December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12Z models don't look much better today for a lot of snow.  Lots of moving parts as has been mentioned by many.  Hopefully that is worked out in the coming days.  Local tv mets around here are already talking about the Christmas holiday and how the chances of a white christmas are not looking great.  Still have 11-12 days, however.

[Stacsh]

Last frame of the Euro is hilariously quiet. 

[St Paul Storm]

That 12z Euro run is unbelievably quiet. Don’t ever recall a mid/late December snowfall map with that little snow.

[Minny_Weather]

The end of the GEFS run looks decent with troughing and a SW flow making its way back here.

[Andie]

The front is moving rather slow.  Any snow is falling between San Angelo and Abilene, southwest of DFW.

 

I'm still sitting at 51* and wind at 20 mph.  We'll see it pick up to 30 tonight with higher gusts.

But any snow will remain west where elevation is above 1100'

DFW is between 800' and 700' in Dallas.

 

Low of 42* and rain beginning tonight at 8.

A bit of a bust as fronts go, but it isn't January yet when we see the deeper cold.

[Tom]

The end of the GEFS run looks decent with troughing and a SW flow making its way back here.

12z EPS keeps looking better Christmas week with a solid SW Flow, but I think its bias is to strong with the trough in the west and the strength of the EC ridge.  It's flashing a massive post Christmas ridge like I saw last year in Feb at this range when the record setting ridge evolved.  I don't see such a strong and deep -PNA signal yet on the models.  Nonetheless, this fits the LRC quite well and we should start to see the operational models become quite active during this period over the next couple days I'd imagine.

[hlcater]

12z EPS keeps looking better Christmas week with a solid SW Flow, but I think its bias is to strong with the trough in the west and the strength of the EC ridge.  It's flashing a massive post Christmas ridge like I saw last year in Feb at this range when the record setting ridge evolved.  I don't see such a strong and deep -PNA signal yet on the models.  Nonetheless, this fits the LRC quite well and we should start to see the operational models become quite active during this period over the next couple days I'd imagine.

Post Christmas ridge where? I don’t have access to the 12z EPS but if you and LNK say they’re good, I’ll take your word for it:).

[Tom]

Post Christmas ridge where? I don’t have access to the 12z EPS but if you and LNK say they’re good, I’ll take your word for it:).

Basically, it's showing a solid ridge from the E GL's/OV region all the way east along the EC.  Primarily focused near the EC and New England.  The EPS looses the strength of the -EPO which I think it's wrong and why it parks a trough in the PAC NW towards late in Week 2. 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro weeklies are showing about as stereotypical El Nino as you can possibly get. May have a storm potential here around New Year's, but other than that it's NW flow and above average temps city.

 

Are the Euro weeklies usually ENSO biased? No way Nino rules the entire Winter.

[GDR]

48,49,50,52 next week! It’s time to fire up the grill.

[jaster220]

JB been talking recently how enhanced Thunderstorms in Indian Ocean translate to mild conditions in our neck of the 10+ days later. Well, Bay of Bengal is about to see a tropical cyclone. Hmm.Not good.

 

a few days back he thought that the current period of convection would die down sooner, but watching yesterday and now it indicated more close to the New Year just to go quiet in that region. His parallel pattern recognition with 02-03 so far has been really a close match and that Dec pull-back went into early Jan. Then everything was suppressed S and E of this sub. Only benefited Detroit as far as our peeps here. I think Marshall squeaked out one WSWarning for like 5-7" and it ended up 5" of super cold rime stuff. That season does  nothing for me and I'm seriously hoping the parallel in temp regime so far is a fluke.                           

[jaster220]

48,49,50,52 next week! It’s time to fire up the grill.

 

not sure we get as hot here, but still, what a waste of nice BN stretch that was actually getting the ground frozen around here. Even had some black ice in JXN this morning due to the frozen ground.

[Niko]

I saw snow today and walked on it for a bit. A town to my north (Romeo) picked up 3 inches this morning...wow. Nothing in my area. (Some MI peeps on here are probably familiar w this town). Anyways, drove up there today to set up my uncles new TV set and as I was driving, I kept seeing snow on the ground. By the time I got there (25 minutes drive by car), everything was snowcovered. I new this batch of snow had to have scrolled on through to my north.

[jaster220]

Euro weeklies are showing about as stereotypical El Nino as you can possibly get. May have a storm potential here around New Year's, but other than that it's NW flow and above average temps city.

 

Are the Euro weeklies usually ENSO biased? No way Nino rules the entire Winter.

