a busy period is forthcoming leading us up to the Winter Solstice and the holiday season.

 

As for the next storm system that our eastern sub members will likely track, I believe its directly related to the Oct 19th-20th MW/GL's deep trough which brought intense snow squalls and very strong winds across the region.  It's not a surprise to me the operational and GEFS ensembles are flashing some pretty strong members.  I'm not going to focus on thermals at this range even though its going to be an issue depending on how strong this storm ends up becoming.  Nonetheless, the 14th-16th period has been on my calendar and there will be a storm to track.  Let's hope we can score a winter storm out of this.  On a side note, I just realized this period will be another weekend storm.  It's crazy how many big storms have hit on the weekend this season so far.

Looks to be a pretty warm system. GFS OP actually wraps some cold air in on the northwest side, but no other model is though.

[Clinton]

@ Clinton, you get any snow from the frontal disturbance?

Just a light dusting here, but about 30miles to my NE got 2in.  I'm liking the looks for a big one next weekend for the forum.

[james1976]

Looks like GFS is a bit further west and colder for the 14th-16th storm. 850s looked better anyway but idk what surface temps look like.

[Hawkeye]

Much of the snow down south, from nw Texas through MO/AR, has really diminished on recent model runs.  All those GFS runs throwing a bunch of snow up into KS/MO were very wrong.

[jaster220]

yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting..

 

 

Bombs due north from there slamming The Mitt

[Stacsh]

yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting..

 

20181205 12z ecmwf_z500_mslp_216hr.png

 

Bombs due north from there slamming The Mitt

 

It does, until you look at the 850 temps.  Really needs to bomb and draw some cold air in.  

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 showing a storm towards Christmas here although it is an odd storm. Maybe a trough?

[Niko]

Bingo. I had about 15” in November and as of 12/1 had basically nothing to show for it. Since then it’s been mild and wet, cold and dry, and now looking like mild and dry to come.

Its the routine it usually follows...nothing new.

[Niko]

Currently, light snow and wind w a dusting as the Arctic front approaches. Lows tanite in the teens.

[Niko]

yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting..

 

20181205 12z ecmwf_z500_mslp_216hr.png

 

Bombs due north from there slamming The Mitt

Hopefully, it can pull its own cold air. My highs for that particular date are in the 30s, kinda marginal. I guess we will see what happens.

[Clinton]

Looks like GFS is a bit further west and colder for the 14th-16th storm. 850s looked better anyway but idk what surface temps look like.

 

12Z GFS has next week modeled pretty decent as we return to the Nov 6th-11th part of the pattern that gave me my first 2 accumulating snows of the season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12Z Euro is as quiet as I have seen for most of the forum members.  Would like it to jump on board with GFS.  Always feel better if the Euro is seeing something.

[OKwx2k4]

Anyone have a EURO of the snowstorm for my area? I don't have the subscription. Thanks!

[Grizzcoat]

Anyone have a EURO of the snowstorm for my area? I don't have the subscription. Thanks!

[Andie]

It's 50* light rain. And miserable.

 

More rain tomorrow all day.

 

I know you guys love cold, but I'm a Texan.....we dig sun baby !

[St Paul Storm]

Came home from work and saw a whole bunch of people running around frantically. Then I saw an ice breaker boat speeding up towards my shoreline. At first I was thinking ‘who the flip is this, and why are they ruining the ice?’ Turns out a cross country skier fell through the ice about 40 ft from the shoreline. The water is about 25 ft deep at that point. He had been in the water for about 25 minutes before someone found him and called for help. They got him out but he was in rough shape. I think the recent snow we had over the weekend was too heavy for the ice and made it pretty weak. I probably won’t be able to set up my ice rink this winter as the ice won’t refreeze nicely, but I’m glad he’s alive. Scary stuff.

[Grizzcoat]

St Paul Storm- your story doesn't surprise me,

I was up visiting my mom over last wkend. I grew up on a lake in the N Metro and she still lives there. Lake was entirely frozen over and I knew I could easily walk across it (about 1/4 mile in the narrowest part)  but thought better of it as it was only NOV and still early even with the recent cold. There were some spots that looked iffy in the same locations as usual but I never thought I would see what I did after that 2-3" of snow and strong wind come Sunday. Open water in those spots. This with 7" of clear ice in most other spots. Early ice is dangerous ice and I don't get it why people can't wait a couple weeks (even with mild temps) and allow the time for the latent heat stored in the bottom of the lake from the summer be released.... No rush.