 

Not sure if you mean for the next 2 wks, or now? Right now this feels more like 11-12, just plain blah! Even 16-17 had it's autumn-like rainers as all the snowstorms passed well NW of here repeatedly. I remember the tail-end of 11-12 (Feb) as every system looked like it should bring a decent snow to SMI but at the last minute WAA would win out and push the good stuff about 100 miles north. NMI actually finished strong that season, and they got the Dec '12 bliz as well. The one the Euro teased us with for about 3 days of runs until it caved and shifted the track right overhead. Not like we haven't endured this kinda stuff before, but it just seems I have less and less patience for this whole bi-polar winter stuff and all the flip-flopping around.

[jaster220]

Speaking of Nino-esque, these little fringe smatterings are a classic Nino trait around this region

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1042 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018MIZ039-040-045-046-141200-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0025.181214T0500Z-181214T1300Z/Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,and Mount Pleasant1042 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM ESTFRIDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze  expected.* WHERE...Osceola, Clare, Mecosta and Isabella counties.* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Friday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet orfreezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slipperyroads and use caution while driving.&&

[jaster220]

I saw snow today and walked on it for a bit. A town to my north (Romeo) picked up 3 inches this morning...wow. Nothing in my area. (Some MI peeps on here are probably familiar w this town). Anyways, drove up there today to set up my uncles new TV set and as I was driving, I kept seeing snow on the ground. By the time I got there (25 minutes drive by car), everything was snowcovered. I new this batch of snow had to have scrolled on through to my north.

 

While I don't find a single report on DTX's site, apparently some peeps in SEMI indeed got the flake treatment as you say.

 

Per Auburn Hills poster:

 

"So we got a half inch of snow last night. It is actually white outside. It was weird because we were driving home from Royal oak at 9pm. It was raining like mad and 37 degrees. As we approached 59 it was a solid mix at 34. Pulled into our driveway and it was 32 and all snow. Because it has been so cold, it all stuck."

[OKwx2k4]

Euro weeklies are showing about as stereotypical El Nino as you can possibly get. May have a storm potential here around New Year's, but other than that it's NW flow and above average temps city.

 

Are the Euro weeklies usually ENSO biased? No way Nino rules the entire Winter.

I agree. This is merely a break before real winter gets here.

[Niko]

While I don't find a single report on DTX's site, apparently some peeps in SEMI indeed got the flake treatment as you say.

 

Per Auburn Hills poster:

 

"So we got a half inch of snow last night. It is actually white outside. It was weird because we were driving home from Royal oak at 9pm. It was raining like mad and 37 degrees. As we approached 59 it was a solid mix at 34. Pulled into our driveway and it was 32 and all snow. Because it has been so cold, it all stuck."

It was a nice to finally see some snow on the ground and walk on it as well.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Just saw the radar buddy and looks like a big batch of green knocking on ya door.....same here n a temp of 33F, UGH, nice combo for mid Decemba.

[Minny_Weather]

I agree. This is merely a break before real winter gets here.

For you and maybe me it is, at least

[Tom]

The EPS and GEFS/GEPS are on opposite sides of what the EPO will do Christmas week.  EPS has trended towards a +EPO while GEFS maintain a -EPO along with the GEPS.  As a result, the EPS blow torches the eastern CONUS and keeps the west cold.  I really find that hard to believe but if its right, then the beat goes on.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says we could hit 60 degrees next week and almost every day through Christmas is 50’s. Fire up the lawn mower. Our December to remember is looking like one to forget weather wise.

[Tom]

Last nights Euro Weeklies difference for Week 3 in temp anomalies show how erratic models are behaving....

 

[Tom]

Alright guys, this period in time, is really going to be a big test of some long range forecasting tools I've used this season.  Some of them have done quite well and it's really no better time than now to test them out during a period where models are def struggling for the Christmas week period...hunker down, bc nature may or may not want to throw us a "curve ball".

 

One of the first places I like to look into are the 10mb height maps off the GEFS as they usually do quite well forecasting the upper levels of the atmosphere for the Week 2 period.  As we get closer towards Christmas week, the GEFS ensembles are becoming more aggressive for what will be a major SSW event and completely displace the Polar Vortex into Northern Eurasia and eventually into Northern Europe.  After reading Dr. Cohen's blog, we have not seen Major Mid-Winter Warming's in recent years as Splits of the Polar Vortex have been more common.  As a result, this will be an interesting period to study how this PV displacement evolves.  With that in mind, here are some graphics below showing various PV Displacements.  

 

 

If you look closely, I think figures B, D and E resemble what the GEFS are suggesting the 10mb pattern will do over the course of the next 10-15 days.  Here are the temp responses for the entire winter....as you will see, B & D are cold for the eastern CONUS but E are not.  Which one will dominate?  Odds are in favor it will result in a colder pattern for the eastern CONUS.  2 out of 3 support a colder regime and knowing what the LRC has set up for our sub forum I'd lean colder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another point I'd like to add, is the cross polar flow pattern which is shown off the GEFS 10mb maps below.  This should flood N.A. with extreme cold and notice the height rises across AK/NW NAMER.  I do believe a -EPO pattern should be the result and not a +EPO the 00z EPS are showing.  The waters hugging NW NAMER are still very warm and we are at the time of year you get a feedback response where a ridge should build.

[Tom]

The significance of the EC ridge in the extended may have some legs into the early part of January.  A recent rise in the ENSO 1.2 region support that idea, as well as, the rise in the SOI.

 

 

 

[Tom]

All these factors bring me back into early Oct when the LRC was setting up, that this year would not have that A-typical El Nino look and flash periods of a Nina look.  As a wx enthusiast, this will certainly be a learning period forthcoming.

 

Meanwhile, it's a foggy, damp, misty and cool morning around here and not quite the mid-December "feel" I was hoping for.  BTW, happy TGIF!!!  Make it a great day and let's see how the models trend in today's 12z suite.

[Grizzcoat]

Good stuff as always Tom. I hope your right with the -EPO , though with the EPS and GEFS/GEPS at odds over it signals to me a "transition" ( a push)  week (Christmas Week) with hopefully full fledged -EPO by the week of New Years. Being as warm as we will be entering Christmas Week (at least it appears that way) this will likely push that week slightly above normal for most also but that doesn't mean that in this transition we can't get a storm or two. 

[Andie]

Our front was a bust. The cold didn't manifest and we only received a trace of rain.

All that snow out west was contained to a brief shower north of San Angelo.

 

It will be windy today 20-30mph as the front progresses through and a high of 47*

 

Better luck next time.

[Stormhunter87]

So the past two runs the fv3 have put a pretty big storm here around the 27th and 28th. Of course the day we have to drive back from Illinois to Omaha. I want the snow but not during the drive.

[Snowshoe]

Was a decent start to winter. Not looking forward to the warm temps but a little sun will be nice. These foggy mornings are really starting to wear me down! 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

FV3 with a storm dropping 2' here on the 27th. Lock it in.

[Niko]

Current conditions here are foggy, drizzly, damp and mild w temps in the upper 30s. Highs today are projected to be in the upper 40s w sunshine in the pm hours. I would not be surprise if temps approach the 50s.

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 with a storm dropping 2' here on the 27th. Lock it in.

Would love that run.  Looks like we are set for warmth through Christmas.  Hope that changes post holiday.  Positive is that travel should be good leading up to the holiday.  We don't have to travel as relatives come here.  

[Minny_Weather]

Would love that run.  Looks like we are set for warmth through Christmas.  Hope that changes post holiday.  Positive is that travel should be good leading up to the holiday.  We don't have to travel as relatives come here.  

I'd be worried about travel then. I'm flying back here the 27th then driving to Dubuque the 28th.

[Niko]

Looks like a colder, snowier pattern developing at or after Christmas as my forecast is showing. Lets hope it does not change and gets delayed. It usually does in a El Nino pattern.

[BrianJK]

December going to be nuts. Postponed to the solstice. Postponed to Christmas. Postponed to NYE. Dejavu

[Tom]

December going to be nuts. Postponed to the solstice. Postponed to Christmas. Postponed to NYE. Dejavu

I agree with the bolded....nasso much with the rest....meantime, today's 12z GFS flashing that pretty west-based Greenland Block where it has blossomed in this pattern.  Like I said before, lot's on the table amigo.  Don't get frustrated just yet.  Let the models figure this out over the next few days.

 

[BrianJK]

I agree with the bolded....nasso much with the rest....meantime, today's 12z GFS flashing that pretty west-based Greenland Block where it has blossomed in this pattern. Like I said before, lot's on the table amigo. Don't get frustrated just yet. Let the models figure this out over the next few days.

 

I’m holding out hope bud, but should we go 0-fer between now and years end, it would be pretty nuts. Has ORD recorded anything for December so far?

[Tom]

Another key piece the models have been trying to figure out is the trough entering the 4 corners on the 18th. Yesterday, and a couple days prior, the models have been showing this energy track south into Mexico and cut-off from the main flow while a ridge blows up over the top.  Latest trends are showing a more progressive look which eventually kicks out east and tries to phase with the northern energy on the 20th/21st.  Both the Euro/GFS have been trending more progressive with this energy instead of it cutting off in Mexico.  This never happened in this year's LRC pattern and the flow always ejected energy eastward.

 

Here was yesterday's 12z GFS run....followed by today's 12z run...big differences in the overall flow...esp downstream...

[Tom]

I’m holding out hope bud, but should we go 0-fer between now and years end, it would be pretty nuts. Has ORD recorded anything for December so far?

I think maybe on the 1st or 2nd when we got backwash snow showers from the big storm to open December.  Not 100% sure.