[jaster220]

Came home from work and saw a whole bunch of people running around frantically. Then I saw an ice breaker boat speeding up towards my shoreline. At first I was thinking ‘who the flip is this, and why are they ruining the ice?’ Turns out a cross country skier fell through the ice about 40 ft from the shoreline. The water is about 25 ft deep at that point. He had been in the water for about 25 minutes before someone found him and called for help. They got him out but he was in rough shape. I think the recent snow we had over the weekend was too heavy for the ice and made it pretty weak. I probably won’t be able to set up my ice rink this winter as the ice won’t refreeze nicely, but I’m glad he’s alive. Scary stuff.

 

He's very lucky. I remember falling thru ice in a small pond when I was in grade school. It was just one leg, but that leg got good and soaked and it was well below freezing and a several block hike home with a boot full of ice water. The falling in came as a shock, and the icy water was a physical shocker adding to the mental surprise. As I recall I was all alone so it could've been bad if I went under without a buddy around to help me out. Ever since, I never really presumed ice to be safe, and would ride my sleds only where I knew the situation to be safe, never risking the edge of winter. Just not worth it. Glad you didn't have a tragedy to post about.

[Niko]

I had a few hvy snowsqualls earlier this evening as I was exiting the restaurant dinner. It did not amount to much, but roads did become slippery.

[Niko]

It's 50* light rain. And miserable.

 

More rain tomorrow all day.

 

I know you guys love cold, but I'm a Texan.....we dig sun baby !

[Niko]

Current temp at 27F w a few flurries still flying around. Lows dipping to 18F by morning. Wcf in the S.D's.

[jaster220]

Potent system, but needless to say, I'd not be a happy camper with a near miss east as depicted by the FV3 next Sat

 

[Niko]

Potent system, but needless to say, I'd not be a happy camper with a near miss east as depicted by the FV3 next Sat

 

[St Paul Storm]

Grizzcoat and Jaster.....good posts. I’m honestly shocked that anyone is out on the ice already. You can tell by looking at it that it’s not safe. The fire department said the ice was only one inch thick where the skier was pulled out. It was 4-6” in other spots. My rule of thumb is: don’t be the first person on the ice. It’s not worth it. Winter is a long season here. Better to wait and be safe.

[jaster220]

Definitely most models seeing a system about a week out. GFS brings it up the OH river as yet another psuedo-miller B. The snow shield JUST gets into SMI then it x-fers it's energy to the coastal and keeps it progressively moving eastward. Whereas the FV3 above and that Euro run from 05.12z bundle the energy dropping in from the north and do something of a merge-bomb in the E Lakes. Oh well, just something to amuse at this range..

 

[jaster220]

 

At this range, I'd have a hard time buying any of the more amped-up solutions since there's virtually zero precedent for a 970 mb low during any winter month south of The Mitt, but particularly in December. November may have had a couple (1913 White Hurricane and the Great Appalachian Storm of Nov 1950 are the two potential candidates) but I cannot think of one single GL's bomb in December. Just not our month historically speaking. One of the strongest Dec bombs was Dec 15, 1987 and that only got to 980 mb coming straight north from the Gulf states. It's just really hard to pull-off.

[Niko]

At this range, I'd have a hard time buying any of the more amped-up solutions since there's virtually zero precedent for a 970 mb low during any winter month south of The Mitt, but particularly in December. November may have had a couple (1913 White Hurricane and the Great Appalachian Storm of Nov 1950 are the two potential candidates) but I cannot think of one single GL's bomb in December. Just not our month historically speaking. One of the strongest Dec bombs was Dec 15, 1987 and that only got to 980 mb coming straight north from the Gulf states. It's just really hard to pull-off.

That 1913 White Hurricane sounds awesome. Wish we can get one like that today here in our neck of the woods.

[jaster220]

Verbatim, GFS has a pretty nice looking system for that same MO/IL/IN region that I've said would make out well this winter. Loses steam up my way as the transfer takes place. Hoping for a different outcome, but I might be bucking the seasonal trend in expecting it, lol